Geometric approach in price forecasting - page 5
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Good day, I can't explain it to you ... :) I have tried to think about it as you have, but all thoughts will be dragged down by "ears" ... I have noticed a pattern in the method and shared it ... As I understand it, you are convinced of its work but can't understand why it works - believe me, I can't either ... :) But it does work, yes not always, but statistically in quite a higher percentage of yes's than no's.
In this thread Martin CHEguevara said:"Your charting system is based on the propertyof price to form a flat in a natural way by reducing the intensity of crossing the maximum/minimum or as in your case increasing the time to cross extrema."
... ask him a question ... :)
Here's another suggestion from one of the adepts of my method:"Why do gann angles work? Because it's the angular coefficient of a derived function.The price graph is the graph of a derived function."
That's all I know ...
Regards, RomFil
Ok, thank you. I will share my opinion. In 1. I'm inclined to conclude that it works, but not quite, in the sense that this square is rather meaningless, i.e. you can take an arbitrary range of coefficients and some of them will work, yes, it's a guessing game :)
At one time when I just started to write in MQL for trend analysis I came up with a system that is based on Gann, only later I found out more about Gann, interesting yes. Everything brilliant is simple and lies on the surface, you just have to take it.
In your construction the Gann lines are TF-mo dependent, when you change TF they show a different layout, although the movement in pips and everything else has not changed. We should - pardon the pun - scalify the scale. Also the layout will change if we take 4 and 5 signs for one and the same instrument for example. Elliott Waves will lead to about the same result in target definition.
My advice - do not bother to think that there is some sense in that algorithm, which you cited, rather you have also rediscovered the Elliot waves as I discovered Gann's system :)
Since you're going to think anyway, another great hack - on your example for gold line X8 - repeats the first spike, because roughly 30 * 8 = 240, this equals 975 divided by 4, ie number of bars in the first spike. It is easier then to dance from it, i.e., this line will be the speed of 1, the rest will be with a slowdown of 2, 4 ... times.
OK guys, no need for a neuron, I just didn't think of it myself
OK, thank you. I'll share my opinion. In 1. I'm inclined to conclude that it works, but not quite, in the sense that this square is rather meaningless, i.e. you can take an arbitrary range of coefficients and some of them will work, yes, it's a guessing game :)
At one time when I just started to write in MQL for trend analysis I came up with a system that is based on Gann, only later I found out more about Gann, interesting yes. Everything brilliant is simple and lies on the surface, you just have to take it.
In your construction the Gann lines are TF-mo dependent, when you change TF they show a different layout, although the movement in pips and everything else has not changed. We should - pardon the pun - scalify the scale. Also the layout will change if we take 4 and 5 signs for one and the same instrument for example. Elliott Waves will lead to about the same result in target definition.
My advice - do not bother to think that there is some sense in that algorithm, which you cited, rather you have also rediscovered the Elliot waves as I discovered Gann's system :)
Since you're going to think anyway, another great hack - on your example for gold line X8 - repeats the first spike, because roughly 30 * 8 = 240, this equals 975 divided by 4, ie number of bars in the first spike. It is easier then to dance from it, i.e. this line will be speed 1, the others will be 2, 4 ... times slower.
Good day!
I repeat - I'm not claiming the uniqueness of my proposed method... I'm just pointing out a certain pattern, including how to count the first impulse (since there are several approaches to determine it), how to convert this impulse to scale, etc. I'm not looking for "understanding the meaning - why it works", but just using what is and how it is ... :)
I won't "think" further - I'm at the stage of automating the method and don't intend to move away from its original algorithm just yet.
Shared in the public found the pattern just for fun, so to speak free of charge. I did not ask to finalize or solve anything ... :)
Although I have a question, but it is not related to this topic (I'll ask it here, then maybe move into a separate thread) - actually a question:
I'm pretty good at neural network programming "kunfu", including the use of neural networks to predict the further price movement. I use Matlab for this purpose, it's clear that the farther is the better, but the price is not standing still and is moving, therefore the conjuncture changes and the forecast is changing. So now a question - what is the optimum forecast horizon in your opinion? 1 bar (candlestick), 2, 3, 5, 10, etc.
Regards, RomFil
Good afternoon!
So now a question - what in your opinion is the best forecast horizon? 1 bar (candle), 2, 3, 5, 10, etc.
Regards, RomFil
The optimum one is a daily candlestick, and higher. If we're talking about predictions, I try to do it very well with vicles, you can forecast a day candle, but H4 candle is practically impossible, I've tried so many times, I can't do it any lower...
Of course one bar (candlestick).
Good afternoon!
I repeat - I do not claim to be unique in my proposed method ... I'm only pointing out a certain pattern, including how to count the first pulse (as there are several approaches to determine it), how to translate this pulse into scale, etc. I'm not looking for "understanding the meaning - why it works", but just using what is and how it is ... :)
I won't "think" further - I'm at the stage of automating the method and don't intend to move away from its original algorithm just yet.
