On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 69

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It's open. Focus No. 7 has begun.

 
Mikhael1983:

And misunderstood. This is clear from even the simplest and most general considerations. Of course, if a*A + b*B linear combination (where a and b are some constant coefficients and A and B are currency pairs) is predicted in the future based on its past values, then there is no gain, it is completely equivalent to the prediction of A or B alone (we will not consider specific forms of A and B chart, we mean typical price flows).

But it's not a*A + b*B we have as initial information (in the past), but A and B taken separately. That is MORE information. Do you understand? If the initial information is MORE, the prediction can be made FAR more accurate, it's quite obvious. I'm surprised that such elementary physics causes misunderstanding (it's perfectly obvious to sensible people that, for example, from knowledge of A and B it's easier to predict the difference (A - B) than from knowledge only of A/B (not two A/C and B/C relations, but exactly one A/B) to predict the A/B relation).

And if to predict from knowing A and B not some arbitrary "difference (A - B)", but a concrete combination with concrete (convenient) coefficients to A and B, then the prediction accuracy can be even more improve. It's even surprising that such simple things have to be explained. It would seem that many people here have a science or technical education.

Nothing prevents one instrument from taking into account its position relative to another when trading one. Or do you think it is only a prerogative of paired trading? All information that you use in pair trading is also available for trading with one symbol.

 
Aleksei Stepanenko:

It's been six years since our people's standard of living has been declining. Don't you feel it?

That is a fact. But it is also a fact that the government's finances are fine; the CBR's foreign reserves, for example, hit another pre-sanctioned high in January. The time to stop austerity and give money to the people seems to have come, as Putin said in his recent address. And holding large reserves is quite wise.
 
khorosh:

Nothing prevents one instrument from taking its position in relation to another when trading one. Or do you think that's just the prerogative of pair trading? All the information you use in pair trading is also available when trading a single instrument.

No, I don't. That's why, when answering your question about the advantages earlier, I only pointed out the possibility of free choice of coefficients in a linear combination (and the lack of such an opportunity in cross trading).

That is, the only difference is in "And if we predict not some arbitrary "difference (A - B)" but a particular combination, with specific (comfortable for us) odds to A and B, the more accurate prediction may become", besides this truly "All information you use in paired trading is also available when trading with one instrument" (but people do not use that either).

 
Mikhael1983:

I don't. That's why, when answering your question earlier about the advantages, I only pointed out the ability to freely choose the odds in a linear combination (and the lack of such an opportunity in cross trading).

So the only difference is in "And if we need to predict not some arbitrary "difference (A - B)" but a particular combination with specific (convenient) coefficients in front of A and B, the more accurate prediction may become much better", besides this really "All information which you use in paired trading is also available when trading with one instrument" (but people are not using it either).

you won't believe this, but in forex

a-c=a/c.

;)

 
Mikhael1983:

I don't. Therefore, when answering your question about the advantages, I only pointed out the possibility to freely choose ratios in a linear combination (and the lack of such a possibility when trading crosses).

So the only difference is in "If we want to predict not some arbitrary "difference (A - B)" but a certain combination with certain (convenient) ratios in front of A and B, the prediction accuracy can become much better" and "All information which is used in pair trading is also available when trading with one instrument" (but people do not use that either).

The possibility of changing the ratio of lots does not influence the accuracy of entry and exit. I have provided charts of equity for 2 possible lot ratios from which we can see that nothing much changes.

 
Renat Akhtyamov:

You're not gonna believe this, but in forex.

a-in=a/v

;)

I am too lazy to comment on your nonsense, the only thing I will say is that you have written nonsense in order not to dumb down the newcomer readers of the thread.
 
khorosh:

The ability to change the lot ratio does not affect the accuracy of entry and exit in any way. I have given charts of equity for 2 lot ratios, from which you can see that nothing changes significantly.

These charts show that in each case nothing much has changed. If the graphs were changed in any other way, it would have changed.
 
Mikhael1983:
I am too lazy to comment on your nonsense, the only thing I will say is that you have written nonsense in order not to dumb down the newcomer readers of the thread.

You are ahead of the game, time will tell, and not for free.

Now check this out:

You have three graphs superimposed, subtract one from the other and you get a third

;))))

 
Renat Akhtyamov:

You're ahead of the curve, time heals, and not for free

Are you insinuating that you've developed senile dementia? No questions, it happens.
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