From theory to practice - page 931

 
Oleg Shenker:

I thought you knew something about the grail. So far, all the reports are just about the randomness of market prices.

You can play on chance too. People play poker, where the probability is only 1/9 to 1/6, and yet the pros manage to make regular money).

 

I'll defuse it a bit)))) Imho squared)))) Counting ticks, minutes, etc. in an attempt to predict senior frames is like teaching a child to his mother... How can one predict any movement based on the fight of high-frequency units with an admixture of course large ones - I don't know. They have targets there (in the glass) and they see the forest and trade in it. Not moss on trees))))

If I offended anyone, sorry sorry, but watch out.) And if rebutted it's only a pleasure. The market is an abominable substratum) no theorems, no axioms)

 
Yuriy Asaulenko:

You can also play on chance. People play poker, where the odds are only 1/9 to 1/6, and yet the pros manage to make regular money).

We're talking about the grail, not randomness. It is not the probabilities that are important, it is the mathematical expectations. The probability of losing the deposit may be anyhow small, but the mathematical expectation is negative, that is why any martingale will sooner or later lose it. Read N. Taleb.

Poker is a different story. Poker is a psychological game and only secondarily a mathematical game. I'd look at these pros if they were playing with machines.

 
Yuriy Asaulenko:

You can also play on chance. People play poker, where the odds are only 1/9 to 1/6, and yet the pros manage to make regular money).

If you know how to play, it's not a fluke. a fluke is a die.
 
Oleg Shenker:

We are talking about grail, not chance. It's not the probabilities that are important, it's the mathematical expectations.

The mathematical expectation is always the past. The probabilities are the future. You want the Grail, play with probabilities.

 
Yuriy Asaulenko:

Mate expectation is always the past. Probabilities are the future. You want the Grail, play with probabilities.

The phrase makes no sense... The mathematical expectation is calculated on the basis of probability.

 
Damn poker already)))))) I'm not really into it, but even I know that poker is psychology...........)))))))
 
Yuriy Asaulenko:

Mate expectation is always the past. Probabilities are the future. You want the Grail, play with probabilities.

You want to play - play with phases)))))))) or spheres))))))))))))))

 
Oleg Shenker:

And more details from here! Is there a grail or do people just leave the forum for lack of perspective?

Ahem... I've had a lot of conversations with these people on the PM. They literally dug the ground with their noses - worked day and night on their TS. They were just clarifying some things from physics and probability theory with me. And then, just like that, they disappeared from both the forum and the PM.

I will never in my life believe that people who worked like that could give up. The conclusion is that the Grail was found by them. There is no other way.

 
Oleg Shenker:

The phrase makes no sense... The expectation is calculated on the basis of probability.

Bullshit. ME is always an a posteriori value. Probability can also be a priori).