Trend vs Flat - page 34

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AlfaGroup:
1. Как у тренда, так и у флета проблема одна: как только выполнены все условия, определяющие тренд или флет - в большинстве случаев тренд и флет ломаются.

2. Therefore it is not possible to trade both trend and flat in the same strategy. If you choose one or the other, then under certain conditions (additional filters) the probability increases that there will be more profitable entries than unprofitable ones.

1) If YOUR trend detector has a big lag, then yes, it will be unstable...

2) Who prevents you from switching from trend to flat and vice versa, it's not as difficult as it seems... as long as the lag of trend detection is not big...

 
Serqey Nikitin:

1. if your trend-finder has a big lag, then yes, it will be unstable...

2) Who prevents you from switching from trend to flat and vice versa? It's not as difficult as it seems... as long as the lag in trend detection is not great...

If trend or flat detection does not detect them confidently, we will face another problem - false signals. This brings even more losses, especially if you consider a long test.
So: only reliable trend or flat and either trend only or flat only strategy. All hybrid (trend+fleet), as you say, "switches" fail because of the large number of false signals.
I prefer to take one trend per week. For example, there were 4 trends in March: from 2031 to 9565 points each. Total: 16122 points with 0.01 lot depo for each $15 of the account. As the percentage value, it is 161.22/15*100=1074% per month. But it was less: in February I made only 1226 points within four trends, one of which was negative (there was nowhere without a stop). But still, it is 82% a month.
 
AlfaGroup:
If the trend or flat detector does not identify them confidently, we will face another problem - false signals. This brings even more losses, especially if a long test is considered.
Therefore: only reliable trend or flat and either trend only or flat only strategy. All hybrid (trend+fleet), as you say, "switches" fail precisely because of the large number of false signals.
I prefer to take one trend per week. For example, there were 4 trends in March: from 2031 to 9565 points each. Total: 16122 points with 0.01 lot depo for each $15 of the account. As the percentage value, it is 161.22/15*100=1074% per month. But it was less: in February I made only 1226 points within four trends, one of which was negative (there was nowhere without a stop). But still it is 82% per month.

And how much potentially available profit was not gained during this period on used pairs and trends that emerged!

 
AlfaGroup:
If the trend or flat detector doesn't detect them confidently, there will be another problem - false signals. This brings even more losses, especially when considering a long test.
Therefore: only reliable trend or flat and either trend only or flat strategy. All hybrid (trend+fleet), as you say, "switches" fail precisely because of the large number of false signals.
I prefer to take one trend per week. For example, there were 4 trends in March: from 2031 to 9565 points each. Total: 16122 points with 0.01 lot depo for each $15 of the account. As the percentage value, it is 161.22/15*100=1074% per month. But it was less: only 1226 points within four trends in February, one of which was negative (I have nowhere without a stop). But still it is 82% per month.

Where does this SOMETHING come from...?

You must be the LORD-God and know everything?... You do not allow for the possibility that you are very wrong...? And there is so much you just don't know...?

 
aleger:

There is not only the proverbial "50/50 chance" in the market, but also the constant presence of already created and regularly emerging new trends! We should not forget that it is trends of various kinds that are the main source of income for "small" traders.

Trends which do not depend on each other for an observer in any way

...

Which we all are

 
AlfaGroup:
Both trend and flat have the same problem: as soon as all the conditions defining trend or flat are met - in most cases trend and flat break down. That's why you can't trade a trend and a flat in one strategy. If you choose one or the other, then under certain conditions (additional filters) the probability that there will be more profitable entries than unprofitable ones increases.

You are absolutely right only if the trend component prevails over the flat.

 
CHINGIZ MUSTAFAEV:

trends independent of each other for the observer


It's not a big deal. In terms of processing, they have a lot in common. You just need to classify them clearly and work them out in a timely and correct manner

 
Serqey Nikitin:

Where does this SOMETHING come from...?

You must be the LORD-God and you know everything?... You do not allow for the possibility that you are very wrong...? and there is so much you don't know...?

Where is the conceit? These are the bare facts. A test of the trading system from November. Doesn't take into account the little things: spread, commission and swap. Pound is the currency pair. There is only one indicator. 11.19: 242%, 12.19: 116%, 01.20: 169%, February and March said.
I would like to point out that oil and "coronavirus" volatility in March, and January (like July) is more often a flat month (holidays) for the majors. But my trend system also works on a flat: 169% in Jan. And it works on trend, of course.
 
aleger:

It's no big deal. In terms of processing, they have a lot in common. All you have to do is to classify them clearly and work them out in a timely and correct manner.

Apparently there is nothing to worry about...just not for you.

 
CHINGIZ MUSTAFAEV:

You are absolutely right only if the trend component prevails over the flat.

No one has yet been able to determine over a long period of time whether trend or flat will "prevail" in the future. I'm telling you: trade either trend or flat.
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