Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 212

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.13 08:45

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Gross Domestic Product and 27 pips range price movement

2017-02-12 23:50 GMT | [JPY - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From japantimes article:

  • "The world’s third-largest economy grew 0.2 percent in the last quarter, from the previous quarter, according to preliminary data, the slowest pace for the year. Quarterly growth peaked at 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2016 and slowed from that rate."
  • "Japan’s economy expanded at a slightly slower than expected 1.0 percent annual pace in 2016, helped by an uptick in exports, the Cabinet Office reported Monday."

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USD/JPY M5: 27 pips range price movement by Japan Gross Domestic Product news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.17 07:04

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Retail Sales and 23 pips range price movement

2017-02-16 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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From official report:

  • "The total volume of retail sales rose 0.8 percent for the December 2016 quarter. This increase follows a 0.8 percent rise in the September 2016 quarter."
  • "In core retail (which excludes the two vehicle-related industries), the sales volume rose 0.6 percent in the December 2016 quarter, after a 0.2 percent rise in the September 2016 quarter."

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NZD/USD M5: 23 pips range price movement by New Zealand Retail Sales news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.20 14:49

EURUSD technical Outlook - bearish ranging within Fibo levels (based on the article)

Daily price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging between Fibo support level at 1.0521 and Fibo resistance level at 1.0828.
If the price breaks 1.0521 support so the primary bearish trend will be resumed, if the price breaks 1.0828 resistance so the secondary rally will be started, otherwise - ranging.
  • "A sharp Euro recovery stalled at a familiar chart barrier below the 1.07 figure, hinting that a corrective bounce from a monthly low may have been exhausted. Near-term positioning has favored the downside since prices broke through the floor of a bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern two weeks ago."
  • "Near-term support is in the 1.0518-28 area (November 24 low, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion), with a daily close below that exposing the 1.0341-67 zone (December 15 low, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a push above support-turned-resistance at 1.0682 opens the door for a retest of the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1.0828."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.21 07:02

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 21 pips range price movement

2017-02-21 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = Detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

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From macrobusiness article:

  • "As expected, the minutes of the February monetary policy meeting of the Board of the Reserve Bank provided little additional insight to the Governor’s post-meeting statement and the February Statement on Monetary Policy."
  • "We see nothing in these minutes to change our view that the official cash rate will remain on hold throughout 2017 and 2018. Markets continue to anticipate rate hikes in 2018 while a considerable number of commentators are predicting rate cuts in 2017. The middle course seems a much more likely outcome particularly given our view that growth momentum can pick up in 2017 but slow markedly through 2018 posing risks for the labour market and economic activity."

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AUD/USD M5: 21 pips range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.22 11:16

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Gross Domestic Product and 35 pips range price movement

2017-02-22 09:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

  • "UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.7% between Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2016 and Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2016, revised up 0.1 percentage points from the preliminary estimate of GDP published on 26 January 2017. Upward revisions (due to later data received) within the manufacturing industries is the main reason (these revisions were first published as part of the Index of Production for December 2016 released on 10 February 2017)."
  • "UK GDP growth in Quarter 4 2016 saw a continuation of strong consumer spending which is in line with the Retail Sales Index for Quarter 4, which grew by 1.2% (published on 20 January 2017) and strong growth in the output of the services sector with a notable contribution in consumer-focused industries. In Quarter 4 2016, there has been a slowdown within business investment which fell by 1.0%, driven by subdued growth within the “ICT equipment and other machinery and equipment” assets."

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GBP/USD M5: 35 pips range price movement by U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event

 


 

This chart was made by using he following indicators:

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.24 09:13

Dollar Index - ranging inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for the direction (based on the article)

Daily price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition: price is located within 101.74 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 100.39 support level for the bearish reversal to be started.


"Recent DXY updates have noted that “if a broader decline is underway, then resistance probably needs to register (again) near the channel line that has been resistance and support since Brexit…the 55 day average is up here too.” Resistance is holding and a possible head and shoulders top is evident and would confirm on a drop under the February low. Even then, trendline support registers below 98.00. Watch for range support near 99.80."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.26 13:27

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "U.S. economic data picks up next week with traders eyeing the release of Durable Goods Orders, the second read on 4Q GDP and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) - the Fed’s preferred gauge on inflation. Keep in mind we have a host of voting FOMC speakers on tap next week with Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Fed Governor Lael Brainard, Fed Governor Jerome Powell, Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer and Chair Janet Yellen slated for commentary. Continued strength in US data may further the argument for a March rate-hike as a growing number of central bank officials favor normalizing monetary policy “sooner rather than later.” That said, a fresh batch of hawkish commentary may curb demand for gold prices which have surged more than 9.4% year-to-date."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.02 08:50

Gold: bounced from 200-day SMA to 10-day EMA to below for the daily bearish trend to be resumed (adapted from the article)

D1 price is located near and below 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart for 10 EMA to be crossing to below with 1,226 support level as the nearest daily target to re-enter:

  • "Technically, gold prices have declined substantially after trading to yearly highs earlier in the week at $1,264.06. Now, prices are trading back below their 10 day EMA (exponential moving average), which is found at $1,244.54. A daily close below this average should be considered as a bearish turn in the market, and traders should note that gold prices have not closed below this line since January 30th of this year. If prices decline further, on continued US Dollar strength, gold traders may begin looking for support near the February 21st low of $1,226.23."
  • "It should also be noted that the US Dollar remain well above their 10 day EMA at 101.20, which should be considered as a value of ongoing support. In the event that the US Dollar turns lower on today’s news, traders should look for the market to trade back toward this average. In a bearish US Dollar scenario, prices should form a long wick reconfirming the previous point of resistance referenced at 101.69. Also in the event that the US Dollar gives back its previous gains, traders should reasonably expect gold prices to rally eliminating its prior daily losses."
If the price breaks 1,264 resistance level so daily bullish reversal will be started.‌
If price breaks 1,226 support so the bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels waiting for direction.

Resistance
Support
1,2641,226
N/A
1,180


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1,226 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1,264 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY: ranging

TREND: waiting for direction

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.06 07:23

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 16 pips range price movement 

2017-03-06 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From official report:

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.2% in January 2017. This follows a rise of 0.3% in December 2016 and a rise of 0.3% in November 2016."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.4% in January 2017. This follows a fall of 0.1% in December 2016 and a rise of 0.1% in November 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.08 08:10

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China CGAC Trade Balance and 99 pips range price movement 

2017-03-08 03:35 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 355B
  • forecast data is 173B
  • actual data is -60B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

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From theaustralian article:

  • "China’s trade balance for February has fallen short of expectations with a deficit of -60.4 yuan vs. 172.5bn surplus expected."
  • "Imports and exports both deviated from forecasts causing the swing, with import growth rising to 44.7 per cent vs. 23.1 per cent expected, while export growth fell to 4.2 per cent vs. 14.6 per cent expected, according to Bloomberg."
  • "The Australian dollar fell from US76.07 cents to US75.95 cents on the announcement, quickly stabilising with last read at US76.01 cents."

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USD/CNH M5: 99 pips range price movement by China Trade Balance news event


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