Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for NZD/USD - page 3

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.22 08:02

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and 59 pips range price movement

2016-09-21 21:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.

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"The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.0 percent."

"Global growth is below trend despite being supported by unprecedented levels of monetary stimulus. Significant surplus capacity remains across many economies and, along with low commodity prices, is suppressing global inflation. Volatility in global markets has increased in recent weeks, with government bond yields rising and equities coming off their highs. The prospects for global growth and commodity prices remain uncertain. Political uncertainty remains."

"Weak global conditions and low interest rates relative to New Zealand are placing upward pressure on the New Zealand dollar exchange rate. The trade-weighted exchange rate is higher than assumed in the August Statement. Although this may partly reflect improved export prices, the high exchange rate continues to place pressure on the export and import-competing sectors and, together with low global inflation, is causing negative inflation in the tradables sector. A decline in the exchange rate is needed."

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NZD/USD M5: 59 pips range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event



 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.26 08:51

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade and 16 pips price movement

2016-09-25 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -351M
  • forecast data is -730M
  • actual data is -1265M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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NZD/USD M5: 16 pips price movement by New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade news event