Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 171

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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.02 14:31

Quick Technical Overview - Hang Seng Index: ranging near 200-day SMA waiting for direction of the trend

Daily price is on bullish ranging near 200-day SMA 'reversal' level waiting for direction:

  • the price is on ranging within 200 SMA and 100 SMA;
  • if the resistance level at 21,666 will be broken by the price to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging;
  • if support level at 19,975 is going to be broken by the price to below so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started;
  • RSI indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing in the near future;
  • nearest support levels are 19,975 and 18,964;
  • nearest resistance levels are 21,666 and 23,350.


Resistance
Support
21,66619,975
23,350
18,964
  • if daily price breaks 21,666 resistance so the primary bullish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging;
  • if daily price breaks 19,975 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the levels.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.03 08:55

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Reserve Bank of Australia Cash Rate: 79 pips for USD/CNH and 141 pips for AUD/USD

2016-05-03 04:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Cash Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - RBA Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 per cent, effective 4 May 2016. This follows information showing inflationary pressures are lower than expected."
  • "The global economy is continuing to grow, though at a slightly lower pace than earlier expected, with forecasts having been revised down a little further recently. While several advanced economies have recorded improved conditions over the past year, conditions have become more difficult for a number of emerging market economies. China's growth rate moderated further in the first part of the year, though recent actions by Chinese policymakers are supporting the near-term outlook."
  • "Commodity prices have firmed noticeably from recent lows, but this follows very substantial declines over the past couple of years. Australia's terms of trade remain much lower than they had been in recent years."
  • "Sentiment in financial markets has improved, after a period of heightened volatility early in the year. However, uncertainty about the global economic outlook and policy settings among the major jurisdictions continues. Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain very low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative."
  • "Taking all these considerations into account, the Board judged that prospects for sustainable growth in the economy, with inflation returning to target over time, would be improved by easing monetary policy at this meeting."

==========

AUD/USD M5: 141 pips price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event :


USD/CNH M5: 79 pips price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event :



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.03 10:42

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Manufacturing PMI and 33 pips price movement

2016-05-03 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

  • "April saw the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) fall below the criticalno-change mark of 50.0 for the first time since March 2013. At 49.2, from a downwardly revised reading of 50.7 in March, the headline index was dragged lower by  lacklustre trends in production and new orders and declines in both employment and stocks of purchases."     
  • "The weakening performance of the manufacturing economy was mainly felt in the consumer and investment goods sectors, with both registering declines in production and new work received. Although the intermediate goods sector managed to sustain growth of output and new order inflows, rates of expansion were weaker than in the prior month."

==========

GBP/USD M5: 33 pips price movement by U.K. Manufacturing PMI news event :



 

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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for DAX Index

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.03 15:43

Quick Technical Overview - DAX Index: secondary correction within the primary bullish; waiting for breakdown

Daily price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition: the price was started with the local downtrend in the end of April this year.

  • Chinkou Span line is testing the price to below for the good possible breakdown to be started in the near future.
  • The price is breaking 10,055.8 support level to below on open daily bar for now for the secondary correction to be continuing.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the correction to be continuing with the possible bearish reversal on the future situation.
  • Bearish 'reversal' support level is 9,395.8, and if the price breaks this level to below so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition.


If daily price will break 10,055.8 support level on close bar so the secondary correction will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging bullish condition within the levels.


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.04 08:53

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Unemployment Rate and 36 pips price movement

2016-05-03 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Unemployment Rate]

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quarter.

==========

  • New Zealand’s labour force grows 1.5 percent, the largest quarterly growth since December 2004.
  • Employment growth exceeds population growth over the quarter.
  • The unemployment rate increased to 5.7 percent, from a revised rate of 5.4 percent last quarter.
  • Wage inflation remains subdued.

==========

NZD/USD M5: 36 pips price movement by NZ Unemployment Rate news event :



 

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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.04 13:14

Technical Analysis for Brent Crude Oil: intra-day bearish breakdown with secondary ranging; daily correction

H4 price is on breakdown with the bearish reversal: the price broke key support levels together with Senkou Span line to below for the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the ranging bearish market condition.

  • Chinkou Span line crossed the price to below for the breakdown to be continuing.
  • The price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the secondary ranging condition to be started.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition to be started in the near future.


Resistance
Support
46.37
44.60
48.25
44.24

If H4 price will break 44.24 support level on close bar so the bearish breakdown will be continuing without secondary ranging: the price will be fully reversed to the primary bearish market condition.
If H4 price will break 46.37 resistance level so the price will be reversed from the ranging bearish to the ranging bullish condition.
If H4 price will break 48.25 resistance level so the price will be reversed back to the primary bullish market condition to be out of the secondary ranging area.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

-

D1 price is on bullish condition located to be above Ichimoku cloud with the secondary correction to be started in the beginning of this month.

  • Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend.
  • The price is testing 44.24 support level to below for the correction to be continuing.
  • Bearish reversal level for the daily price is 37.25, and if the price breaks this level to below so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the correction to be continuing in the near future.


Resistance
Support
48.2544.24
N/A
37.25

If D1 price will break 44.24 support level on close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 37.25 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 48.25 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

-

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.04 13:36

Trading the News: ISM Non-Manufacturing (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

Despite the ongoing 9 to1 split within the Federal Open Market Committee, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may come under increased pressure to further normalize monetary policy at the next quarterly meeting June especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.’

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Climbs to 54.8 or Higher
  • Need red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: Gauge for Service-Based Activity Disappoints
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily


  • EUR/USD may make a more meaningful run at the August high (1.1713) as it breaks out of the triangle/wedge formation in April, but the pair stands at risk for a near-term pullback as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to push above 70 and appears to be turning around ahead of overbought territory.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.05 07:43

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and 19 pips price movement

2016-05-05 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -3.04B
  • forecast data is -2.90B
  • actual data is -2.16B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

==========

  • "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,836m in March 2016, a decrease of $250m (8%) on the deficit in February 2016."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,163m in March 2016, a decrease of $881m (29%) on the deficit in February 2016."

==========

AUD/USD M5: 19 pips price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event :



 

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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.05 15:05

New daily support/resistance levels was formed for now:

  • 1.1615 resistance for the bullish trend to be continuing if broken;
  • 1.1431 support for the secondary correction to be started (if this level will be broken by the price to below).


The bearish 'reversal' level is 1.1295, and of the price breaks this level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.06 06:17

Crude Oil Forecast: daily bullish reversal, weekly bear market rally  (based on the article)


"The Support Zone in focus after Thursday’s blast-off is the Wednesday low at $43.20. Wednesday's low is above the next level of support by ~$0.70 barrel at $42.48, which is the April 26 low that printed before pushing up to $46.75 to close the month. Below $42.48, there could be a quick drop to the 200-DMA, which would take a strong move lower down to ~$40/bbl. Given the significance of the Intermarket factors that have shifted since Oil broke above $40/ 200-DMA, only a move below there would change my bullish model."


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