On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 3

 
Дмитрий:
EUR/GBP + 0.3 does not equal (EUR +0.3)/(GBP+0.3)
Yes, of course. It's strange that you even came up with such a construction as EUR/GBP + 0.3. I can't figure out why you need it and what it has to do with what I've stated. Are you using already? Happy New Year.
 
The direction of price movement is independent of probabilities. Everything is determined by supply and demand in the market, not by probabilities.
 
Mikhael1983:
Thank you for your thoughtful question. "Provariate" means the following: imagine that over some time interval (located to the right of the price chunks shown on the time axis) the value of EN will change, in some way. By some value. Let us denote it by deltaEN. The value of PN will change by the same value, since, I draw your attention once again, the graphs of the euro and pound in relation to the quoted currency N are identical to a constant (one). Accordingly, I find the euro pound EURGBP as the ratio of euro to N and pound to N (EN in the numerator, PN in the denominator). Actually the value 0.3 is just an arbitrary value, one could take any other one. Even 0.1 or 0.5. Just a change that will happen sooner or later (how long it will take - does not matter, the only thing is that the magnitude of the change should be related to the EN itself, if it is about 5.5, it is strange to expect a change of 10 in the foreseeable future, it is still a relatively small change from the last known value).

Well, so I asked you what you meant by "failing the eurofcnt", you said "add an arbitrary value of 0.3 to its quotations".

And then you do NOT add 0.3 to EURFUNT Quotes, you add 0.3 to the numerator and denominator of a fraction - this is not the same thing.

and that's why you get different numbers

 
Vitalii Ananev:
The direction of price movement is independent of probabilities. Everything is determined by supply and demand in the market, not by probabilities.
This is the same difference in descriptions as between dynamics and kinematics. What determines the movement is unimportant for this consideration. What is important is that it is there. I can rephrase to make you feel more comfortable: supply and demand determine the probabilities of price movements up or down, such that they are never equal to 50%.
 
Дмитрий:

Well, so I asked you what you meant by "failing the eurofcnt", you said "add an arbitrary value of 0.3 to its quotations".

And then you do NOT add 0.3 to EURFUNT Quotes, you add 0.3 to the numerator and denominator of a fraction - this is not the same thing.

And that's why you get different numbers.

You asked what it means to provaricate EN, not EP at all. Watch what you are thinking. Then you will find that you are talking about delta EN (and its equal PN).
 
Дмитрий:

So correct the formula - if EURGBP is rising or falling, you should add 0.3 to its quotations, not in the numerator and denominator.

You have an arithmetical error and that is why you get different numbers.

If you don't have a purpose to flub, but really can't understand - I'm unlikely to be able to explain it to you personally. But not because I have an arithmetical error, but for other reasons.
 
Mikhael1983:
It is the same difference in descriptions as between dynamics and kinematics. How motion is defined is unimportant for this consideration. What is important is that it exists. I can rephrase to make you feel more comfortable: supply and demand determine the probabilities of price movements up or down, such that they are never equal to 50%.

What a revelation. It is clear that for the price to start moving up or down, there must be an imbalance between supply and demand. And if the price moves somewhere (especially if it moves very fast) then of course the supply/demand ratio will be 50%. Again, probabilities have nothing to do with it.

 
Mikhael1983:
Yes, of course. Strange that you would even think of a construction like EUR/GBP + 0.3. I can't think why you need it and what it has to do with what I've laid out. Are you using already? Happy New Year.

correctly he wrote

However, than answered your question in full

 
Vitalii Ananev:

It is clear that for the price to start moving up or down, there must be an imbalance between supply and demand. And if the price is moving somewhere (especially if it is moving very fast) then of course the supply/demand ratio will not be 50%.

You have missed the most important word: never. It is argued that the probability of a price move up or down for any pair (except perhaps a pair with a specially constructed quote currency, but that is a separate topic) is never 50%, for any adequate delta value (up or down). And it is not just asserted as self-evident, but proven by simple reasoning involving coordinate transformations (quote currencies). If this is self-evident to you, congratulations, you are quite sane.

 
Renat Akhtyamov:

he wrote correctly

However, he did answer your question in full

Thank you for your opinion, it is also of value to this thread, for it is quite revealing.