The philosophy of algotrading - page 15
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
1. half of the information is now covered by technical analysis, because the other half, in the form of market price, is hidden from the eyes of the observer.
2. Observations have shown that it is the impact of the virtual market price that makes a change in trend direction.
3. about making "smart" robots, it can be said that they have all their intelligence in the algorithm, outside or beyond which they cannot get clever.
1. "Hidden from view of an observer" - a subjective point of view, tied to a specific theory.
Another point of view is that there is enough information to work consistently in the market, and you just need to know how to work with this amount of information. Proof of this is 5% of successful traders in the market.
2. "The Virtual Market Price is a continuation of this subjective theory. You can supplement your information, of course, if it ACTUALLY gives you something. But in this case it will be a different market, DIFFERENT from the actual market, and the divergence of these markets will inevitably affect the profit itself, and most likely not for the better.
3. The creation of "intelligent" robots begins after the creation of OVERALL PRIVATE robots, and there is still a long way to go...
...
3. The creation of "smart" robots starts after the creation of OVERALL PROFITABILITY robots, and there is still a long way to go before that...
Wouldn't you agree with me that profits among competitors always go to the stronger of the two? However, of course there must be competition as such.
What kind of competition can there be in a market? - Obviously between the strategies used .
If this thesis is correct, where does its logical development lead us to? - The game on the market must be meaningful.
Intelligent means built on deductions, which may include not only mathematical predictions of price movements over the next few minutes, but also sophisticated technical and even fundamental analysis.
Then the competition between trading robots as such will emerge, and profits will flow to the strongest strategies.
P.S. And the result of their competition will be a more meaningful and proper distribution of funds between companies, which of course will be of public benefit :)
1. meaningful means built on deductions, which may include not only mathematical predictions of price movements over the next few minutes, but also sophisticated technical and even fundamental analysis.
That's when the competition between trading robots as such will begin and the profit will go to the strongest strategies. 2.
1. Yes, you can go in this direction, but the axiom - PRICE INCLUDES EVERYTHING!!! - says that fundamental analysis is ALREADY INCLUDED in the price...
And "predicting price movements" is a dead end path as it moves into the realm of supernatural abilities.
Yes, perhaps you meant to say Predict within a certain mathematical model, but that is a different, entirely possible path.
2) There is no competition in FOREX, because this market is VERY BIG, and there is enough room for everyone with ANY strategies.
1. Yes, you can go in that direction, but the axiom - PRICE INCLUDES EVERYTHING!!! - says that fundamental analysis is ALREADY INCLUDED in the price...
And "predicting price movements" is a dead end path, as it moves into the realm of supernatural abilities.
2. Yes, you may have meant to say Predict within a certain mathematical model, but that's a whole other, quite possible way.
...
1. The fact is that traders fall into two categories:
a) Traders who chase the price trying to figure out where it's going to go next. This category is divided into several sub-categories depending on the trader's scale - scalpers, mid-term, long-term and investor. These traders use different kinds of analysis to predict price movements:
b) The second category - traders who determine where the price will go. This category of traders (very rich) decides by themselves where the price will go, because they invest huge money and pull the market after them. These traders surely use the fundamental analysis and do not predict the price movement, they determine it themselves. They can influence the crowd and motivate it to buy or sell.
The axiom -"the price includes everything" exists only for the first category of traders, because it only obeys the movement that has already been decided. It is this decision that the price includes. For the second category of traders the price forecast is not necessary. They operate with completely different tools for market analysis.
2. Forecasting within mathematical models is a very narrow prediction. It is a dead-end development for those who apply it.
We should strive to improve automated analysis by making robots "smarter" and adding thinking abilities to their capabilities, at least partially. And this idea has a lot of potential.
1. The fact is that traders fall into two categories:
a) Traders who chase the price, trying to figure out where it's going to go next. This category is divided into several sub-categories depending on the scale of the trader - scalpers, mid-term, long-term and investor. These traders use different kinds of analysis to predict price movements:
b) The second category - traders, who determine themselves where the price will go. This category of traders (very rich) decides by themselves where the price will go, because they invest a lot of money and pull the market after them. These traders surely use the fundamental analysis and do not predict the price movement, they determine it themselves. They can influence the crowd and motivate it to buy or sell.
The axiom -"the price includes everything" exists only for the first category of traders, because it only obeys the movement that has already been decided. It is this decision that the price includes. For the second category of traders the price forecast is not necessary. They use completely different tools for market analysis. 3.
2. Forecasting within mathematical models is a very narrow prediction. It is a dead-end development for those who apply it.
