From theory to practice - page 341
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Not a deviation, but a single increment. But A_K2 does not trade a single increment, it trades just the deviation from the SMA, which consists of many consecutive increments. For these deviations we have to construct our own distribution and calculate our own probability. Besides, the SMA itself shifts during a trade so it is a big question whether the closing price will be in profit. Good idea is to draw a distribution of deviations over time from the entry price, and I suppose it will be much closer to the uniform than to the normal.
In short, all this spam about streams and distributions is pure scientific water without the slightest understanding of what's going on) Normality for our purposes means... well, nothing at all, except that it is normal.)
Yes. But it still does not absolutely mean that the price will then return back to the SMA (and even more so that it will return enough from the entry price to make a profit). The price may as well stay in the same place for a long time, and then go further and the SMA will follow it, and you will not see that in your distributions. Probability of return has to be calculated separately as well. But it is much easier to write a simple TS and run it on the history.I wasn't trying to analyze Alexander's trading method, I was simply pointing out a generally available rule regarding the normal distribution.
what if you think about it? the residuals are analysed to see if the model has selected all the information. If they are noise, it's OK. Trend and severity are killed for homoscedasticity, cycles remain for forecasting. No periodic cycles - no forecast (except for expected payoff).
In the market cycles are non-periodic, so ARIMA does not work, but try to apply GARCH for variable variance (heteroscedasticity), when the process memory cannot be completely killed, and the next volatility values depend on the previous ones
Alexander has proposed a way to kill the ARCH effect (process memory, markness, fat tails) and his narrative cannot be called wrong or absurd in any way
The logic is still not apparent.
Assuming that the goal is to catch these non-periodic cycles to make predictions, it is the process memory that is indicative of the presence of these cycles, so this memory should be extracted and analysed, not destroyed.
Who said that? Bullshit.
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%93%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C
Even if the series is heteroscedastic, it is quite predictable.
You must mean homoscedastic BP to make a prediction.
But again, it seems absurd to pick out noise in such a GR and use it to make a forecast since all information about such a GR is embedded in the signal, not in the noise.
I wasn't trying to analyse Alexander's trading method, I was just pointing out a generally available rule regarding normal distribution.
Well, that rule is completely useless for profit taking.
Yes, it's a good thread on the link. And the post is very correct. A lot of people have written about the fact that no "forecasts" are needed to make a profit at all. (Just who's listening)...
"By the way, realising the fact that you don't need to predict anything in a random flow (just unpredictable) has allowed me to build a trading system that can in principle squeeze out any "reasonable" return. Reasonable in the sense of not getting picked on the arse and being asked to change brokers or get out of the markets altogether, and also in the sense of deposit size.
One has to exploit the available EVIDENCE properties, which turn out to be the same in random flows and forex flows. For some reason I have seen "obvious" properties only when I have made GSH with Eurobucks distribution. Although almost everyone knows about them. And I knew them before RNG, but I did not realize at once that my luck is in them". (с)
--
The post I was replying to has disappeared. Here's the link
https://forum.alpari.com/index.php?/topic/22174-форекс-лучшее-он-лайн-казино/&page=9
Yes, it's a good thread on the link. And the post is very correct. A lot of people have written about the fact that no "forecasts" are needed to make a profit at all. (Just who's listening)...
"By the way, realising the fact that you don't need to predict anything in a random flow (just unpredictable) has allowed me to build a trading system that can in principle squeeze out any "reasonable" return. Reasonable in the sense of not getting picked on the arse and being asked to change brokers or get out of the markets altogether, and also in the sense of deposit size.
One has to exploit the available EVIDENCE properties, which happen to be the same in random flows and forex flows. For some reason I have seen "obvious" properties only when I have made GSH with Eurobucks distribution. Although almost everyone knows about them. And I knew them before RNG, but I did not understand that my luck is in them". (с)
Which link?
- Don't read the Soviet papers before lunch.
- There are no other newspapers.
- So don't read any. (с)
A_K2 wiped his posts and deleted his friends from his profile, and you're just pissed off...
That's how it turns out. He also called everyone yellow earthworms. As a farewell, so to speak.
I should unfriend him too.
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From Theory to Practice
Alexander_K2, 2018.04.27 03:11
Faced with outright downism in the form of assertion that one cannot predict series of random numbers with Erlang distribution, I am forced to leave the forum forever. If you want it, you'll find my wife's personal account, I'll be in touch there from time to time.
Thanks to: Warlock, Doc, Nova and people like you who supported me during my 6 months on the forum. If it gets tough, the wooden Grail is at your service. Will there be a golden Grail? There will be. I, with Schrodinger's cat, am going on a long journey to get it.
Sincerely,
Alexander_K.