How to increase your account by a factor of 1,000. - page 2

 
Nikolai Semko:

You have a 5.63% chance of increasing your deposit by a factor of 100 if your trading performance is such that the average probability of doubling your deposit without total loss is 75%.

Tell me what is the probability of accidentally getting this result of 28 times your account in 4 months. Just one wrote to me that it happened so by chance. And if it is not difficult, how to use this table
 
MrBobr1:
Tell me what are the odds of accidentally getting this result of 28 times the score in 4 months. It's just that one wrote to me that it was an accident. And if it's not difficult, how to use this table
MrBobr1:
Thanks for the table, I've already understood myself that it's unlikely I will be able to keep it up for a year and not fall off at all. A year is not 4 months. And a mistake can be made at any time. Next time I reduce risks several times. The final result will not be much affected. It will be more comfortable and safer to trade. The margin of pre-drainage movement will increase from 20-30 pips to 50-70 pips.

In fact, everything is possible. The thing is that your performance is a variable and depends on how your trading style (strategy) correlates to the market at the moment.
If your style is martingale, i.e. you prefer limit orders, believing that price always returns, and you hit a flat market, which can last a very long time (just as a trend market can last a very long time), then your performance increases dramatically.
As I've said many times before, it all comes down to determining when a trend or a flat starts or ends. I managed to increase my deposit more than 1000 times on the real more than 3 times exactly, when I correctly estimated the moments of the end of a flat and trend several times in a row (2-4), and then just a balanced disciplined trade.

 
Nikolai Semko:

I managed to increase my deposit more than 1000 times on the real more than 3 times exactly, when several times in a row (2-4) I correctly assessed the moments of the end of the flat and the trend, and then just a balanced disciplined trade.

What period of time, if it's not a secret, did you manage to do it? And how did you discipline yourself, because one mistake is enough, even a small one. And what is the randomness of getting such a result? And mine, too.

 
MrBobr1:

Over what period, if it is not a secret, did you manage to do it? And how did you discipline yourself, because one mistake, even a small one, is enough for such risks. And what is the randomness of getting such a result? And mine, too.

1-3 months. My probability was about 7%. As the drain/run to 1,000 times ratio was about 15:1

 
Nikolai Semko:
1-3 months. My probability was around 7%. As the drain/increase to 1000x ratio was about 15:1

My system works great too, I don't always follow it. I get frustrated. Tell me, what is my probability of increasing my score by 1000 times with the results I have shown

 
MrBobr1:

My system works great too, I don't always follow it. I get frustrated. Tell me, what is my probability of increasing my score by 1000 times with the results I have shown

You need to see your failure stats for that, and on the real if you are trading manually.
 
Nikolai Semko:
для этого нужно видеть вашу статистику неудач, причем на реале, если у вас ручная торговля.

So I have a failure, just one. It immediately leads to failure. Both on the first try and on the second. And I try to close unprofitable trades immediately at such risks. Imagine I have opened a deal with 300-500% risk of deposit, spread has immediately reduced my deposit by 10%. The course went just 10-15 points against the deal and already I have a drawdown of 50% of the initial deposit. As for the statistics, I posted the report in my first post.

 
MrBobr1:

So I have a failure, just one. It immediately leads to failure. Both on the first try and on the second. And I try to close unprofitable trades immediately at such risks. Imagine I have opened a deal with 300-500% risk of deposit, spread has immediately reduced my deposit by 10%. The course went just 10-15 points against the deal and already I have a drawdown of 50% of the initial deposit. As for the statistics, I posted the report in my first post.

This is a very small statistic. It is certainly not enough for evaluation.
 
Nikolai Semko:
This is a very small statistic. It's certainly not enough to make an assessment.

Thank you

 
MrBobr1:
Tell me what is the probability of accidentally getting this result of 28 times the score in 4 months.

1/28

i.e. once for 28 times. it's usually like this: 27 accounts drained, 1 time 28-multiplied up.