Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 142

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.20 09:41

Trading News Events: GBP Jobless Claims Change (based from the article)

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

The recent comments from BoE Governor Mark Carney suggests that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is in no rush to lift the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low, and the board may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach at the next policy meeting on February 4 as the central bank head looks for signs of stronger inflation.

Nevertheless, the pickup in private-sector lending along with the rise in household spending may encourage U.K. firms to expand their labor force, and a positive development may spur a greater dissent within the BoE as central bank officials see a ‘solid’ recovery in the region.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish GBP Trade: Jobless Claims Increase, Household Earnings Slide

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short GBP/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors selling sterling, short GBP/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.
Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Job/Wage Growth Beat Market Expectations
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release

GBPUSD Daily


  • Longer-term outlook for GBP/USD remains tilted to the downside as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retain the bearish formations carried over from the previous year; will continue to watch the downside especially as the oscillator pushes deeper into oversold territory and approaches the lowest level since September 2009.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.4860 (78.6% retracement) to 1.4910 (61.8% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3870 (78.6% expansion) and 1.4000 pivot

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.20 09:44

GBPUSD M5: 40 pips price movement by GBP Jobless Claims Change news event:




 

USD/CAD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - bullish near 100 SMA/200 SMA ranging area

M5 price is on ranging to be near and above 100 period SMA waiting to break the levels for the trend following situation to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 1.4689 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging.
  • If price will break 1.4605 support so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.46891.4605
1.46941.4588



  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.4605 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4689 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging bullish

TREND : waiting for direction
 

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - waiting for the direction to break the levels

M30 price is located near SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for the ranging condition waiting for the direction to break the levels.

  • If the price will break 1.0975 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.0859 support so the bearish reversal will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
ResistanceSupport
1.09751.0859
N/AN/A

  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0859 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.0975 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction 
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.20 16:23

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BOC Overnight Rate and 133 pips price movement

2016-01-20 15:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

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"The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Inflation in Canada is evolving broadly as expected. Total CPI inflation remains near the bottom of the Bank’s target range as the disinflationary effects of economic slack and low consumer energy prices are only partially offset by the inflationary impact of the lower Canadian dollar on the prices of imported goods. As all of these factors dissipate, the Bank expects inflation will rise to about 2 per cent by early 2017. Measures of core inflation should remain close to 2 per cent."

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USDCAD M5: 133 pips price movement by BOC Overnight Rate news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.21 09:59

Trading News Events: ECB Interest Rate (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

The deviating paths for monetary policy continues to encourage a long-term bearish outlook for EUR/USD especially as the Federal Reserve pledges to implement higher borrowing-costs in 2016 but, the single-currency may face another short squeeze should President Mario Draghi endorse a wait-and-see approach for the first-half of 2016.

Nevertheless, bright signs coming out of the real economy may push the ECB to the sidelines, and the Euro may face a similar reaction to the December rate decision should the central bank scale back its willingness to implement more non-standard measures.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Boosts Bets for More Non-Standard Measures

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the policy statement to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bearish Euro trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.
Bullish EUR Trade: Governing Council Attempts to Buy Time
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily


  • Even though the long-term outlook remains tilted to the downside, EUR/USD stands at risk of facing choppy prices ahead of the ECB rate decision as it remains stuck in a narrowing range; single-currency stands at risk for another short-squeeze should the central bank talk down bets for more monetary easing.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1052 (November high) to 1.1090 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.21 10:00

EURUSD M5: 22 pips price movement by ECB Interest Rate news event :




 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.21 15:02

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey and 109 pips price movement

2016-01-21 13:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

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"The diffusion index for current activity increased from a revised reading of -10.2 in December to -3.5 and has now been negative for five consecutive months (see Chart 1 above). The index for current new orders remained negative but increased 10 points, to -1.4. Firms reported an increase in shipments to begin the new year: The shipments index increased 12 points, its first positive reading in four months. Firms reported continued declines in inventories: The inventories index remained negative and decreased 10 points. Firms’ backlog of unfilled orders also declined this month, and delivery times were shorter, according to the responding firms."

