From theory to practice - page 712
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Increase the window by a factor of 10-100 and all will be well. Returns increase as the TF increases. Look at how currency pairs behave over a distance of a few years - they almost stand still.
p.s. You are rude to everyone here, do you think there will be many people willing to help you?
Visually, the profit in the 5th trade and the loss in the 6th trade are roughly the same. Then why are the numbers +282 for 5 trades and -160 for one?
Actually, 5 profitable trades to one losing one is a very good result and by no means a failure.
Another thing is whether the pattern will be the same over a distance of a hundred trades)
In the last one the entry was even lower - drawn too optimistically :)))
Increase the window by a factor of 10-100 and all will be well. Returns increase as the TF increases. Look at how currency pairs behave over a distance of a few years - they almost stand still.
p.s. you are rude here, do you think there will be many people willing to help you?
Ehhhhh... Thanks, Bas. I've really gone off the deep end. Well, it's been a year. I've never had such a hard time in my life.
I'm sorry. You really do give advice when you want it. You have to admit it.
Friends, please have a look at the GBPUSD chart for October-November 2018. These are tests on my new TS.
The green circles are positive trade entries with a "return to average" (5 trades in total with a total profit = 282 pips).
The red circle is a negative trade entry that instantly gave a loss of -160 pips.
Has anyone who trades counter-trends managed to avoid such a setback? How?!? Can you tell me or show me on the chart please...? Well, help me out a little, eh?
Thanks guys!
I will continue reading and thinking.
For those of you who are wondering where I got this chart from, I remind you that the Variance Gamma Process model was applied to the market, with variance:
where:
theta = the arithmetic mean of the increment in the sliding window.
v = actual coefficient of the shape of the increment distribution, where v=1 is the Laplace distribution.
sigma = standard deviation of the increment distribution.
t - time (time sliding window size)
This unique formula has for the FIRST time allowed me to avoid calculating quantiles - everything works out by itself.
And I invented the moving average myself and will not recommend it yet, although Bas probably remembers what I use :)))
Thanks guys!
I will continue reading and thinking.
For those of you who are wondering where I got this chart from, I remind you that the Variance Gamma Process model was applied to the market, with variance:
where:
theta = the arithmetic mean of the increment in the sliding window.
v = actual coefficient of the shape of the increment distribution, where v=1 is the Laplace distribution.
sigma = standard deviation of the increment distribution.
t - time (time sliding window size)
This unique formula has for the FIRST time allowed me to avoid calculating quantiles - everything works out by itself.
And I have invented the moving average myself and will not recommend it yet, although Bas probably remembers me using it :)))
I do not want to disappoint you, but such indicators exist and are even available on the market. (not mine, so not advertising) .
Moreover, because the channel looks great, there is also a lot of ruckus...up to and including near-crime, break-ins and mutual accusations....
But there are no trading systems or just people who methodically trade on this miracle.
I hate to break it to you, but there are indicators like this on the market. (not mine, so not advertising).
The channel looks great, so there is a lot of noise there too... up to and including near-crime, break-ins and mutual accusations...
But there are no trading systems or just people who methodically trade on this miracle.
...
Has anyone who trades counter-trends managed to avoid such a setback? How?!? Give me a hint or show me on the chart, please...? Well, help me out a little, huh?
Since you're making a modification of Bollinger Bands, I think it might be useful to https://www.mql5.com/ru/blogs/post/718865 the author's other stuff as well. After all, the problems are the same. Just like you, there is no defining idea of choice, all sorts of indicators are tried. For example:
Since, by all means, you are creating a modification of the Bollinger Bands, I think it might be useful to https://www.mql5.com/ru/blogs/post/718865 the author's other materials as well. After all, the problems are the same. Just like you, there is no defining idea to choose from, all sorts of indicators are tried. For example these are:
If you look into these formulas like this, you get a Bollinger on a 2nd order butler.
1. Whether or not to draw trend lines, the type of these lines, the timing and the way they are drawn is a matter of taste. It is important to understand the other thing:
2. There are definitely trends in the market.
3. It is ridiculous to try to describe the tendency with the help of statistics, regardless of the ratios and other crutches applied. A deterministic process will never produce an adequate probability model, it is simply foolish to construct one. There is a random component, but it is for scalpers.
4. now what to do with it. If I want to make profit on the market, then my first task is to detect the moments of market changes in time. There is no task to model the process, only to recognize it.
5. The moments of market changes - change of trend, or its correction. And then there is a flat.
6. Now a bit of philosophy. There are laws: the unity and struggle of opposites and the law of negation of negation. The opposite of a trend is its reversal (trend in the opposite direction), its negation is a return to the current trend (non-confirmation of a breakdown), and the negation is a signal for reversal/correction after a previous similar signal.
7. Everything. Example in the figure. There is no trend, but an up position is open. Previous trends are shown.
8. Things are worse with a flat, but also solvable.