Donald - Nathanson - page 5

 
prikolnyjkent:


You didn't mention another mechanism that allows you to profitably trade SBs with variable lot, with no betting restrictions, without fearing for the deposit, both practically and theoretically.

Rationale: the presence of "creative" potential in a movement of raw data values to a NOTHING less than "destructive" potential.

Please elaborate.

It seems to me random data (truly random) has no potential, there is nothing in it at all, just chaos.

 
Dmitry Fedoseev:

Please elaborate.

It seems to me that random data (truly random) has no potential, there is nothing in it at all, just chaos.


Random data does.

Stochastic data does not.

 
Dmitry Fedoseev:

Please elaborate.

It seems to me that random data (truly random) has no potential, there is nothing in it at all, just chaos.


Random series = Deterministic series + Stochastic component
 
Дмитрий:

Random series = Deterministic series + Stochastic component

I know this definition, but I don't like it, it's kind of crooked.

So flipping a coin is not a random series, it's stochastic. Such a word - "stochastic" and means no one knows in people, and here is such a trick, so random is actually not random, and to call a random in general some word nobody knows. This is from the field where data has the first difference before calculating the correlation)).

 
Dmitry Fedoseev:

...

It seems to me that random data (truly random) has no potential, there is nothing in it at all, just chaos.


Well, if so, then it's not at all clear what kind of long losing series the speakers here are afraid of

You should probably ask them...

 
Dmitry Fedoseev:

I know this definition, but I don't like it, it's kind of crooked.

So flipping a coin is not random, it's stochastic. Such a word - "stochastic" and means no one knows in people, and here is such a trick, so random is actually not random, and to call a random in general some word nobody knows. This is from the field where the first difference in the data is counted before calculating the correlation)).

A deterministic series is a series that is 100% predictable.

A stochastic series is a series that is 100% unpredictable.

A random series is a combination of a deterministic and a stochastic series.

All probability theory, mathematical statistics, machine learning is random series prediction. In all forecasting methods a random series is distinguished by a deterministic part and a stochastic component

 
Дмитрий:

A deterministic series is a series that is 100% predictable.

A stochastic series is a series that is 100% unpredictable.

A random series is a combination of a deterministic and a stochastic series.

All probability theory, mathematical statistics, machine learning is random series prediction. In all forecasting methods a random series is distinguished by a deterministic part and a stochastic part


Coin, roulette, dice, etc. - are not predictable.

Statistics is yes, it works by having a deterministic component. But for probability theory, determinism is not necessary, probability theory works with probabilities.

 

The top starter may disagree with me as well as many others, but in my opinion there is nothing random about price movements. If demand is higher than supply the price goes up demand is lower the price goes down. The direction of price movement cannot just turn sharply in the opposite direction just because a random event occurred. The actions of the crowd (small traders or meat),big traders, banks and other market makers are behind that. If you add an element of analysis to this system then you can increase the number of profitable by another 10%.

 
Vitalii Ananev:

The top starter may disagree with me as well as many others, but in my opinion there is nothing random about price movements. If demand is higher than supply the price goes up demand is lower the price goes down. The direction of price movement cannot just turn sharply in the opposite direction just because a random event occurred. The actions of big traders, banks and other market makers are behind that. If you add an element of analysis to this system you can increase the number of profitable trades by another 10%.


If there is nothing random in the price, then where is your billion?
 
Дмитрий:

If there is nothing random about the price, where is your billion?


Good question. :) Same place as a million.

...

If you have 1,000 dollars and a 10% annual income from it, how many years would it take you to make a billion?