Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 9
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.16 14:44
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New York Manufacturing Index and 13 pips price movement
2016-02-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - Empire Manufacturing]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Empire Manufacturing] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York state.
==========
"The February 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity continued to decline for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index edged up three points, but remained firmly in negative territory at -16.6. The new orders and shipments indexes indicated an ongoing decline in both orders and shipments. Price indexes suggested a slight increase in input prices and a small drop in selling prices. Employment levels steadied, while the average workweek index pointed to a decrease in hours worked. The six-month outlook remained weak, with the index for future general business conditions up only slightly from last month’s multi-year low."
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EURUSD M5: 13 pips price movement by Empire State Manufacturing Index news event :
EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging for direction
H4 price is on ranging market condition located inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for direction.
If H4 price will break 1.1086 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing without secondary ranging.
If H4 price will break 1.1247 resistance level so we may see the reversal to the primary bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : ranging
TREND : waiting for direction of the trendForum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.17 14:43
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: US Producer Price Index and 14 pips price movement
2016-02-17 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core PPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Core PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy.
==========
"The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.1 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices decreased 0.2 percent in December and advanced 0.4 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index declined 0.2 percent for the 12 months ended in January."
"The increase in the final demand index for January can be traced to a 0.5-percent advance in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods moved down 0.7 percent."
"In January, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 0.2 percent for the second consecutive month. For the 12 months ended in January, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services climbed 0.8 percent."
==========
EURUSD M5: 14 pips price movement by Producer Price Index news event :
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.17 20:39
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Meeting Minutes and 37 pips range price movement
2016-02-17 19:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]
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EURUSD M5: 37 pips range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news event :
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.18 06:58
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: China CPI and 13 pips price movement
2016-02-18 01:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
==========
"In January of 2016, the consumer price index (CPI) went up by 1.8 percent year-on-year. Producer Price Index (PPI) for manufactured goods decreased 5.3 percent year-on-year, and decreased 0.5 percent month-on-month."
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EURUSD M5: 13 pips price movement by China CPI news event :
If H4 price will break 1.1086 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing without secondary ranging.
If H4 price will break 1.1247 resistance level so we may see the reversal to the primary bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Bearish.
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.19 09:29
Trading News Events: U.S. Consumer Price Index (based on the article)
A marked pickup in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may heighten the appeal of the dollar and spark a further decline in EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement higher borrowing-costs in 2016.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Signs of stronger price growth may encourage the Fed to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment,’ while Chair Janet remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon.
Nevertheless, waning confidence paired with the slowdown in private-sector activity may drag on price growth, and a dismal development may produce near-term headwinds for the greenback as market participants push out bets for the next Fed rate-hike.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: CPI Climbs to 1.3% or Higher, Core Inflation Remains Sticky
- Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
- If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bullish USD Trade: Inflation Report Fails to Meet Market Expectations- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEURUSD Daily
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.19 14:42
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Consumer Price Index and 21 pips price movement
2016-02-19 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
==========
"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
An increase in the index for all items less food and energy offset a decline in the energy index to lead to the seasonally adjusted all items index being unchanged. The energy index fell 2.8 percent as all of its major component indexes declined. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in January. The increase was broad-based, with most of the major components rising, but increases in the indexes for shelter and medical care were the largest contributors."
==========
EURUSD M5: 21 pips price movement by Consumer Price Index news event :
EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 21.02 - 28.02: daily bullish ranging bullish near key support for the correction to be started
Daily price is on bullish market condition located above Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is ranging within 1.1376 resistance and 1.1070 support levels with Absolute Strength indicator estimating the possible secondary correction to be started.
If D1 price will break 1.1070 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction will be started.
If D1 price will break 1.0707 support level on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
If D1 price will break 1.1376 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : bullish
TREND : rangingForecast for Tomorrow - levels for EUR/USD
EUR/USD: ranging within key primary levels for trend following direction. This pair for intra-day price is located above 200 period SMA and near 100 period SMA on the border between the primary bullish and ranging bullish market condition. The price is ranging within key reversal support/resistance levels, and descending triangle pattern was formed to be crossed for the possiuble intra-day bearish trend to be started.