Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 205

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.15 01:22

Federal Reserve Hikes Interest Rate, Dot Plot Sees Three More In 2017 (based on the article)


  • "The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its key interest rate for only the second time in a decade, by a quarter-point to 0.5%-0.75%."
  • "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year."
  • "Markets are expected to take today's rate hike in stride, but the outlook on interest rates for 2017 remains somewhat murky. The Fed's 'dot plots' now predict three rate hikes in 2017, one more than previously estimated."


 

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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2013.06.28 15:55

Well ... some questions and answers :

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Q: what is the most profitable pair to trade the news?

A: GBPUSD

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Q: what is the most risky pair to trade the news?

A: GBPUSD

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Q: what is the most stable pair to trade the news (consistantly profitable pair for trading news events)?

A: USDCAD

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Q: what is less risky pair to trade the news?

A: USDCAD

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Thanx for your attention

That's all news


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.17 13:41

Weekly Outlook: 2016, December 18 - December 25 (based on the article)


The dollar soared, in particular against the euro and the yen, as the Fed introduced its hawkish hike. A rate decision from Japan, GDP data from New Zealand, Canada and the US, as well as durable goods orders, stand out in the week leading to Christmas.

  1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 9:00. Economists expect both the Brexit vote and Trump’s election will take their toll on the economy at a later stage. German business German business sentiment is expected to climb to 110.7 this month.
  2. Japan rate decision: Tuesday. The bank expects to reach its inflation target only at 2018.
  3. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
  4. New Zealand GDP: Wednesday, 21:45. New Zealand’s growth rate for the third quarter is estimated at 0.8%.
  5. US Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 13:30. Economists expect core orders to climb 0.2% this time.
  6. US GDP data: Thursday, 13:30. US third quarter GDP is estimated to reach 3.3%.
  7. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 13:30. New jobless claims are expected to reach 255,000 this week.
  8. Canadian GDP data: Friday, 13:30. Canadian GDP is expected to gain 0.1% in September.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.17 14:27

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2016, December 18 - December 25 (based on the article)


EUR/USD dropped sharply on the Fed’s hawkish hike, reaching levels last seen around 14 years ago. Will it continue toward parity? A key German survey is the highlight in the week leading to Christmas.

  1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 9:00.
  2. German PPI: Tuesday, 7:00.
  3. Current Account: Tuesday, 9:00.
  4. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Wednesday, 14:00.
  5. Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 15:00.
  6. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00. The European Central Bank publishes the data that the Governing Council reviewed ahead of the recent rate decision.
  7. German GfK Consumer Climate: Friday, 7:00.
  8. French Consumer Spending: Friday, 7:45.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.18 06:23

The Week Ahead: Stock Market Forecasts And What To Do (based on the article)


"This table from the Wall Street Journal reveals their forecasts for 2017 and the high end at 2400 for the S&P 500 would imply just a 6.6% rise from current levels. If you want to learn more about the accuracy of their forecast I would suggest you read this excellent New York Times article by Jeff Sommer.  In reviewing the strategist's forecasts he quotes independent statistician Salil Mehta “It’s not easy to be as bad as they are."



 

S&P 500 price is on bullish market condition for 2270 resistance level to be tested for te bullish trend tobe continuing. By the way, the daily correction will be started if the market crosses 2200 to below on close daily bar, and the daily bearish reversal level is 2100 which is the level for Senkou Span turning level for now.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.19 07:01

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and 30 pips price movement

2016-12-18 00:00 GMT | [NZD - ANZ Business Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - ANZ Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers.

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From RTT News article:

  • "Business confidence in New Zealand picked up steam in December, the latest survey from NBNZ showed on Monday with an index score of 21.7."

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NZD/USD M5: 30 pips price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.19 11:26

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and 23 pips range price movement

2016-12-19 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers.

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From official report:

"The German economy is in a festive mood. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose in December to 111.0 points from 110.4 points in November. Assessments of the current business situation improved, reaching their highest level since February 2012. The business outlook for the first half of 2017 is also slightly more optimistic. The German economy is making a strong finish to the year."


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EUR/USD M5: 23 pips range price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.20 06:20

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 19 pips range price movement

2016-12-20 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

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From official report:

"There was still considerable uncertainty about the momentum in the labour market. The unemployment rate had declined over the past year, as had measures of excess capacity that accounted for the number of additional desired hours of work. Part-time employment had grown strongly over the previous year, but employment growth overall had slowed. Members noted that there was expected to be excess capacity in the labour market for some time, which was consistent with further indications of subdued labour cost pressures. This suggested that inflation would remain low for some time before returning to more normal levels."


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AUD/USD M5: 19 pips range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.21 04:14

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade and 21 pips range price movement

2016-12-20 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -815M
  • forecast data is -500M
  • actual data is -705M according to the latest press release

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From official report:


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NZD/USD M5: 21 pips range price movement by NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.21 16:54

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging bearish reversal, daily bullish ranging for direction

2016-12-21 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging bearish reversal. The price is located below 200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels.

If the price breaks 55.81 resistance level so the secondary rally will be started with 56.11 target to the bullish reversal.
If the price breaks 55.49 support so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.



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Crude Oil Daily: ranging bullish. The price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within 57.23 resistance and 53.12 support waiting for the bullish trend to be resumed or for the secondary correction to be started.


If daily price breaks 57.23 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 53.12 support level to below on close daily bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


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