FOREX and ECONOMETRY. Theory, practice, forecasts and implications - page 15
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
You have already checked (???):
If you want to check it, open a live lock. The price will go straight into the middle of it.
You immediately ask yourself - who moved the price to the centre of the lock - the big players or....?
Are you familiar with the concept of the spread? This is he, the bastard, instantly moves the price to the centre of the lock ...
The 10% who make money on forex and the 90% who lose have nothing to do with the buying/selling that forms the current price.
There is in fact a foreign exchange market. Some clients of this market use it elementary, as an exchange office, where you can exchange various currencies for some mutual settlements with foreign counterparties, some are engaged in investing activities, investing in some assets. They are the ones who provide the main turnover on the currency market, accordingly, based on their supply/demand the real exchange rate is determined. Besides the above-mentioned categories of clients on the currency market, there are also speculators - those who operate on the market for the purpose of making money on subsequent changes in rates. Solid speculators have enough money to be able to "swing" the market in their favorable direction. (All sorts of macro events have an effect on price fluctuations, but for simplicity we will not consider them now).
But there is also a large group of people, whose means do not allow them to be full participants of the exchange market, but they want to earn on fluctuations of financial instruments. Forex is their destiny. What Forex participants do is not speculative trading. More exactly, it can be named a complicated version of betting on guessing the movements of financial instruments in the real forex-mimulator of the foreign exchange market. It is a kind of a "simulator" for a financial speculator. And the percentage of winners/losses of your bets in this simulator will have absolutely no effect on world currency rates.
Well, that's something close to the truth now.
Can you see the same spread in the pictures from CME and OAND?
If you see it, reconsider your posts in terms of where the price is, who benefits and who does not benefit and who moves it.
And then look here:
The villain is actually the price (KUKL). Everyone is disadvantaged - buyers and sellers alike. Hence the 10 to 90 ratio. And it is likely that most of those currently in the lucky 10% will complement the 90% to 100 with a probability of 0.9 after a while, with a very tiny exception.
I tried to make a sample of the time series for later analysis.
Naturally, I did not want a simple sample, but one that would lead to at least a formula that would allow me to first "take apart" the quotation by parts and then "put it back together".
In this case the formula is simple:
the sum of the vectors relative to the current price is zero.
Now I will move on to the analysis using the same econometric theory and see if it makes any difference.
I propose to try to take apart the "parts" MA:
MA = a + oO + hH + lL + cC
and look at the change of coefficients for a possible hint on the market condition. The formulas to determine the ratios are here https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/86249/page3
A little excursion into forex market theory from personal experience....
The business called "forex", like any other financial or stock market, allows its owner to make money by introducing erroneous client entries. By the way, econometrics discusses this in detail in the section dealing with autocorrelation coefficients and the construction of the autocorrelation function. You are aware of it.
This is achieved just by increasing the spread of the price relative to the one that is actually correct. The client has nowhere to go and starts applying averaging. That is, he or she deliberately, by his or her own hands, makes mistakes to enter the market.
Therefore, any kind of averaging will be avoided.
There is a quote in MT5. Maybe you mean export?
I tried to make a sample of the time series for later analysis.
Naturally, I did not want a simple sample, but one that would lead to at least a formula that would allow me to first "take apart" the quotation by parts and then "put it back together".
In this case the formula is simple:
the sum of the vectors relative to the current price is zero.
Now I will move on to the analysis, using the same econometric theory and see if it is of any use.
It is useful - if one analyses such a sample, one can "disassemble" it, "reassemble" it, put it, break it, mix it, etc.
But when adding another bar (+1 observation) the sum of increments will no longer equal 0 and all obtained results will be useless for forecasting.
I will write you such a programme. Are you interested in MT5 or MT4?
//I don't take money
I need to get an exel file of euro/dollar quotes from 1973 to date in OHLC format on TF D1.
Open terminal - Tools - Quote Archive - Export - Save file to computer.
Then open Excel - Data - From other sources - Import XML data - Select data source (not XML files, but All files) - select the saved file - tick the "With separators" box.
Open terminal - Tools - Quote Archive - Export - Save file to computer.
Then open Excel - Data - From other sources - Import XML data - Select data source (not XML files, but All files) - select the saved file - tick the "With delimiters" box).