Shared in the public found the pattern just for fun, so to speak free of charge. I didn't ask to finalize or solve anything ... :)
Although I have a question, but it is not related to this topic (I'll ask it here, then maybe move into a separate thread) - actually a question:
I'm pretty good at neural network programming "kunfu", including the use of neural networks to predict the further price movement. I use Matlab for this purpose, it's clear that the farther is the better, but the price is not standing still and is moving, therefore the conjuncture changes and the forecast is changing. So now a question - what is the optimum forecast horizon in your opinion? 1 bar (candlestick), 2, 3, 5, 10, etc.
Regards, RomFil
You say it is how it is, but you say it may be so and may be so and it doesn't show exactly how. It's not any different from guessing and guided trading and it has nothing to do with geometry if you don't understand why it's a square. Have you ever read the how-to, though? Then you would understand that the square is an accident, not a pattern. Well I do not convince you of anything, you shared your opinion, I shared an opinion :) about the prediction - because the farther away the lower its probability, if there are statistics for this distribution, the methods of game theory in each case to calculate which is more profitable to use.
Good afternoon!
"What kind of people are you ..." - I don't remember who said ... :)
A square because... Why do you want it? If you're stuck to your own (your "how-to") and you don't want to think about it, re-read books or articles about trading, because I think a long time has passed since you read your latest favorites ...
I'll tell you a story about me and what's new in the old one - several years ago I had a Subaric in my old age - fast though - and I drove it under the 60 speed limit at 125 km/hour - and it was a misdemeanor. The "officers" offered to settle the issue on the spot, but I refused and was sent to a hearing. Two girls with the rank of captain handled my case, thank God they fined me, but after they sentenced me I asked them a question about the rules of the road... It didn't matter what the question was, but the answer was a bit shocking - "... we'll read the rules together...". I said I knew them, and you all the more so - to which I got the answer: "... I've been working here for years and every time I find something new ...". We opened the usual rules (not the thick book of explanations they show in driving school) but a simple thin one and started reading - as a result the rules were read with the emphasis of the answer to my question - and I was amazed at that! Since then, reading the same book, article or other and reviewing, or searching for an answer to the question raised - I can actually find it in most cases.
And now my advice to you - read very carefully about price and time quadrature - maybe then you will be able to understand.
Now about the manner of your question - maybe you just do not understand anything in general in the proposed methods? So ask a question, I'll try to answer it in an "understandable language". Frankly speaking, I did not understand the point of your post, dearAleksey Mavrin ... What did you want to tell me?
I am using the methods I suggested in real trading. Right now I'm using a bet to settle my account from 1000 P. up to ... I use the offered methods including determination of targets and possible reversal points. The direction and volume of trades I open using another system but following the targets obtained with the methods. However, I've got some flat day today, which is why I almost had the whole cutlet in position, but my initial deposit has been already moved out and if Kolya comes, I will start from the beginning ... In the previous two days I made 150% to the deposit... It's not much, but the risks are small, except for today ... :)
Regards, RomFil
Good afternoon!
"What kind of people are you ..." - I don't remember who said ... :)
A square because... Why do you want it? If you're stuck to your own (your "how-to") and you don't want to think about it, re-read books or articles about trading, because I think a long time has passed since you read your latest favorites ...
I'll tell you a story about me and what's new in the old one - several years ago I had a Subaric in my old age - fast though - and I drove it under the 60 speed limit at 125 km/hour - and it was a misdemeanor. The "officers" offered to settle the issue on the spot, but I refused and was sent to a hearing. Two girls with the rank of captain handled my case, thank God they fined me, but after they sentenced me I asked them a question about the rules of the road... It didn't matter what the question was, but the answer was a bit shocking - "... we'll read the rules together...". I said I knew them, and you all the more so - to which I got the answer: "... I've been working here for years and every time I find something new ...". We opened the usual rules (not the thick book of explanations they show in driving school) but a simple thin one and started reading - as a result the rules were read with the emphasis of the answer to my question - and I was amazed at that! Since then, reading the same book, article or other and reviewing, or searching for an answer to the question raised - I can actually find it in most cases.
And now my advice to you - read very carefully about price and time quadrature - maybe then you will be able to understand.
Now about the manner of your question - maybe you just do not understand anything in general in the proposed methods? So ask a question, I'll try to answer it in an "understandable language". Frankly speaking, I did not understand the point of your post, dearAleksey Mavrin ... What did you want to tell me?
I am using the methods I suggested in real trading. Right now I'm using a bet to increase my account from 1000 P. up to ... I use the offered methods including determination of targets and possible reversal points. The direction and volume of trades I open using another system but following the targets obtained with the methods. However, I've got some flat day today, which is why I almost had the whole cutlet in position, but my initial deposit has been already moved out and if Kolya comes, I will start from the beginning ... In the previous two days I made 150% to the deposit... It's not much, but the risks are small, except for today ... :)
Regards, RomFil
That's a lot of letters. You have no geometry, the title of the topic does not fit. You don't know what you are doing, do you? Why write so much? What's your point? Nothing. Pardon my abruptness, but "unselfishly conveying" something that does not make sense and that you yourself do not understand - it is stupid.
Well, that's your right to think so. Whoever needs to know will understand.
If you have no questions, I suggest we call it a day. Good luck.
Respectfully, RomFil.
Well, that's your right to think so. Whoever needs to know will understand.
If you have no questions, I suggest we call it a day. Good luck.
Respectfully, RomFil.