3. We must strive to enlarge automatic analysis by making robots "smarter" and adding the ability to think at least partially to their capabilities. This idea has a lot of potential.
1. Yes, you are right that you do not belong to the second category, and that's the only reason your thread is still readable by someone....
ALL of us here belong to the first category, so you have to be practical about it!
2. You are wrong here, and that is YOUR personal opinion. I won't dissuade you from that...
3. I agree with the third question, as before... But before making 5th generation fighters it is necessary to teach the "veneer" to fly first - no one cancelled systems development, and jumping over a couple of steps will not work... And now, even in the first approximation, there are no STABLE PROFITABILITIES - just child's playthings from a novice constructor...
1. Yes, you are right in that you are not in the second category and that is the only reason your thread is still being read by anyone....
ALL of us here are in the first category, and therefore need to approach the matter practically!
2. You are wrong here, and that is YOUR personal opinion. I will not dissuade you from that...
You are getting annoyed for nothing. Everything I write is my subjective opinion. :)
I'm not forcing anyone to read my thread.
...
3. I agree with the third question, as before... But before making 5th generation fighters you have to first teach the 'veneer' to fly - no one has cancelled systems development, and jumping over a few notches won't work...
Of course, the development process is long and difficult. Of course, you can't jump over a few steps...
But isn't the awareness of the right direction the key to achieving the goal? If so, it is a direction that needs to be thought about now...
Serqey Nikitin:
And now, even in the first approximation, there are no STABLE PROFITABILITY COUNTRIES - just child's handicrafts from a novice constructor...
I totally agree. However, I think it is because instead of technical analysis and medium- and long-term strategies, scalping and mathematical forecasting are totally devoid of any objective meaning.
Basically - only the developer's subjective views on the field, visible only through one parameter - price.
However, I think it is because instead of technical analysis and medium-term and long-term strategies scalping and mathematical prediction are used, deprived of any objective sense.
You are wrong. There are market regularities and they do not only work in scalping....
Example: Forecast on euro/dollar (EUR/USD) for the week 09-01-2017 to 13-01-2017 - what kind of strategy does this analysis belong to?
Your opinion on the matter: "mathematical prediction is devoid of any objective meaning" is wrong because of lack of sufficient practical knowledge in this field...
Well, that's fixable - what are your years ?!? ....
1. You are wrong. There are market regularities and they don't just work in scalping....
Example: Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) Forecast for the week 09-01-2017 to 13-01-2017 - in your opinion, what type of strategy does this analysis belong to?
2. Your opinion on "mathematical forecasting is devoid of any objective meaning" is wrong due to lack of sufficient practical knowledge in this area...
Well, that's fixable - what are your years ?!? ....
1. I did not claim that market patterns do not exist at all. I meant that it is useless to try to "follow" the market laws, using only mathematical tools and one main parameter (albeit with an infinite number of derived parameters) - the price.
However, only this tool and only this approach is used by most scalpers. When saying that there are no stable profitable Expert Advisors, don't you mean scalping EAs? Doesn't it demonstrate the effectiveness of mathematical prediction of price used by scalpers?
2. Let me try to use a simple analogy to show an example that will explain my disbelief in mathematical price prediction:
Imagine a theatre stage. The stage. The curtain is closed but the action is going on...
The audience is full, but they are deaf. They can only see a two-dimensional space and the shadows on it.
Trying to enjoy the spectacle, each one strains his imagination to understand what is happening on the stage behind the curtain. Each looks only at the shadows that fall from the actors' feet.
They don't know the production, the director, the names of the actors and they can't hear the music of the orchestra. Their perception is so poor that they cannot even smell it.
For us such narrow-mindedness is strange, if we do not take into account that in certain situations we are spectators in such a hall.
So there you have it - a deaf and hard-of-hearing audience trying to understand the action only by the shadows of their feet on the stage floor. However, a tribute must be paid to the fertile imagination and the educated nature of the audience. They make a lot of assumptions and theories about what is going on behind the scenes. They try to understand it through different kinds of shadow motion analysis. Mathematical analysis is one of them.
Understanding the limitations of spectators' perception it becomes clear that they will never gain an objective understanding of what is going on and the world their imagination depicts will have nothing in common with the performance. There will only be a mesmerising play of shadows from their feet...
I make my conclusion from the above-mentioned - mathematical analysis has nothing in common with the play and it is impossible to understand its action from this analysis.
But, in the absence of choice...
P.S. So my logic is that we should increase the amount of market data we analyse and not get hung up on one price and its derivatives, so as not to become like the audience in the hall.