Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 2

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EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - Ranging Bearish

H4 price is on primary bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud with the secondary ranging within 1.0710 support and 1.0836 resistance.

  • Chinkou Span line is below the price indicating the ranging bearish trend to be continuing.
  • Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish on the chart) located far below the price and above 1.0836 resistance level which makes the bullish reversal to be unlikely in the bear future.
  • The nearest support level for H4 price is 1.0710.
  • The nearest resistance levels for H4 price are 1.0772 and 1.0836.
Resistance
Support
1.07721.0710
1.0836N/A


If H4 price will break 1.0710 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If H4 price will break 1.0836 resistance level so we may see the local uptrend and the secondary market rally with the good possibility to the bullish reversal.
If H4 price will break 1.0992 resistance level so the intra-day price will be reversed from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.0836 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch close H4 price to break 1.0710 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging
 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.07 09:45

Trading News Events: EUR - Retail Sales (based on the article)

What’s Expected


Why Is This Event Important

After further reducing the deposited-rate and adjusting its quantitative-easing program in December, the Governing Council may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach in the first-half of the year as the non-standard measures continue to work their way through the real economy. Positive developments coming out of the monetary union may encourage the ECB to adopt an improved outlook for the region but, central bank President Mario Draghi may keep the door open to implement additional monetary support in order to achieve the mandate for price stability.

However, waning confidence accompanied the slowdown in private-lending may drag on retail sales, and a dismal development may encourage the ECB to further insulate the region as President Draghi largely retains a dovish outlook for monetary policy.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish EUR Trade: Euro-Zone Retail Sales Climbs 0.2% or Greater

  • Need green, five-minute candle following a positive growth report to consider a long EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish Euro trade, buy EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.
Bearish EUR Trade: Private-Sector Spending Continues to Disappoint
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same strategy as the bullish euro trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily


  • EUR/USD remains at risk of giving back theadvance following the ECB’s December meeting amid the deviating paths for monetary policy but, the pair may consolidate going into the end of the week as market participants gauge the trajectory for U.S. interest rates.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1052 (November high) to 1.1090 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

 

EURUSD, M15: 35 range pips price movement by EUR - Retail Sales news event:


 

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Something Interesting

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.08 09:03

zigzag_nk_fibo indicator and zigzag_nk_fibofan indicator

Those are two famous indicators for MT5 for Fibo levels, Fibo fans, static Fibo, dynamic Fibo, and some more.

zigzag_nk_fibo indicator:

zigzag_nk_fibofan indicator:

I know that many traders are using MT4 only to trade but I am suggesting to use Metatrader 5 as well (I am using MT5 for technical analysis for example).

How to use in Tech Analysis

As we see from the chart below (EUR/USD, D1) - the price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA for the primary bearish market condition for the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • Fibo resistance level at 1.1059 located near 100 SMA/200 SMA area in the beginning of the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition, and
  • Fibo support level at 1.0710 located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area of the chart.

If the price will break Fibo support level at 1.0710 so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1.1059 from below to above so the bullish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close daily price to break 1.1059 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch daily price to break 1.0710 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

Resistance
Support
1.09921.0710
1.10591.0522

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.08 11:41

Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change (based on the article)

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

Despite the cautious tone laid out in the Fed Minutes, a further improvement in labor market conditions may encourage the committee to adopt a more hawkish tone at the January 27 interest rate decision as Chair Janet Yellen remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation goal over the policy horizon.

However, the slowdown in business outputs along with the persistent weakness in private-sector consumption may drag on job growth, and a dismal NFP print may prompt the FOMC to endorse a wait-and-see approach in an effort to mitigate the downside risk for growth and inflation.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFP Climb Another 200K or Greater, Wage Growth Picks Up

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: U.S Employment Report Disappoints
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily



  • Long-term outlook for EUR/USD remains tilted to the downside amid the deviating paths for monetary policy but, failure to preserve the bearish setup carried over from the previous month may highlight a larger correction in the exchange rate.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1052 (November high) to 1.1090 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

November 2015 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
EURUSD M5: 60 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news event:



 

EURUSD M5: 57 pips price movement by USD - U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change news event:


 

This is interesting movement going on for now: the price was on downtrend breakdown during the NFP for 57 pips, after that the price was bouced from 1.0802 support level back to the local uptrend with 76 pips price movement.


 

And on the more deep look we can see the following:


- the price was stopped by 1.0802 key support level to start the local uptrend as the bear market rally up to 200 period SMA (blue line on the chart) which is the virtual border between the bearish and bullish trend on the chart.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.09 14:05

Week Ahead: what we’re watching - the Fed is on the verge of changing its outlook (based on the article)


  • USD: "threats to the divergence trade? - Risk aversion can still challenge the Fed’s outlook. Solid US retail sales needed next week to limit any risk aversion-driven USD underperformance against JPY, EUR and CHF."
  • GBP: "enough pounding? - Improving UK data and the largely unchanged BoE outlook could offset Brexit fears to a degree and support GBP."
  • AUD: "remain cautious - AUD latest underperformance could continue next week in view of Australian and Chinese data releases."
  • NOK & SEK: "ahead of CPI - CPI data out of Sweden and Norway may matter less in the face of low oil prices and Riksbank’s FX intervention threat."
  • XAU: "Gold shines - Gold has been the best performing asset in our universe since the start of 2016 as risk aversion burnished its safe haven appeal."

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.10 12:05

Danske Bank: Caught In 1.05-1.10 Range; What's Next? (based on the article)


  • "EUR/USD is in our view caught in the 1.05-1.10 range, but later on we expect a rebound on no renewed policy divergence and strong EUR fundamentals."

D1 price is on ranging market condition located inside Ichimoku cloud for waiting for the direction:

  • Tenkan-sen line is located above Kijun-sen line of Ichimoku indicator which is indicating the primary bullish market condition.
  • Chinkou Span line is above the price indicating the ranging bullish market condition in the near future.
  • Ddescending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for good possible breakdown with the reversal.
  • Nearest support levels are 1.0710 and 1.0522.
  • Nearest resistance level is 1.1059.
If daily price will break 1.0710 support level on close bar so we may see the bearish market condition up to 1.0522 as the next bearish target.

If daily price will break 1.1059 resistance level so the price will be on the beginning of the primary bullish market condition without secondary ranging.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 1.1059 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0710 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
1.10591.0710
N/A
1.0522

SUMMARY : ranging
TREND : waiting to break the levels


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