I was traying to make an EA for triangular arbitrage ... and end up with this one 20 Sharpe Ratio - page 2
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I don't know about sports betting ... but I suppose the problem is the same (spread) ... this really works with zero spreads account ... and in sports, I suppose the difference between the total sum of the odds is the commission of sport bookies (as the spread in brokers).
If adapted the strategy for the article so you can use this also with/without spreads ...
I don't know about sports betting ... but I suppose the problem is the same (spread) ... this really works with zero spreads account ... and in sports, I suppose the difference between the total sum of the odds is the commission of sport bookies (as the spread in brokers).
In sports betting the profit seems to be based on differences in betting odds between different bookmakers. I think you hedge two football teams against each other and the difference is your profit but it has been a long time ago and I did not understand it fully back then. People on YouTube can explain it better. So as you can imagine I didn't understand how it works with spread exactly. And people got banned from betting platforms for it.
ah yes! now I remember ... yes ... that's arbitrage in sports ... .and ... its prohibited by bookies ... they ban your account and all bookies share data and info to prevent that of happening ....
but ... you can still do that with delay ... suppose you bet at 1.5 odds that Real Madrid wins the champions final 90' game, and they score a goal, then Borussia's odds pass from 5 to for example lets say 10
if 100/5 is 60%, and 100/1.5 is 20% , the bookies commission is 20%
if you bet 1 € to R. Madrid you will receive 0.5 € if you won.
if you had betted 0.12 € to Borussia, you would have won 0.5 € , but you have to win the commission, so now, when R. Madrid scores, you can bet 0.06 at 10 odds to win 0.5
well its something like that ... I suppose you have to bet a bit more to beat what you have betted ... but yes ... you can still do arbitrage in sports.
I suppose you should do the same with Borussia winning and the draw ... but yes ... you can still do it with delay ... but you have to calculate every thing before.
ah yes! now I remember ... yes ... that's arbitrage in sports ... .and ... its prohibited by bookies ... they ban your account and all bookies share data and info to prevent that of happening ....
but ... you can still do that with delay ... suppose you bet at 1.5 odds that Real Madrid wins the champions final 90' game, and they score a goal, then Borussia's odds pass from 5 to for example lets say 10
if 100/5 is 60%, and 100/1.5 is 20% , the bookies commission is 20%
if you bet 1 € to R. Madrid you will receive 0.5 € if you won.
if you had betted 0.12 € to Borussia, you would have won 0.5 € , but you have to win the commission, so now, when R. Madrid scores, you can bet 0.06 at 10 odds to win 0.5
well its something like that ... I suppose you have to bet a bit more to beat what you have betted ... but yes ... you can still do arbitrage in sports.
I suppose you should do the same with Borussia winning and the draw ... but yes ... you can still do it with delay ... but you have to calculate every thing before.
Not really like that ... yes ... I think its the same formula as trading ... if % of wina A + win B + win C < 100 then its arbitrage opportunity because all over 100 is the bookie commission ...
this is > 100%, but
you can still win? ...
Not really like that ... yes ... I think its the same formula as trading ... if % of wina A + win B + win C < 100 then its arbitrage opportunity because all over 100 is the bookie commission ...
this is > 100%, but
you can still win? ...
its impossible to win consistently a bookie ... the equation is a line, and the best solution to not loose money is to not bet ... and arbitrage in sports is prohibited by them (it cant be illegal, but they will close your account).
and with arbitrage in trading ... I have never heard that its prohibited.
but ... even though ... if you want to bet ... in that example you need at least some odds of 1.78 on R. Madrid to make a profitable move ... that means ... that or Borussia scores first and Madrid doesn't score ... or they stay in draw 0-0 till minute 40' ....
and the other way around ... if you bet for Madrid to win ... you would need that the draw and for Borussia would be something around 4.54 , 6,8 ... that means ... Madrid scores and keep advantage ... bet for draw in the first mins and bet for Borussia when losing ....
I don't think its possible to mix this two solutions ... so really the best fit is to buy a pizza and watch the game ...
or bet to Madrid and draw when start ... and wait to Madrid score or draw in the min 66' to bet for Borussia ...
there are plenty combos .. but if Borussia scores at the beginning and keep with the advantage you will have lost two bets ... this is why ... I think its better to not bet on sports.
Not really like that ... yes ... I think its the same formula as trading ... if % of wina A + win B + win C < 100 then its arbitrage opportunity because all over 100 is the bookie commission ...
this is > 100%, but
you can still win? ...
This is exactly what it didn't understand and it hasn't changed. The guy who said this was quite used to thinking in terms of bet odds and profits/losses. For him it seemed to be totally obvious. But if ut translates into trading for you I will be interested in that article.
its not the same ... because ... I use a requirement, of % difference ... and only does trade if that requirement is filled ...
betting is different... you just can't beat it.
edited: its also totally different because predictions are used.
21.93 sharpe ratio over 2600 trades
1min TF over a whole month trading Asia session only