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EURUSD M5: 109 pips price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news event :



 

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.22 07:11

EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging for direction

H4 price is on ranging condition to be moved aroud Ichimoku cxloud waiting for the direction for breakout or for breakdown.

  • Chinkou Span line is located below the price indicating the ranging bearish market condition by the direction.
  • Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line for the bearish trend to be continuing.
  • The nearest support level for H4 price is 1.0777.
  • The nearest resistance levels are 1.0920 and 1.0984.
Resistance
Support
1.09201.0777
1.0984N/A


If H4 price will break 1.0777 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing without secondary ranging.
If H4 price will break 1.0920 resistance level so we may see the reversal to the primary bullish condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.0920 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.0777 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging

 

Crude Oil Technical Analysis: bear rally with intra-day bullish reversal

Intra-day price is located below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) in the primary bearish area of the chart. The price was on the bearish breakdown ansd it was stopped by 27.06 support level for the bouncing to be started: the price is on the local uptrend as the bear market rally by the symmetric triangle pattern to be broken to above for the rally to be continuing. The price is located within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 32.32 resistance level located near 100 SMA and below 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the ranging bearish market condition, and
  • 35.95 resistance level located near and above 200 SMA in the beginning of the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 27.06 support level located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

  • If the price will break 32.32 resistance level so we may see the ranging condition within the primary bearish with 35.94 target to re-enter.
  • If the price will break 35.94 resistance level so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 27.06 support so the primary bearish market condition will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
ResistanceSupport
32.3227.06
35.94N/A

The Medium-Term Strategy: watch close price to break 32.32 resistance level for possible buy trade. Alternateve - watch price to break 28.78 support level for possible sell trade.

The Long-Term Strategy: watch close price to break 35.94 resistance level for possible buy trade. Alternateve - watch price to break 27.06 support level for possible sell trade.
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.22 10:30

Trading News Events: Bank of Canada Core CPI (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish CAD Trade: Sticky Inflation Dampens Bets for BoC Rate-Cut in 2016

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on USD/CAD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish loonie trade, sell USD/CAD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish CAD Trade: Headline, Core CPI Fall Short of Market Forecast
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long USD/CAD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish Canadian dollar trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
USD/CAD Daily



  • Long-term outlook remains tilted to the upside USD/CAD amid the broader series of higher highs & lows in the exchange rate, but the sharp pullback in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may foreshadow a larger correction in the dollar-loonie as the oscillator comes off of overbought territory and fails to preserve the bullish formation from back in November.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.4660 (78.6% retracement) to 1.4730 (78.6% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3420 (38.2% expansion) to 1.3460 (61.8% retracement)

USDCAD M5: 57 pips range price movement by Bank of Canada Core CPI news event :


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.22 12:10

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Retail Sales and 56 pips range price movement

2016-01-22 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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  • "Year-on-year estimates of the quantity bought in the retail industry showed growth for the 32nd consecutive month in December 2015, increasing by 2.6% compared with December 2014.
  • The underlying pattern in the data, as suggested by the 3 month on 3 month movement in the quantity bought, showed growth for the 24th consecutive month, increasing by 1.1%.
  • Compared with November 2015, the quantity bought in the retail industry is estimated to have decreased by 1.0%.
  • When comparing the 2015 annual data with 2014, the quantity bought in the retail industry was estimated to have increased by 4.5%.
  • Average store prices (including petrol stations) fell by 3.2% in December 2015 compared with December 2014, the 18th consecutive month of year-on-year price falls.
  • The amount spent in the retail industry decreased by 1.0% in December 2015 compared with December 2014 and decreased by 1.4% compared with November 2015.
  • The value of online sales increased by 8.2% in December 2015 compared with December 2014 and decreased by 5.2% compared with November 2015.
  • Revisions to this release were caused by the incorporation of late data. The earliest revisions point for current price, non-seasonally adjusted data was December 2014. More information on revisions can be found in the background notes."

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GBPUSD M5: 56 pips range price movement by GBP - Retail Sales news event :



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