Higher winning rate

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Hi, 

 I need help, does / have someone any idea how I could optimize my EA to gain a 90% or higher winning rate. My current winning rate with EURUSD is 59% and USDJPY is at 61%.

My setup at glance : TP: 20 , SL:40, Trailing SL:15,  Slippage: 2, as an opposite signal comes I exit my trade automatically. I use Alligator as my technical indicator, ea runs and trades also according to news.

Draw-down is at 30. 

Thanks in advance.

 Regards,

Philip 

 
Philip:

Hi, 

 I need help, does / have someone any idea how I could optimize my EA to gain a 90% or higher winning rate. My current winning rate with EURUSD is 59% and USDJPY is at 61%.

My setup at glance : TP: 20 , SL:40, Trailing SL:15,  Slippage: 2, as an opposite signal comes I exit my trade automatically. I use Alligator as my technical indicator, ea runs and trades also according to news.

Draw-down is at 30. 

Thanks in advance.

 Regards,

Philip 

Hi Philip

Just a suggestion, but why not try to look at it from another angle? Swap your TP & SL targets (ie TP 40, SL 20) so you get a 1:2 RR. Even if you only manage a 50% win rate, you'll still be rolling in the green.

Cheers
Stu
 
Philip:

Hi, 

 I need help, does / have someone any idea how I could optimize my EA to gain a 90% or higher winning rate. My current winning rate with EURUSD is 59% and USDJPY is at 61%.

My setup at glance : TP: 20 , SL:40, Trailing SL:15,  Slippage: 2, as an opposite signal comes I exit my trade automatically. I use Alligator as my technical indicator, ea runs and trades also according to news.

Draw-down is at 30. 

Thanks in advance.

 Regards,

Philip 

I know many people ask first for a winning rate but this is secondary, more important is expectancy. A winning rate can be easily high if stop loss is big but one loser will take out many winners. On the other hand if target is much bigger it may have a bad winning rate but one winner will be big and make the strategy positive.
Wish you many green pips!

best regards

Bernhard

 

Firstly, I agree that best is finding a SL/TP combination that works better. With TP: 20 , SL:40, you need at least 67% to stay flat.

I'd add more filters to the entries with another indicator.

-Try to alway enter with the trend of the longer timeframe.

-Try the EA on a higher timeframe.

- Alligator works well with an oscillator like CCI.

- Add spread and commission to your TP target.

- I don't understand why you have both trailing stop and TP.

 
Stuart Browne:
Hi Philip

Just a suggestion, but why not try to look at it from another angle? Swap your TP & SL targets (ie TP 40, SL 20) so you get a 1:2 RR. Even if you only manage a 50% win rate, you'll still be rolling in the green.

Cheers
Stu

Hi Stu, 

 Thanks for the advice. I tried it out and in my view it worked out very well. Profits are bigger then losses. After testing your suggestion out it dawned that why haven't I earlier thought of it :D. Actually I could put a challenge up on my real account and see would your suggestion beat the half kelly money management.

 
Bernhard Schweigert:

I know many people ask first for a winning rate but this is secondary, more important is expectancy. A winning rate can be easily high if stop loss is big but one loser will take out many winners. On the other hand if target is much bigger it may have a bad winning rate but one winner will be big and make the strategy positive.
Wish you many green pips!

best regards

Bernhard

Hi Bernhard, 

 I'm fully aware of it and that's why I wont use my strategy on AUDUSD since it almost whipped my account. There very to many "home runs" and hammers that nearly destroyed my account. I'm more in for consistency and that's why I reached out to this forum to find more clarity on how to make thing better. 

 
Fred Metraux:

Firstly, I agree that best is finding a SL/TP combination that works better. With TP: 20 , SL:40, you need at least 67% to stay flat.

I'd add more filters to the entries with another indicator.

-Try to alway enter with the trend of the longer timeframe.

-Try the EA on a higher timeframe.

- Alligator works well with an oscillator like CCI.

- Add spread and commission to your TP target.

- I don't understand why you have both trailing stop and TP.

Alright in that case I have messed up, since it's not always at 67%. Sometimes it is and sometime it isin't. So I guess I have to rethink my strategy since I want to achive consistency. 

 -Try to alway enter with the trend of the longer timeframe. = How long time frame is enough, I've used 1 Hr?

-Try the EA on a higher timeframe. = How high would you prefer?

- Alligator works well with an oscillator like CCI.= Amen to that

- Add spread and commission to your TP target. = Okay in that case I should change my TP to 22pips

- I don't understand why you have both trailing stop and TP.= It's for extra layer of protection. I also use slippage on top of it...my slippage is at 2 pips.

 
Try H1 (or H4) and open trades only in the direction of H4 (or D1) trend.
 
Fred Metraux:
Try H1 (or H4) and open trades only in the direction of H4 (or D1) trend.
Cool, I'll try that out. I've usually traded on the 1Hr time frame.
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