Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 8

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.11 16:15

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Fed Chair Yellen Speech and 20 pips price movement

2016-02-11 15:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]

[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech] = on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC.

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EURUSD M5: 20 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.12 08:32

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German GDP and 11 pips price movement


2016-02-12 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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  • "The German economy continued its moderate growth at the end of 2015. In the fourth quarter of 2015, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.3% on the previous quarter after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. The economic situation in Germany in 2015 was characterised by solid and steady growth (+0.3% in the third and fourth quarter each and +0.4% in each of the first two quarters). The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that this results in a +1.7% average increase (calendar-adjusted: +1.4%) for the whole year of 2015. The provisional result released in January has largely been confirmed."
  • "In a year-on-year comparison, economic growth accelerated since summer when measured by the unadjusted figures. The price-adjusted GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 rose by +2.1%, following increases of +1.7% in the third quarter of 2015 and of +1.6% in the second quarter of 2015. However, in the last quarter of 2015 there were two working days more than a year earlier, which produced an above-average calendar effect." Consequently, the calendar-adjusted increase (+1.3%) was slightly smaller than in the third (+1.7%) and second quarter (+1.6%).
  • "The statistical carry-over effect at the end of 2015 is +0.4%. This is the rate of GDP change which would be obtained for 2016 if the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP remained at the level of the fourth quarter of 2015 for all quarters of 2016."

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EURUSD M5: 11 pips price movement by German GDP news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.12 11:59

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Euro-Zone GDP and 17 pips price movement


2016-02-12 10:00 GMT | [EUR - Euro-Zone GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Euro-Zone GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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"Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.3% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 during the fourth quarter of 2015, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the third quarter of 2015, GDP grew by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively."

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EURUSD M5: 17 pips price movement by Euro-Zone GDP news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.12 14:43

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Advance Retail Sales and 35 pips price movement

2016-02-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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EURUSD M5: 35 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event :



 

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 14.02 - 21.02: daily ranging bullish near 1.1376 resistance

Daily price was on bullish breakout by breaking 1.1246 level: the price was bounced from 1.1376 with the secondary ranging condition and with ascending triangle pattern to be formed for the bullish trend to be continuing.

The price is started to be ranging within the following key support/resistance lines:

  • 1.1086 key support level located on the border between the secondary ranging and the secondary correction trend,
  • 1.1376 key resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area, and
  • 1.0881 key support level located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the daily chart.

Chinkou Span line is above the price for the ranging bullish condition, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging trend to be continuing.

If D1 price will break 1.1086 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction will be started.
If D1 price will break 1.0881 support level on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
If D1 price will break 1.1376 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1376 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1086 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish rally to the bullish reversal
Resistance
Support
1.13761.1086
N/A
1.0881



SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.14 18:11

Weekly Outlook for EUR/USD by Morgan Stanley (based on the article)


EUR/USD: Secondary correction to be started within the primary bullish market condition.

"Should the tactical rally we foresee occur, it would put pressure on EURUSD once again. This would likely ease Eurozone inflation expectations slightly but probably won’t prevent noise about potential ECB action in March. Remember, the correlation between EURUSD and equity markets remains strong and we expect the correlation to continue while there are outstanding FX hedged equity positions in the markets."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.15 08:19

Technical Intra-day Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD. Bullish. Take partial profit at 1.1376.


"The current rally is showing signs of slowing and a short-term top appears to be imminent. However, confirmation is only upon a break below the stoploss at 1.1180. A break below this level could lead to a pullback towards the 1.1085 support. Those who are long should continue to book some partial profit at 1.1376."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.15 15:21

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speech and 17 pips price movement

2016-02-15 14:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech] = Hearing at the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee Introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Brussels, 15 February 2016.

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"In order to make the euro area more resilient, contributions from all policy areas are needed. The ECB is ready to do its part. As we announced at the end of our last monetary policy meeting in January, the Governing Council will review and possibly reconsider the monetary policy stance in early March. The focus of our deliberations will be twofold. First, we will examine the strength of the pass-through of low imported inflation to domestic wage and price formation and to inflation expectations. This will depend on the size and the persistence of the fall in oil and commodity prices and the incidence of second-round effects on domestic wages and prices. Second, in the light of the recent financial turmoil, we will analyse the state of transmission of our monetary impulses by the financial system and in particular by banks. If either of these two factors entail downward risks to price stability, we will not hesitate to act."

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EURUSD M5: 17 pips price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.16 08:09

Technical Intra-day Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)


EUR/USD. Correction.



"The current down-move from the high is likely part of a corrective pull-back which could extend lower to 1.1060. The major support is nearer to 1.0990 and a move below this level is not expected for now. Overall, this pair is expected to remain under pressure in the coming days unless it can reclaim the 1.1375 peak."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.16 12:09

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German ZEW Economic Sentiment and 15 pips price movement

2016-02-16 10:00 GMT | [EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts.

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"The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany has declined for the second consecutive time in February 2016. The index has decreased by 9.2 points compared to the previous month, now standing at 1.0 points (long-term average: 24.6 points)."

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EURUSD M5: 15 pips price movement by German ZEW Economic Sentiment news event :



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