Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 3

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EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - intra-day bearish breakdown

M5 price is located below SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and below SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for the bearish breakdown with the crossing Fibo support level at 1.0851 to below for the bearish trend to be continuing, RSI indicator is estimating the bearish market condition in the near future for this timeframe.

  • If the price will break 1.0875 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0851 support on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.08751.0851
N/A
N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0851 support level on close M5 bar for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.0875 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : breakdown
 
This period seems to be one of the best to operate, some coins showing good trends ....
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.13 14:58

Intra-Day Fundamentals - China CGAC Trade Balance and 67 pips price movement for majors

2016-01-13 02:00 GMT | [CNY - CGAC Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CGAC Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month. Export demand/currency demand are directly linked with each other: foreigners buy the domestic currency to pay for the exports.

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EURUSD M5: 14 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :


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GBPUSD M5: 11 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :


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USDJPY M5: 31 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :


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USDCHF M5: 11 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :



 
EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, January: ranging for direction

D1 price is on bearish ranging condition located inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for direction:
  • The price is ranging within Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B to be located inside Ichimoku cloud.
  • Tenkan-sen line crossed Kijun-sen line of Ichimoku indicator for the possible bullish market condition to be started in the near future.
  • Chinkou Span line is crossing the price to above for the bullish condition.
  • Nearest support levels are 1.0710 and 1.0522.
  • Nearest resistance level is 1.1059.


If the price will break 1.0710 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing with 1.0522 target to re-enter.
If the price will break 1.1059 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
  • Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 1.1059 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch price to break 1.0710 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
ResistanceSupport
1.1059
1.0710
N/A
1.0522
SUMMARY : ranging
TREND : waiting for direction
 

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging near 100 SMA/200 SMA area for direction of the trend

M30 price is located near and above SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for th bullish ranging market codition waiting for the direction for the possible breakout or breakdown. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be continuing, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish condition to be in the near future for example.

  • If the price will break 1.0942 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing withiout secondary ranging.
  • If price will break 1.0834 support so the price will be fully reversed to the primary bearish market condition.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.08891.0854
1.0942
1.0834


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0834 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.0942 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bullish

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction
 

The FED is reducing his BASE at the same pace the SP500 is falling,


It seem the sp500 is correlated with the base with a delay in time, see the link.


Does anyone have information about base, and a correlation with the sp500 ?


   see here base and sp500 


Both USD and EUR are falling at the same pace, not for the same reason, EUR because of the Europeen QE, USD for some unkown reason,

FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed
FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed
  • fred.stlouisfed.org
Units: The S&P 500 is regarded as a gauge of the large cap U.S. equities market. The index includes 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy, which are publicly held on either the NYSE or NASDAQ, and covers 75% of U.S. equities. Since this is a price index and not a total return index, the S&P 500 index here does...
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.15 15:10

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Core Retail Sales and 64 pips price movement

2016-01-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

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EURUSD M5: 64 pips price movement by USD - Core Retail Sales news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.16 09:22

What we’re watching (based on the article)


  • USD - "Evidence of accelerating core inflation could help the USD but mainly against risk-correlated and commodity currencies."
  • EUR - "ECB President Draghi may consider a more dovish rhetoric as part of next week’s press conference. This should keep the EUR a sell."
  • GBP - "Next week’s labour and retail sales data should confirm constructive domestic conditions to the benefit of rate expectations, and the currency."
  • CAD - "Even if the BoC were to refrain from easing monetary policy further as soon as next week, they should consider a dovish rhetoric. This should prove sufficient in keeping the CAD a sell on rallies."
  • NZD - "Any better than expected inflation data is likely to prove an opportunity to sell the NZD anew."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.16 09:37

Forex Weekly Outlook January 18-22 (based on the article)

