Press review - page 449

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)

XAU/USD Index - "U.S. 3Q GDP figures released on Friday showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.9% q/q, topping estimates for a print of just 2.6%. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, also beat consensus with a print of 1.7% q/q. Still, the data is unlikely to move the needle for the monetary policy outlook, with Fed Fund Futures still pricing in just a 17% chance of a hike this month as expectations for a December rate-hike hold decision steady at nearly 75%. For gold, the implications are for more sideways price action with next week’s event risk likely to charge considerable volatility in prices."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)

USD/CAD Index - "Next week brings two major economic prints that could certainly add volatility into the Canadian Dollar. On Tuesday, GDP numbers will be unveiled and on Friday, at the same 8:30 release as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, Canadian employment data for the month of October will be released to markets. On Tuesday Canadian GDP for the month of August will be released, and of recent this has become a disconcerting data point for Canada after July’s contraction of -.4%; and this followed a 2nd quarter print that also saw GDP shrink by -.4%. The expectation for GDP is to come in at a gain of .2%, annualized at 1.3%. Should this come in below expectations, we’ll likely see some additional CAD weakness enter the picture as markets factor in a slightly-higher probability of an eventual increase in QE."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)

USD/CNH Index - "Despite Yuan’s losses to the Dollar, the Chinese currency has maintained relatively stable against a basket of currencies, which meets China’s exchange rate target. As long as this target is satisfied, the Central Bank may continue to let the Yuan move in response to market pressure, which leaves room for the Dollar/Yuan to advance further. The regulator watches three Yuan indexes that measure Yuan’s value against a currency basket. The prints for this week will not be available until next Monday, but we can conduct some simple calculations to get a rough idea of Yuan moves against a basket of currencies. The four currencies, the U.S. Dollar, the Yen, the Pound and the Euro, take up the largest proportions in all three Yuan Indexes: 66.33% in CFETS, 53.50% in BIS Yuan Index and 100% in SDR Yuan Index. We can take a look at Yuan moves against these major currencies."

[Sergey Golubev]

DAX Index: Short-Term Levels for direction of the trend (adapted from the article)

H1 price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA ranging levels in the bullish area of the chart to be above 200 SMA levels.

• "In this choppy trading environment, turning views into money has proven difficult for the swing-trader; it’s been like this for several months now. But for traders who operate on time-frames of a couple of days or less (day-traders) there are still levels and technical developments which we can operate off of."
• "Dropping down to the hourly chart: A steady set of parallels (channel) is forming off the 10/25 highs. This keeps the immediate picture turned lower with lower highs and lower lows in place. The market needs to overcome the top-side parallel and Friday high at 10716 before any sort of upward momentum can potentially kick in. Beyond there we will look to 10773 and the year at 10827."
• "Continued trade below the upper parallel keeps the bias pointed lower to neutral at best, and could bring into play the Friday low at 10583 and a trend-line extending back to the 9/30 Deutsche Bank-induced swing low."

If the price breaks 10,707 resistance level on close hourly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 10,720/10,749 bullish targets.
If H1 price breaks 10,635 support level on close bar to below so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with 10,581 target.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
10,707	10,635
10,720	10,581

Trend:

H1 - bullish ranging

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate and 43 pips range price movement

2016-11-01 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.50%
• forecast data is 1.50%
• actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

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From official report:

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AUD/USD M5: 43 pips range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and 53 pips range price movement

2016-11-01 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 50.1
• forecast data is 50.2
• actual data is 51.2 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report:

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USD/CNH M5: 53 pips range price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and 25 pips range price movement

2016-11-01 12:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

• past data is 0.5%
• forecast data is 0.2%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

• "Real gross domestic product rose 0.2% in August, following a 0.4% increase in July. The output of goods-producing industries rose while service-producing industries were essentially unchanged."
• "The output of goods-producing industries grew 0.7% in August, with the main contribution coming from mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction and utilities. Manufacturing and construction were also up, while the agriculture and forestry sector was down."
  

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USD/CAD M5: 25 pips range price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY : Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

2016-11-01 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 51.5
• forecast data is 51.8
• actual data is 51.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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EUR/USD M5: 23 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

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USD/CAD M5: 19 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

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USD/JPY M5: 33 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Building Approvals and 36 pips range price movement

2016-11-02 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

• past data is -1.8%
• forecast data is -2.8%
• actual data is -8.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued.

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From official report:

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AUD/USD M5: 36 pips price movement by Australia Building Approvals news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Brent Crude Oil Intra-Day Technicals: breakdown or Rally? (adapted from the article)

H4 price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on breaking 47.83 support level to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing.

"Crude Oil prices have declined to test a daily value of support near today’s low of $46.26. This price decline has been predicated on some OPEC members hinting that they may be unwilling to cut production going into a meeting in Vienna later this month. This news has left many Oil traders sidelined, as prices may be prepared to bounce higher or breakout lower at current levels."

Alternative,

• if the price is bounced from this level so the ranging bearish condition will be started, and
• if the price breaks 49.33 resistance level to above so local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition will be started.