ACTIONS news, forecasts, expectations 2022 - page 40
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Yura, it's just overheating. Look at the Barrett gauge. It's a nightmare.
As the 2008 crisis was explained: Don't give an unsecured mortgage to an unemployed one-legged negro.
Oh, yeah!
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I agree everything is off the charts - I admit it could go downhill.
Actually, you can watch the RTS on a monthly basis.
The SP500 on the months is not as bad as the RTS, but it has a nice bearish spike
Buffett's indicator warns of possible market crash
Investing.com - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett's preferred market indicator, which compares stock market valuations to the size of the US economy, was 205%, indicating a huge overvaluation of stocks and serving as a warning signal of a future stock market crash, Business Insider writes.
Buffett's market indicator uses the total market capitalisation of all publicly traded US stocks divided by the country's latest quarterly GDP figure, serving as a proxy for the stock market's valuation relative to the size of the entire US economy.
The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed at around $46.69 trillion on Wednesday, as theS&P 500 andNasdaq 100 indices ended the day at record highs. Meanwhile, the latest US GDP estimate for the second quarter was $22.72 trillion, matching Buffett's 205%. This is well above his 187% figure from the second quarter of 2020, when the pandemic was in full swing and the country's GDP was about 15% lower.
Buffett himself called his eponymous indicator in a Fortune magazine article in 2001 "probably the best and only gauge of market valuation at any time".
It has accurately predicted imminent economic downside on more than one occasion, rising to a record high during the dot-com bubble and sharply higher in the run-up to the global financial crisis, but then remaining below 150% in both cases.
But there is a big "but": The indicator compares US GDP from the previous quarter with the value of the stock market today, and GDP does not include the earnings of US corporations abroad, while the market capitalisation of US firms reflects the value of both their domestic and international operations. Moreover, the pandemic has disrupted economic activity in the country and lowered GDP since last spring, pushing the federal government to support companies and citizens, thereby stimulating the stock market as well. So the Buffett indicator may be artificially high and will start to decline as the economy recovers and the government bailout ends.
Besides Buffett, there are other investors who have also started sounding the alarm: Michael Bury, who has already warned this year that the stock market is "dancing on a knife edge," and Jeremy Grantham, who spoke of a "full-blown epic bubble" that he hopes will burst spectacularly.
- Business Insider contributed to this story
The "cessation of state aid" will stop the inflow of money and the market will begin to subside under its own weight. The most nervous ones will start to exit and the PIC will kick in. It is always present in the market, providing "trendiness". And, accordingly, auto fluctuations.
What is PIC ?
Positive feedback.
Ihmo:
RTS only BUY on bounces
all BUY only on bounces
We'll see tomorrow morning in the early hours. Could slip through....
USDRUB breaks through 75 like a Turkish sabre slices a Chinese papyrus, ace rips the warmers with a quieter crackle , broke through with a gap.
Waiting for 74 , the level is not over the hill already visible.
Dollar is already around 74.5
Rouble forecast 70-80 - fundamentals are pushing towards the lower boundary
1) Russian market expects CBR rate hike benchmark 50-100
2) ECB may raise interest rates in 2022 - Head of Bundesbank
FRANKFURT-ON-MINE (Reuters) - The European Central Bank may raise interest rates this year as inflation is likely to remain high for longer than expected, German central bank chief Joachim Nagel told Die Zeit on Wednesday.
"If the (inflation) picture does not change by March, I will advocate a normalisation of monetarypolicy," said Nagel, who took over the Bundesbank in January. - The first step would be to stop net bond purchases during 2022. Then interest rates could rise this year."
ECB chief Christine Lagarde also said last week that inflation in the eurozone would stay elevated for longer than the regulator expected. Any decision on whether and when to raise rates will depend on the data, she said.
(Balazs Koranyi. Translated by Elizaveta Zhuravleva. Editor Marina Bobrova)
SP500 with gap up
Tinkov's TERMINAL is getting better every day - today they added a section (insider trades)
which can significantly influence your decision on this or that security.
it really feels like it is the only one in the banking sector, and with promotion.