Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GBP/USD - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.23 08:07

GBPUSD: 1.4069 as the next bearish target (based on the article)


  • "The next market level that might stem the freefall is the 1.40…in part due to the psychological aspect of the figure but also because of the presence of a parallel (parallel to line that extends off of the 1992 and 2007 highs).” Cable bounced higher this week but price needs to establish above 1.4400 in order to suggest that even a short term low is in place."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.25 15:17

Danske Bank: buy EUR and sell GBP (based on the article)

  • Danske Bank recommends buying EUR, SEK and CHF while selling AUD, NZD and GBP based on their weights in portfolio/ Let's evaluate this forecast in a technical points of view.

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EURUSD.

H4 price is located below 200 period SMA (200 SMA) and below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition with secondary ranging within the following key reversal support resistance levels:

  • Fibo support level at 1.0777 located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary ebarish area of the chart, and
  • 61.8% Fibo resistance level at 1.0899 located near and above 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish area.


If the price will break Fibo support level at 1.0777 to below so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If the price will break 61.8% Fibo resistance level at 1.0899 to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary ebarish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

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GBPUSD.

H4 price is far below 200 period SMA (200 SMA) and below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition/ The price is ranging within the following key reversal support resistance levels:

  • 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.4221 located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area of the chart, and
  • Fibo resistance level at 1.4362 located near 100 SMA and below 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the ranging bearish trend.


There are 3 simple scenarios for the price movement for the week:

  • local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started in case the price breaks 1.4362 resistance level to above,
  • bearish trend will be continuing with 1.4079 target in case the price breaks 1.4221 support level to below,
  • or the ranging will be continuing within the levels.

 

GBP/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging bearish within key reversal levels

M5 price is located below SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and below SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition ranging within 1.4232 resistance level and 1.4199 support level. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the bearish trend to be continuing, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition in the near future.

  • If the price will break 1.4232 resistance level so we may see the bullish reversal to be started on this timeframe.
  • If price will break 1.4199 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.42321.4199
1.4241N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.4199 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4232 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.28 10:43

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: GBP Gross Domestic Product and 73 pips price movement

2016-01-28 09:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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  • "Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015 compared with growth of 0.4% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015.
  • Output increased in 2 of the main industrial groupings within the economy in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015. Services increased by 0.7% and agriculture increased by 0.6%. In contrast, production decreased by 0.2%, while construction output decreased by 0.1%.
  • GDP was 1.9% higher in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015 compared with the same quarter a year ago. GDP in 2015 as a whole increased by 2.2% on 2014. xxx In Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015, GDP was estimated to have been 6.6% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak of Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008. From the peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to the trough in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2009, the economy shrank by 6.1%.
  • The preliminary estimate of GDP is produced using the output approach to measuring GDP. At this stage, data content is less than half of the total required for the final output estimate. The estimate is subject to revision as more data become available, but these revisions are typically small between the preliminary and third estimates of GDP."

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GBPUSD M5: 73 pips price movement by GBP Gross Domestic Product news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.29 15:26

Intra-Day Fundamentals: Gross Domestic Product and 114 pips price movement for EUR/USD and GBP/USD

2016-01-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - Gross Domestic Product]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Gross Domestic Product] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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"Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent."

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EURUSD M5: 63 pips price movement by Gross Domestic Product news event :


GBPUSD M5: 51 pips price movement by Gross Domestic Product news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.30 09:03

Week Ahead by Crédit Agricole: NFP, RBA, FX Wars, GBP Squeeze, Sell AUD, NZD Rallies (based on the article)


  • "The calm maybe deceiving and the bulls maybe heading to a ‘China’ shop. Indeed, potential disappointments from the China PMIs could well halt the risk bounce in its tracks. Apart from the RBA, which may sound extra dovish just to keep AUD from bouncing further, there will not be many central bank speeches to sooth market nerves further."
  • "We remain constructive on USD against the background of raging global currency wars that should more than offset the negative impact of the recently more dovish Fed. Next week’s US data calendar could further boost policymakers’ confidence in the near-term outlook of the US economy and even inflation, and help USD."
  • "GBP looks oversold to us and more indications that PM Cameron and his EU colleagues are inching closer to a deal could help the currency consolidate. The BoE Inflation report should not trigger another bout of re-pricing of BoE rate hike prospects and, with so many negatives in the price by now, that could leave GBP as a prime candidate for a short squeeze."

  • AUD – 'Next week’s Chinese business activity data should prove the currency’s main driver. We expect rallies to remain a sell.'
  • GBP – 'We see limited scope of next week’s BoE announcement and inflation report pushing GBP lower.'
  • USD – 'Next week’s payrolls report should prove constructive enough in order to prevent rate expectations and the greenback from falling further.'
  • NZD – 'The policy outlook should keep the NZD a sell on rallies.'

 

GBPUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 31.01 - 07.02: ranging bearish to the secondary bear market rally

Daily price is on primary bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud with the ranging within 1.4406 resistance and 1.4079 support levels. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging trend to be continuing, and Trend Strength indicator is forecasting the local uptrend as the secondary bear market rally to be started.

If D1 price will break 1.4079 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 1.4731 resistance level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish market condition may be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.4731 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.4079 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bearish
Resistance
Support
1.44061.4172
1.4731
1.4079




SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish
 

GBPUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging on reversal to be inside Ichimoku cloud for the direction of the trend

H4 price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging waiting for the direction of the trend. Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for direction, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing in the near future.

Resistance
Support
1.43581.4149
1.4412N/A


If H4 price will break 1.4149 support level on close H4 bar so the bearish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging.
If H4 price will break 1.4412 resistance level so the price will be reversed to the bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.4412 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.4149 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging on reversal
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.01 10:41

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Manufacturing PMI and 18 pips price movement

2016-02-01 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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  • UK Manufacturing PMI at three-month high of 52.9 in January
  • Improved domestic demand supports expansion of output
  • Input cost deflationary pressure remains strong

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GBPUSD M5: 18 pips price movement by GBP - Manufacturing PMI news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.02 11:31

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Construction PMI and 44 pips range price movement

2016-02-02 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Construction PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Construction PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the construction industry.

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"January  data  pointed  to  a  renewed  slowdown  in output  growth  across  the  UK  construction  sector.  At 55.0,  down  from  57.8  in  December,  the headline seasonally  adjusted Markit/CIPS  UK  Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) remained well  above  the  50.0  no-change  value,  but signalled the  slowest  rate  of  expansion  since   April  2015. Moreover,   aside   from   the   pre-election   slowdown recorded last year, the latest reading was the lowest since  June  2013.  A  number of  survey  respondents noted that softer new business growth had  acted as a brake on output growth and staff hiring at the start of 2016."

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GBPDUSD M5: 44 pips range price movement by UK Construction PMI news event :



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