neural network and inputs - page 22
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Really, let's be specific, shall we?
Task one, simple) to predict tomorrow's closing price. Let's not delve into the depths of NS, let's not talk about what is more productive to predict the high or low, or even "chew" on econometrics - also omit, just about inputs, who would use what for such a task? What contains the grit of information about tomorrow's closing price? Generally speaking, it seems to me that everything is simple here - we take the last 5 to 10 bars, their High, Low, Open/Close, and then we try the first and the second differences, all sorts of ratios, increments, etc. In general, if anyone thinks otherwise, it will be interesting to listen.
The second task is more complicated and I'm on the subject of the day, or rather the night). We want to predict what is "next", roughly speaking, a trend or flat (or volatility or "calm", for example)? Here I am in a puddle. It would seem that it is much easier. One does not need to know the price, not even the direction, but simply to predict the nature of the market. My gut tells me I cannot do without indicators that I hate (at least they must be able to interpret correctly the status quo on history), but what to use, how to use them - can't you imagine? Do you have any ideas?
1. The confidence interval of such a prediction will be so high that it may be thrown in the oven.
2. First of all, formalize the "nature of the market" - a trend or flat. I have not encountered such a formalization yet.
It's not specifics, it's just another invention of the perpetual motion machine. Imho - there is no future, there is only the present and history, and if there is no future, there is no way to find what there is not ))))).
I remember talking to traders who only earn by trading, if you want to be specific, they are primarily interested in practical questions:
1. where do i place a stop loss?
2. when to stop trading ?
I.e. they are interested in the mathematical apparatus (or NS) able to predict the risks, they say that is enough for their monthly earnings.
Это не конкретика, а очередное изобретение вечного двигателя. Имхо - будущего нет, есть только настоящее и история, а если будущего нет, то нет и способа найти то чего нет )))))
Вспомнил общение с трейдерами которые зарабатывают исключительно трейдингом, если хотите конкретику, то их прежде всего интересуют практические вопросы:
1. где поставить stop loss ?
2. когда остановить торговлю ?
т.е. им интересен мат.аппарат (или НС) способный предсказать риски, они говорят этого достаточно для ежемесячного заработка
They don't seem to open positions - they only place stop-losses?
Apparently yes, can't remember the nickname on this forum (in runet 6ETrader ) when looking at any set-up in the beginning says: "this is where I put the stop loss and then....."
It's not specifics, it's just another invention of the perpetual motion machine. Imho - there is no future, there is only the present and history, and if there is no future, there is no way to find what there is not )))))
There is no future, there is a future... Demagoguery. A few centuries ago mankind thought the earth was flat, so don't be so categorical. We don't know the future, but we can predict it with some certainty. My experience says that markets can be predicted. When I say "you can predict the market" I mean that you can predict the future more than 50% of the time. There are enough pitfalls, but in principle it is enough for profitable trading.
All methods of this prediction can be divided into 3 groups: FA, TA, and shamanism. Since we're on the forum of automatic TS we should speak about TA for FA and shamanism are poorly subject to automation. TA methods are based on search of patterns in historical data and NS are quite suitable for these purposes
So you say:
i.e. they are interested in a mathematical apparatus (or NS) capable of predicting risks, they say that is enough to make a monthly income
1. where to put the stop loss ?
2. when to stop trading ?
i.e. they are interested in a mathematical apparatus (or NS) capable of predicting risks, they say this is enough for monthly earnings
+100%
Forecasts and price predictions are from the evil one, but fortunately this is not required. Knowing where to place a stop is essentially understanding the market.
There is no need to look beyond the right border of the chart, the future is unknown, but to understand what is happening in the present, here and now, what the process is - quite another thing. The more we know what and how is happening on the left edge, in the present time, the less we need to look beyond the right one and forecast anything.
Regarding trend/float. Trend equation is known - it is straight line y=kx+b, but it hardly helps in this form, a flat is an illusion (there are many of them on the graph, this is one of them), no one can provide a flat equation or separate a flat from a trend in real time.
no, stop-loss at the beginning - don't know where to put the stop-loss - stay out of the market! - Those aren't my words.
Demagoguery. Centuries ago mankind thought the earth was flat, so don't be so categorical. We don't know the future, but we can predict it with some certainty.
There, there - now that's demagoguery for sure, what you call predicting with certainty, I would call it simpler - engaging in guessing
ZS: The weather forecasts were also guessed at the beginning of the year, but this year they didn't ))))
no, stop-loss at the beginning - don't know where to put the stop-loss - stay out of the market! - That's not what I said.
There, there - now it's demagoguery, what you call predicting with certainty, I would call it simpler - we're guessing.
SZZY: weather forecasts were guessing at the beginning of the year too, but this year it's not )))).
Why are you explaining everything so out in the open like that ;)I agree 100% that this is pure demagoguery - just talk
Any stop-loss is placed or calculated for a specific position. Do you set a stop-loss and then think short or long? This is nonsense.
If a trader sees an entry in long position and does not see the level of stop-loss and therefore does not open a position, he still first predicts a rise or fall in the price and then looks at the level of possible stop-loss
Any stop loss is set or calculated for a specific position. Do you set a stop-loss and then think short or long? That's bullshit.
Not really. That's how I used to trade. Here's an example, the price approaches a yearly high, a strong support or resistance level etc. We open a position in the opposite direction and stop-loss just behind this level. A significant level will allow us to place a very short stop loss, the triggering of which will not cause any harm to our deposit. And in general, in any case it is either good or not bad... I.e., I traded when it was possible to place a short stop, the direction was determined by the stop.
But than having some kind of trading options, "understanding" something "hidden" allows one to talk:
Forecasts and price predictions are bogus.
There, there - now it's demagoguery, what you call predicting with certainty, I would call it simple - we are guessing.