EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 12.04 - 19.04: Bearish Breakdown with 1.0461 Next Key Support Level - page 2

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newdigital, 2015.04.14 17:24

EUR/USD falls to lowest level in three weeks (based on dailyfx article)

  • EUR/USD broke below the 78.6% retracement of the late-March range yesterday
  • While below 1.0830 our near-term trend bias is lower in the euro
  • The 127% extension of the 2005-2008 adavance around 1.0440 looks to be the next major pivot for the rate
  • A minor turn window is eyed around the end of the week
  • Interim resistance is seen around 1.0685, but only a move through 1.0830 would turn us positive on the single currency


EUR/USD Strategy: Square

Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
EUR/USD 1.0440 1.0520 1.0565 1.0585 1.0685

 
H4 and D1 - downtrend.
  • H4 is on market rally started within the primary bearish
  • D1 is market rally started on open D1 bar, and we will see the reversal to uptrend if price will cross 1.1034 resistance on close D1 bar
  • H1 reversed from bearish to bullish (uptrend)
 
Matija14:
Big move...what are your predictions for EURUSD now? Still in down trend? If watching at H1,H4 and Daily chart?

Why bearish (downtrend) for EURUSD D1 timeframe? Well ... do you see Sinkou Span A line?

  • So, if the price is below this line - bearish/downtrend,
  • if above this line - bullish/uptrend

This is primary trend. It means that we may see the secondary trend within this primary. Secondary trend is market rally (local uptrend during the primary bearish), and correction (local downtrend during the primary bullish), flat, ranging etc


 

As we see from the image above we are having the following (for D1 timeframe):

  • primary bearish (general downtrend) - price is below Sinkou Span A line
  • nearest support is 1.0520 (we see it from the image above)
  • nearest resistance levels are 1.0954 and 1.1038
  • Chinkou Span line is very near to be cross the price deom below to above (we see it from the image above). If this line will cross the price on close bar (D1 close bar in our case) so it will be breakout of the price movement.

Thus, we may have the following scenarios:

- If D1 price will break 1.0520 support level so the primary bearish breakdown will be continuing up to the new low forming
- If D1 price will break 1.0954 and especially 1.1034 resistance level together with Chinkou Span crossing the price from below to above so we may see good breakout with the reversal of the price from primary bearish to the primary bullish with secondary ranging (it will be ranging because the price will be inside Ichimoku cloud in this case)
- If not so the price will be moved between 1.0520 support and 1.0954 resistance

Please note that those support/resistance levels are dynamic ones (it means that we may see the other levels next days as a next high or next low for example).

 

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newdigital, 2015.04.15 09:10

Trading The ECB: Possible EUR/USD Reactions (based on efxnews article)

  • Starting with the ECB rate decision, TD's base case is that rates will be left unchanged with no significant EUR/USD reaction.
  • Moving to the open statement, TD's base case (80% chance) is that there will be little to change here and EUR/USD will likely be capped by 1.0715 (minor short-term fibo and double top neckline trigger).
  • If the ECB upgrades growth risks to "almost balanced" (5% chance), TD sees EUR/USD likely breaking above 1.0715 and moves to around 1.08.
  • On the other hand, if the ECB language downplays most improvements as far too early to suggest anything (15% chance), TD sees EUR/USD drifting lower but likely unable to break the 13 April low of 1.0521.
  • Finally, on the ECB Q&E, TD's base case is that Draghi will stick to a cautiously optimistic tone, continuing to reinforce the mantra that the ECB assumes full implementation and will not run out of bonds to buy and has seen nothing in market liquidity to suggest an issue, providing no real answer on questions regarding Greece. Under this scenario, TD sees EUR/USD likely grinding slightly lower, but unable to break the 13 April low of 1.0521.

 

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newdigital, 2015.04.15 13:35

Dovish ECB to Fuel Bearish EUR/USD Outlook- 1.0500 in Focus (based on dailyfx article)

Trading the News: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision

The fresh batch of rhetoric coming out of the European Central Bank (ECB) may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the EUR/USD should President Mario Draghi endorse a dovish outlook for monetary policy


However, we may see growing speculation for a ‘taper tantrum’ in the euro-area should Mr. Draghi adopt a more upbeat tone for the region and talk down expectations for more non-standard measures as the recent developments coming out of the monetary union beat market forecasts.

