On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 67
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Why should the government hoard something that can be printed at any time).
Roughly the same system, but probably with a different calculation.
Thank you, Vitaly!
Interesting system. I understand that January 16 was the maximum spread, which corresponds to the maximum drawdown. I wonder if this is always the case. Do you already have any trading statistics, more or less long term?
Did I get it right, you're looking at the spreadbetween USDJPYandUSDCHF?Thank you, Vitaly!
Interesting system. I understand that January 16 was the maximum spread, which corresponds to the maximum drawdown. I wonder if it's always like that. Do you already have some kind of trading statistics, more or less long term?
And did I get it right, you are looking at the splitbetween USDJPYandUSDCHF?I have the statistics for about 3 years.
I've found only 2 combinations on January 13 and chose this one but it turned out to be unsuccessful, my account didn't suffer any loss, I just spent time on overcompensation. Worse when the time is spent on the way to the ATM for the next deposit)
The statistics are somewhere around three years old.
Can I have a look at the results, if that's convenient? Or in words, overall totals: profitability, drawdown...
Can I see the results, if it's convenient? Or in words, general results: profitability, drawdown...
Profitability depends on the deposit, drawdown is the same. With a deposit of 10,000 a 60% drawdown is normal? But with a deposit of $200, a 90% drawdown is quite normal.
The system gives profit and this is important. I have already registered it as one of the elements of the entries in my account.
The system makes a profit and that's what matters.
Profit is great! 90% is the bottom of course, and 60 seems to be too much, but I understand the difference between the tester and reality. I will have a closer look at the system, thank you!
Sorry mate, I guess I didn't see that question:)
The words about averaging give me the feeling that everything is bad with inputs. There seems to be some logic to the entries here. Of course six trades is not enough for statistics. I can't do without history test or wait for results, what do you think?
Basically, the problems with entry accuracy are the same as when trading with one instrument. A common situation when trading one instrument: we look like a reversal has started and enter, but it turns out to be a correction, and the previous trend continues. Our order turns out to be against the price movement. In pair trading: we see the separation as if the instruments started to move closer, we enter with two orders. But suddenly, the prices of the instruments begin to move apart again and our orders are in the drawdown. The only plus is the probability of starting to converge that is higher after a larger separation. But analysis of mutual position of prices of instruments can also be done when trading with one instrument. Thus, this advantage can be used in both trading methods.
The only upside is that there is still a higher probability of starting to converge after a large spread.
Thanks, that's interesting! And what are the reasons for the increased probability of convergence before not converging? Is there an increased imbalance between the currencies? What do you think is driving the reversal, specifically in the bundle of pairs? Is it the mutual influence of the pairs, or is it the simple overlap of the properties of each currency, pulling back after a move, without mutual influence? And what is the probability value, approximately?
The currency of the most self-sufficient major economy in the world, mind you. With minimal government debt to GDP ratio, maximum government reserves to GDP ratio, and other goodies like incredible natural resources and highly diversified industry (including the world's second largest in money terms and the world's first in kind defence industry, whose efficiency is such that not even dishonest hysteria and cries of sanctions for buying arms from Russia help partners to keep up with it in competing for markets).
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You guys are the optimists.