Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for USD/CNH - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.01 07:36

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and 53 pips range price movement

2016-11-01 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report:


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USD/CNH M5: 53 pips range price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.03 08:04

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Services PMI and 34 pips range price movement

2016-11-03 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Services PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

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From official report:


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    USD/CNH M5: 25 pips range price movement by Caixin Services PMI news event

     


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.07 13:39

    Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


    USD/CNH - "Event risks from home are expected to add volatility to Yuan rates as well. China’ foreign reverses, exports and CPI reads for October are the top indicators to keep an eye on. In September, China’s foreign reserves dropped -$18 billion to $3.166 trillion, the lowest level since May 2011. If the holdings continue to fall, China’s Central Bank is less likely to support the Yuan when it devalues against the Dollar as this will further burn foreign reserves. Also, China’s overseas shipments in Dollar terms unexpectedly shrank -10% in September. A weaker Yuan may have helped to ease the pressure on exporters: The Yuan lost -1.57% onshore and -1.58% offshore in October. In terms of the headline inflation, multiple Chinese financial institutions forecast that the CPI will rise back to above 2% in October. A higher CPI may reduce the odds of the PBOC introducing further easing measures, and thus, may support Yuan rates."


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.08 06:43

    USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and 29 pips range price movement

    2016-11-08 02:33 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

    [CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

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    From ForexLive article: China October trade balance: CNY +325.25bn (expected CNY366.61bn, prior CNY278.35bn)

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    USD/CNH M5: 29 pips range price movement by China Trade Balance news event

     


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.09 05:43

    USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Producer Price Index and 299 pips range price movement

    2016-11-09 01:30 GMT | [CNY - PPI]

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

    [CNY - PPI] = Change in the price of goods purchased and sold by producer.

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    From aastocks article: China Oct PPI Up 1.2% YoY, vs Estimates of Up 0.9%

    • "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed that in October 2016, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% monthly and rose 1.2% yearly, as compared to market expectation of rising 0.9% yearly; purchaser price index rose 0.9% monthly and 0.9% yearly."

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    USD/CNH M5: 299 pips range price movement by China Producer Price Index news event

     


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.16 14:59

    Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and NZD/USD: Producer Price Index (PPI)

    2016-11-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

    [USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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    From official report:


    "The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.3 percent in September and were unchanged in August. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 0.8 percent for the 12 months ended in October, the largest 12-month rise since advancing 0.9 percent in December 2014."

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    EUR/USD M5: 14 pips range price movement by Producer Price Index news events


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    USD/CNH M5: 46 pips price movement by Producer Price Index news events


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    NZD/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by Producer Price Index news events


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.19 11:42

    Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


    USD/CNH - "Yuan’s onshore borrowing costs have been moving closely along with Dollar/Yuan rates since October. We discussed that a weaker Yuan reduces onshore Yuan supply through purchasing foreign currencies, and therefore, increases the funding costs of the onshore Yuan (and vice-versa). The overnight borrowing cost in Shanghai interbank market (SHIBOR O/N) began to pick up in the mid-October following the Dollar/Yuan rally. Despite that the Central Bank injected a net of 95.5 billion Yuan liquidity in the week of October 17th to 21st and a net of 595 billion Yuan in the week of October 24th to 28th, the tightened condition was not eased much. In the following week, as the Yuan pulled back against the Dollar, the SHIBOR O/N dropped as well. The benchmark rate fell to its lowest level in a month on November 9th when Donald Trump surprisingly took the win in the U.S. presidential election. However, as the Yuan resumed losses against the Dollar, the borrowing costs picked up again. Over the past week, the PBOC added a net of 425 billion Yuan cash into the interbank market but did not stop the rally in SHIBOR. Continued Yuan weakness may further dampen China’s domestic liquidity condition."


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.28 15:30

    Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and US Dollar Index: ECB President Draghi Speech

    2016-11-28 14:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

    [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech about the European Central Bank's perspective on economic and monetary developments and the consequences of the Brexit before the European Parliament's Economic Committee, in Brussels.

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    From official release:

    • "It is, in fact, essential to further strengthen and develop the Single Market. In the area of financial services we have made significant progress. The Single Market for financial services is now supported by the Single Rulebook for banks and by common supervisory institutions. Within the euro area we went further with the banking union. As I have said, we are not at the end of this process. For instance, financial integration through a fully fledged Capital Markets Union could diversify financing sources for European companies. By fostering private risk-sharing, it can also contribute to a more resilient European economy."
    • "It is encouraging to see that recent opinion surveys show support for European integration increasing since the UK referendum, contrary to the expectations of many. At the same time, there are lessons to be learnt. The key lesson is that the European Union has to deliver on key objectives from the citizens’ perspective if it is to rekindle trust in the European project. And to address the widespread feelings of insecurity, including economic insecurity, the European project needs strong economic foundations. For the euro area economy, this means strengthening the recovery, preserving financial stability and addressing the remaining vulnerabilities of Economic and Monetary Union." 

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    EUR/USD M5: 14 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news events


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    USD/CNH M5: 29 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news events


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    US Dollar Index M5: range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news events


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.01 08:42

    USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Manufacturing PMI and 103 pips range price movement

    2016-12-01 01:00 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

    [CNY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

    ==========

    From steelorbis article:

    • "China’s manufacturing PMI increases to 51.7 percent in November Thursday, 01 December 2016."
    • "The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China’s manufacturing sector was at 51.7 percent in November this year, up 0.5 percentage points compared to October, as announced by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on December 1."

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    USD/CNH M5: 103 pips range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event



     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.18 12:16

    Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


    USD/CNH - "Within such context, Fed’s rate hike and multiple rumors on domestic bond defaults triggered panic selling in China’s bond market on December 15th: Chinese 5-year and 10-year government bond futures plunged and then halted in trading; the government bond yields, which have an inverse relationship with prices, hit a 15-month high. In order to ease the tension, the Central Bank added a net of 45 billion Yuan through reverse repos and 394 billion Yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) on December 16th; yet, SHIBOR in all terms were still rising on the day. Also, market demand in the Yuan will normally increase as it approach to the end of a year; Yuan’s supply through another source, in exchange of foreign currencies, showed continued declines. Taking into account all these factors, the PBOC may prioritize increasing Yuan injections in the onshore market next week rather than guiding the pace of onshore exchange rates, which leaves more room for the onshore Yuan to move in response to market pressures."


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