Nevertheless, we may get more of the same from the ECB amid the series of positive data prints coming out of the euro-area, and the single-currency may face a more meaningful correction over the near-term should the central bank implement a more hawkish twist to the forward-guidance for monetary policy.


Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Stays on Course & Talks Down ‘Taper Tantrum’

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the policy announcement to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bearish Euro trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bullish EUR Trade: Governing Council Adopts Improved Outlook

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in the opposite direction.

 

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newdigital, 2015.04.15 17:13

EURUSD ECB Support and Resistance Update (based on dailyfx article)

  • EURUSD opens in a range despite News
  • Range resistance it’s at 1.0702
  • A break below S4 support has bearish implications



The EURUSD has opened the day moving towards support in early London trading. However, despite the ECB holding its banking rate announcement today, the pair has yet to breakout. Currently price is found near range support at the S3 Camarilla pivot near 1.0606. In the event that price remains supported, traders will begin to look for a bounce in price towards levels of resistance, including the R3 pivot found today at a price of 1.0702.



Despite price opening inside of a 96 pip range, statements from the ECB still have the ability to progress price to a breakout point. A EURUSD decline below the S4 pivot at 1.0557 would suggest a return to USD strength and raise the possibility of the creation of future lower lows. Conversely, if price moves back through its trading range, and breaches the R4 pivot at 1.0751, this would open the market for a potentially broader bullish move.


 

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newdigital, 2015.04.16 06:28

EUR/USD: Temp Bounce; Parity Call Still Intact For Q3 (based on efxnews article)

President Draghi continued to distance himself from verbally jawboning the EUR, continued to rule out another rate cut, continued to say the ECB is rule-based when asked how long they can support Greece, said he saw no signs of a bond bubble, and continued to avoid saying anything to suggest tapering is a concept they have even thought about at this stage, notes TD.

"So overall, the ECB continues to be optimistic on the impact of its measures and likes the improvement it is seeing in the data and lending surveys, but not enough to significantly shift their overall message. There was no mention of a review to broaden the assets eligible for SSA purchases, but this may still follow in the non-policy meeting later this month," TD adds.


"Overall, this provided minor support to both fixed income (no bubble means buy bonds) and EURUSD (uncertain passthrough of weaker currency to inflation means maybe weaker EURUSD doesn’t help), TD argues.

"Nothing here changes our view that bunds should continue to trade in a range capped at around 30bps for the next 3-6 months and EURUSD should trade below parity by 2015Q3," TD projects. 


 

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newdigital, 2015.04.16 06:42

AUDIO - Traveling The World with Brandon Wendell

The Road Warrior, Brandon Wendell joins Merlin for a look at his recent classes, travels, and more importantly. Trading! Merlin and Brandon answer several questions that relating to the Euro and specific trade setups on the Euro, Swiss Franc, and US Dollar. Brandon also talks about his All Asset Class Mastery XLT as well.



 

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newdigital, 2015.04.16 18:06

EURUSD Attempts Post News Breakout (based on dailyfx article)

  • EURUSD opens in a 73 pip range
  • Range resistance sits at 1.0720
  • A decline exposes support at 1.0647


The EURUSD has opened the trading day range bound, with the pair moving between its R3 and S3 Camarilla pivot points. Price has traversed this 73 pip range twice thus far, with price currently trading above its R3 pivot which is found today at 1.0720. Despite being range bound for most of the session, traders should continue to watch the R4 pivot found at 1.0755. Price has already attempted to break this value once this morning on worse than expected initial jobless claims data. A breakout above this value would suggest the potential for higher highs for the EURUSD.

In the event that price trades back below its R3 pivot, it opens the possibility of another move back towards values of support. Currently range support sits at a price of 1.0647 at the S3 pivot. A continued decline below the S4 pivot at a price of 1.0611 would suggest a larger reversal on the creation of a lower low.


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