EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 07.06 - 14.06: correction within the bullish trend with possible reversal to the bearish with 1.0818 support level - page 2
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.10 06:47
Forex technical analysis: EURUSD moves back toward unchanged on the day (based on forexlive article)
"The EURUSD has moved back toward unchanged on the day at 1.1290. The corrective high just peaked the the 1.1288 level. The area was near the swing high on June 3. On Unemployment Friday, early sellers came in against the level. Today, in the Asian and London morning session, the pair had some peaks near the level."
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.10 14:56
Can anything break the impenetrable barrier in EURUSD? (based on forexlive article)
There's a rather large obstacle to the upside in EURUSD and it's becoming a very tough nut to crackThe area between 1.1380 and 1.1400 is proving to be a very strong level. The level has played a big part in the moves all year and not even a 200 pip fall in USDJPY could help the euro crack it
While the 1.1380 level is strong I would be cautious about trading it if we moved back up there quite quickly. If you do look to trade it then perhaps think about a tight stop somewhere just above 1.1400. If it does break then watch for a re-test to hold as a sign to look at a long there
Closer to the current price, the minor trendline was broken briefly but we're back below, and we could see resistance coming in against it again. That's at 1.1355 and the area around 1.1330/40 is closer resistance right now. We're also seeing resistance form at 1.1310
The euro is starting to turn into the dollar whereby the shift in sentiment is making the downside a tougher trade. With that in mind, and the current views on the yen and dollar, I'm going to be looking for any decent dips towards 1.11 to think about loading up some longs. I'm also going to think about playing a long if 1.1380 breaks and holds
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.11 04:52
EUR/USD orders (based on forexlive article)
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.11 10:32
Trading the News: USD Retail Sales (based on dailyfx article)
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Signs of a stronger recovery may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adopt a more hawkish tone at the June 17 interest rate decision, and expectations for higher borrowing-costs may spur a resumption of the long-term bullish USD trend as the central bank moves away from its easing cycle.
Nevertheless, retail sales may continue to disappoint amid easing discounts paired with waning consumer confidence, and another weaker-than-expected report may drag on the dollar as it raises the for a further delay in the Fed’s normalization cycle.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Retail Sales Rebounds 1.2% or Greater
- Need red, five-minute candle following a positive print to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
- If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: Household Spending Continues to Disappoint- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEURUSD Daily
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2015.06.11
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
EURUSD M5: 87 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.12 07:01
Morgan Stanley Chart Of The Week: EUR/USD Key Triggers (based on efxnews article)
On the long-term EUR/USD Chart
"Despite the corrective rebound developed since early March, EURUSD remains within a long term down trend, which accelerated from June of last year. Indeed, this move lower over the past year forms part of a C wave decline within a broad multi year corrective structure which has developed since the 1.6038 peak of 2008. The pace of decline over the past year is typical for a C wave. This suggests upside potential is limited for EURUSD," MS notes.
On the 2-Year EURUSD Chart
"The sub-structure of the decline from June of last year has been “impulsive”, with a 3 rd wave within the C wave now developing. The subsequent recovery since March has developed a clear 3-wave corrective structure, which now looks to have been completed at the 1.1467 mid-May peak (4th wave top within wave (3). This implies the next stage of the EURUSD decline (5th wave within wave (3)) is now likely to unfold," MS projects.
On the 90-Day EURUSD Chart
"This bearish interpretation will be confirmed by a move below 1.1005, suggesting the next impulse decline is set to take EURUSD below the 1.0854 level and back to the 1.0458 March low. This even implies a move to new lows with potential for a decline below parity over the medium term. Near-term risk to this scenario is a move above 1.1467, which would suggest another corrective leg higher before the downtrend resumes." MS argues.
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.12 10:02
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SAB) - Intraday Outlooks for EURUSD, EURJPY and EURGBP (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: With yesterday’s downside correction out of the way there’s a big question mark over what the next step from here will be. However as long as the hourly pattern with lower highs remains in place (i.e. staying below 1.1278) we will hold a light downside bias.
EUR/JPY: With a relatively high probability we’re now in for a third attempt to break below the 138.44 support. The key question will of course be whether the break will be sustained or not. A sustained break lower will increase the probability that we prematurely have ended the C-wave (theoretical target = 143.96) and hence the entire correction from the April low.
EUR/GBP: With the latest development, the break and close below 0.7267, we can with a lot higher confidence call for wave C to now have been put in place. More losses are expected near term with focus at the ideal point for wave D, 0.7127.
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.12 15:45
EURUSD trades in mid range in a Friday wander (based on forexlive article)
The EURUSD followed mainly below the 100 hour moving average and Asia-Pacific trading. In the European session, the pair tried to hold support at the 200 hour MA - like yesterday - but gave way and extended the narrow trading range (at the time). The pair is not back above and below the 200 hour MA at 1.1222 .The topside trend line and 100 hour MA loom ahead as a level to target at 1.1255 and 1.1267 respectively. The pair is stuck near mid range. Near the 200 hour MA. Below the 100 above. The 38.2% is below at 1.1168. We are kinda in a place of neutrality.
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.13 08:38
BNP Paribas - Here Is Why The EUR Will Re-Emerge As A Funding Currency Soon (based on efxnews article)
"The rise in eurozone bond yields has caused the EUR’s status as a funding currency to fade in recent weeks and the JPY to overtake as the favoured currency for the market to sell, especially as a funder for long USD positions. This switch in focus has caused EURJPY to rise 10% over the past two months, reaching its highest level since January earlier this week.
The EUR should re-emerge as the main funding currency.
i. The rise in the EUR in recent weeks has corresponded to the rise in eurozone bond yields. Our interest rate strategy team highlight that the rise in eurozone yields is likely to be nearing an end.
Firstly, German bond yields are now much closer to model gauges of ‘fair value’ following the bond sell-off.
Second, the net supply picture is better for European bonds as we move into the summer months and expect better performance ahead (Chart 1). We expect a decline in yields over the months ahead to encourage EUR-funded carry trades to be re-established.
ii. Our Positioning Analysis indicates that short EUR positioning is at light levels with a score of -10 (out of -50), having reached -4 last week (its lightest level since the start of the year). As such, there appears to be substantial scope for short EUR positions to be restored