The fall in Chinese stock markets and the yuan devaluation intertwined with the crash in oil prices and currencies certainly felt it. AUD, CAD and GBP reached new multi-year lows against the dollar while the latter fell against the safe haven euro and yen. US data was not convincing and the chances of another rate hike coming in March have fallen. Yen and euro crosses have made big moves.
  1. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 9:30. The UK’s inflation rate turned positive for the first time in four months, rising 0.1% in November. The main increase occurred in transport costs, alcohol and tobacco prices while clothing prices declined. Analysts expected CPI to remain flat after declining 0.1% in October. Falling oil prices continued to reduce manufacturer’s costs, keeping prices intact while core inflation, excluding food and energy increased to 1.2%. Another 0.1% rise is expected this time.
  2. Chinese GDP: Tuesday, 2:00. The world’s second largest economy has been the center of attention with the recent weak data, fall in stocks and devaluation of the yuan that expose weakness and an inability to transition from manufacturing and investment to  services and consumption. After serving as the engine of growth for the world, especially after the financial crisis, China could be a reason for another crash. GDP is expected to show an annualized growth rate of 6.9% in Q4, exactly like in Q3. And while many doubt the official data, the publication still has an impact. A positive number can boost risk, supporting AUD and also other commodity currencies and the pound, while hurting the euro and yen. All this could be limited. And in case of a weak figure, it’s the other way around. China also publishes industrial output at the same time, and this is expected to stand at 6% y/y after 6.2% beforehand. Fixed Asset Investment carries expectations of 10.2% y/y.
  3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. Economic Sentiment according to the ZEW report edged up 5.7 points in December reaching 16.1 points. The reading was higher than the estimate of 15.2 points. The current condition index posted 55 rising 0.6% points from the 0.8% fall in November. Although  economic sentiment improved in December, it’s still lower than the long-term average of 24.8 points. However, a recent uptick in export orders may provide a breather to the German economy. Economic Sentiment is expected to decline to 8.2 in January.
  4. NZ Inflation data: Tuesday, 21:45 New Zealand’s inflation was slightly higher than forecasted in the third quarter, rising 0.3% following a 0.4% increase in the June quarter. The main rise occurred in housing prices increasing 1.2%. Analysts expected the third quarter CPI to reach 0.2%. Inflation is predicted to decline by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2015.
  5. UK Employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. The number of people claiming unemployment allowance increased more than expected in November, rising 3,900, while the previous month’s claimant count change was revised down to only 200 people. However, despite the rise, the UK jobless rate declined to 5.2% in the three months to October, down from 5.3%. Wage growth continues to weaken with regular pay slowing to a rise of 2% in the three months to October, down from a revised 2.4% a month before. Total pay, including bonus payments, decelerated to 2.4% from 3%. The number of jobless claims is expected to rise by 4,100 this time.
  6. US Building Permits: Wednesday, 13:30. Building permits surged 11% in November, reaching 1.29 million-unit rate, the highest level since June. The number of permits is a good indicator for housing starts, indicating the housing market is on a growth trend. Permits for the construction of single-family homes increased 1.1%, the highest level since December 2007. Multi-family building permits soared 26.9%. US building permits is expected to reach 1.2 million in December.
  7. US Inflation data: Wednesday, 13:30. The weakness in gasoline prices kept CPI flat in November while underlying inflation pressures increased with a 0.2% rise in core Consumer Prices. Core CPI increased for the third month in November. In the 12 months through November, the core CPI edged up 2.0%, the largest gain since May 2014, after rising 1.9% in October. The continuous rise in rents, airline fares, automobiles and medical care indicate rising inflationary pressures. The headline inflation is expected to remain flat again as core inflation is forecasted to rise 0.2% in December.
  8. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 15:00. The Bank of Canada kept its key rate at 0.50% in line with market forecast amid the effects of low oil prices and other pressures. Total inflation remains near the bottom of its one- to three-per-cent target range, due to low energy prices. Furthermore, business investment continues to be weighed down by spending cuts at resource companies. The central bank remains concerned about consumer debt levels. BOC Governor Poloz stated that even as the Fed hikes, Canadian rates would stay steady. The Bank of Canada  is expected to cut rates from 0.50% to 0.25% this time.
  9. Eurozone Rate decision: Thursday, 12:45, press conference at 13:30. In the previous meeting of the ECB, expectations were sky high for more monetary stimulus, and the results fell a bit short. A cut of the deposit rate to -0.30% and an announcement of extending QE to March 2017 + reinvesting proceeds were not enough. EUR/USD shot higher and Draghi made his best effort at damage control. No change is expected this time, but we could get a hint about what the Bank could do in March, when new staff forecasts are published. Draghi and some of colleagues are open to do more, while the hawks, most notably his German colleagues, say they have done more than enough. A promise to do more, as inflation looks weak, could hit the euro, while a relaxed stance, given the improvement in the euro-zone, could lift the common currency.
  10. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 13:30. Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area plunged to -5.9 in December, its third negative reading in four months. This unexpected decline followed a 1.9 points reading in the previous month. Analysts expected the index to show 2.1 points. The new orders section remained negative and fell 6 points, to -9.5. However, companies reported higher shipments, as the current shipments index increased 6 points to a reading of 3.7. Furthermore, the 6-month outlook plunged more than 20 points to 23.0. Overall, the report suggests weak global demand. Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area is expected to reach -3.1 in January.
  11. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of new jobless claims increased unexpectedly last week, but remained below the 300,000 line. Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 284,000 worse than the 275,000 forecasted by analysts. However, the rise could be attributed to seasonal volatility rather than a change in labor market conditions. The four-week moving average of claims, rose 3,000 to 278,750 last week and the four-week moving average of continuing claims increased 5,250 to 2.22 million. Jobless claims is expected to reach 281,000 this week.

 

Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for EUR/USD

H4 price is bullish market condition for the ranging near and above Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the birtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.0984 resistance located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.0804 support level located near and below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish area.

Chinkou Span line is located near the price to be ready for breakout or breakdown, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition in the near future.

Resistance
Support
1.09841.0804
N/A
1.0707


If H4 price will break 1.0804 support level on close H4 bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If H4 price will break 1.0984 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.0984 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.0804 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : waiting to break the levels

TREND : ranging
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