How many states to define a trend?
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Forex Market Conditions, a graphic depiction
moneyline, 2008.11.09 07:18
Hi, since there's been questions about the varied Forex market conditions, here's a chart
that compares them.
moneyline
And some more about primary/secondary trend:
or just summarized on this post -
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5
Sergey Golubev, 2013.01.22 14:18
So, just to summarize few pages on this topic onto 1 comment:
1. Trend following
1.1. Primary trend
- Uptrend (bullish)
- Downtrend (bearish)
1.2. Secondary trend.
- Correction
- Bear Market Rally
2. Overbough/oversold ('top-and-bottom')
3. Breakout
There are some more: flat (or non-trading market condition), and ranging market condition. Some people say that flat and ranging are part of secondary trend together with correction and bear market rally; the other people are talking about flat and ranging as separated market condition which can be under item #4 (flat) and item #5 (ranging). I think, the true may be the following: flat and ranging are the part of secondary trend under trend following. If yes so the resultant classification may be the following:
1. Trend following
1.1. Primary trend
- Uptrend (bullish)
- Downtrend (bearish)
1.2. Secondary trend.
- Correction
- Bear Market Rally
- Flat (non-trading)
- Ranging
2. Overbough/oversold ('top-and-bottom')
3. Breakout
- 2012.12.31
- Sergey Golubev
- www.mql5.com
There's no denying it—don't believe everything you stumble upon on Google. Instead, consider enrolling in an institute of your choice to truly grasp how markets operate. The professional realm stands distinctly apart from the retail sphere, a division that has existed indefinitely. For markets to function, not everyone can emerge victorious; hence, someone, somewhere initiates narratives to garner support—be it through selling expert advisors, signals, or indicators.
The challenge lies in the widespread reliance on YouTube and other social media platforms, despite the well-known fact that 95% of traders lose money daily. The odds of finding a genuinely profitable mentor amid this are close to nil. Can't they see the improbability?" Nope!!! they just carry on believing everything they hear. Why?
Because YouTube and other social personalities flaunt cars, money, and fabricated accounts. They instruct followers to buy when one line crosses another, spout selling strategies... But in reality, none of these gurus are profitable traders; their profits come from peddling ineffective products to trusting customers. There is no such thing as you described here. It only exists in the mind of a retail trader, and believe me, there are millions.
despite the well-known fact that 95% of traders lose money daily
Good morning
If 95% of them are to lose, it may be because 95% are looking for the same solutions with the same points of view.
If 95% don't look at the trend definition, that might be a good sign
I stay in my lane
I think the definitions are not good
I remove my 5 statements, the range
It has nothing to do with the tightening, for example, of the Bollinger bands.
Good morning
If 95% of them are to lose, it may be because 95% are looking for the same solutions with the same points of view.
If 95% don't look at the trend definition, that might be a good sign
I stay in my lane
That's my point. You are doing what the rest are doing, searching for things that aren't there, or looking for things that are made up. It's good practice staying in your own lane, but without noticing it, you are falling into the latter. Here is an example: You quoted"
"
The question was quite simple
How many phases have you defined for your trading?
I have 5
Range
Start of trend
Full trend
Weakening
Counter trend
?? Which institution told you this? Who lied to you?
All that you mentioned above are part of a standard practice in Market analysis/price formation we call Accumulation or distribution phases aka Price mark-up's and mark down's. Within those phases we have contracted price, and expanded price which will cause the markets to act differently. The Market makers control how the players operate, they set the pace, and traders fall into their spells every time because of this what you said. Cause and effect plays a major role in Fx Trading. You need to understand that different phases have a different outcome and is never traded the same.
Let me explain further.....
Range: Ranging markets (as the retail trader would call it) aka Consolidated prices are only valid when price hits a 2% range over a period of 24hrs +, other than that, its might look like you see a ranging market, but in actual fact, its a start of a new market cycle. Here we will be looking for any expansions above 5% to confirm the change aka institutional levels. We would then be able to confirm with the 1st master candle in that markup/markdown that the cycle has started. ITS NOT A RANGING MARKET....it indicates a loss of momentum and volatility. The absence of opportunity. WITHOUT VOLATILITY WE HAVE NO RISK AND OPPORTUNITY. In the presence of liquidity, risk and opportunity is crushed, it only gives a small window to get out of positions you got stuck in.
The 2% consolidation allows you to draw a box, and calculate the next Supply or Demand level at the next POT with extreme accuracy. This is method allows you to see what most major banks see, Opportunity.
Start of trend: No such thing. Its called Start of phase () and within that phase, a lot of things happen every hour. We would look at price momentum/volume rate of percentage to confirm the change to avoid false breakouts
Full trend: ??? Whatever term this is, i don't know. I'm sure you are referring to price mark up? Advanced prices? Who taught you this? Who lied to you?
Weakening: This term is never used in the professional world. I am sure you meant to say "absence of volatility/momentum/volume/consolidation/runout/ "End of tail" etc. This means that very few traders have the control here, and the market maker (Major banks, Institutes, hedge funds etc) now have the 'upper hand' and will direct the market participants in a possible new direction (which most of them don't even notice, as they don't know what to look for)
Counter trend: This forms part of every aspect mentioned up here, Which is a Market phase......there is no counter trend, they are phases. ACCUMULATION AND DISTRIBUTION. You cant be looking for every little change you see in a trend and just give it a name. Phases run for days, weeks, months. And within those phases, a lot of things happen. Its still a market phase, don't give it names, but rather know what percentage of price changes are necessary to identify those changes in a particular range.
So yes, stick to your lane, you are doing really well it seems.
My advice: Get to any institute of your choice and learn how markets function, and how to identify and trade them correctly
You WILL NOT get answers on google and other social platforms. These things are taught only from professionals/mentors. Everything i have mentioned here is not even a drop in the bucket.
Good morning
not false, not true
I don't really look for a solution in others, and especially not in the loudest ones.
We each have our own schools, our thoughts, our choices. You have to deal with it
Your answer keeps me going, that's all that matters
Good morning
not false, not true
I don't really look for a solution in others, and especially not in the loudest ones.
We each have our own schools, our thoughts, our choices. You have to deal with it
Your answer keeps me going, that's all that matters
Well, then i cant help you mate. Best of luck
Good morning
I'm handing over my post, obviously there have been some problems
The question was quite simple
How many phases have you defined for your trading?
I have 5
Range
Start of trend
Full trend
Weakening
Counter trend
You need to simplify things in trade.
There are price level in which buyers response -this we call as support.
There are price level in which sellers respond - this we call as resistance.
Principles of price action theory is clear. You can study them as there are many building blocks of support and resistance.
Now,
The trend is not a single state as you also addresses somehow it is a progress.
Trends form with the interaction of price level with the support and resistance points.
If buyers taking the control of resistance levels, then trend may start to form.
Also note, trending phase of price is not more than 10% of the whole price action.
90% of the price action is the sideways move.
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I'm handing over my post, obviously there have been some problems
The question was quite simple
How many phases have you defined for your trading?
I have 5
Range
Start of trend
Full trend
Weakening
Counter trend