The challenge: What is cheap and what is expensive? - page 10

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Reshetov:

Well, then why do you need such a manager?

Try posting TOR for a job in the spirit of: "Write me this, I don't know what, and pay me on results. And you'll be sent far away.

Therefore, a manager who is not able to formulate a clear order to the dealing department, so that the performers understand what they have to do and what they must not do, is also not needed. The manager should manage and the executives should execute (excuse me for another tautology).


Well, believe it or not, in large companies it is different people. Some say buy and how much others buy at optimal prices for that time. Usually it is a trading day, and the optimal buy is considered to be below the volume-weighted average price. Because on an average trading day, buyers have bought at exactly this price, so if they have bought lower, they have bought better than the market average
 

P.S. And the managers are not speculators for the most part and do not use TA at all. That is why at most they can say not more expensive than what price to buy. But this not more expensive can be achieved with absolutely different results. Including screwing their company at the expense of bad performance, though formally to keep to "not more expensive".

P.S2 buy at a weighted average is elementary. Crushing the volum and throwing it away at equal intervals. There are machines for this type TWAP, VWAP. But it's not so easy to buy below that price. In terms of the potato problem, buy an equal volume from each woman.

 
There is another point in the bride problem that is often forgotten. The grooms are arranged randomly. Suppose the bride is interested in the height of the groom, if the grooms stand randomly, not according to their height, then the classical solution of this problem is suitable. But if the grooms are a company or two of soldiers lined up according to height, then no. It's the same in the market. As long as there is a "saw", maybe this solution will work. But when there is a trend, that's it - the solution is not suitable.
 
ULAD:

We already have 1/2 of the prices to analyse the market.

If we find potatoes below the minimum price, we buy 5 sacks, or as the row increases, we buy closer to the minimum price.

There is no other way.)))

There is an error inherent here, and a fundamental one at that. In forex, one buys in order to sell later at a better price, even at a loss, sometimes (SL) in order to avoid a deeper drawdown. They sell in order to buy later. Therefore, one cannot analyse only buying in isolation from later selling and vice versa.
 
The analogy between the forex market and the potato bazaar always exists, but the patterns (I emphasise not the laws) can be quite different.
 
DmitriyN:

An important topic? I think so, especially considering that most of the programming traders either are not familiar with the basic trading rule "Buy low, sell high" or simply cannot translate it into program code. Otherwise, how can one explain numerous purchases on hawks? Inattention, greed, martingale?

Let's try to formulate together what is Cheap and what is Expensive? How do you understand it? How do you formalize it?

I suggest that we start by solving a simple task. The task is simplified, hypothetical, exaggerated, but the meaning, I think, will be clear:

We have come to an agricultural market and our task is to buy five bags of potatoes (50 kg). We should buy them, if possible, at the lowest possible price and then sell them without any problems. We go inside the market and see a long counter (100m). Behind the counter, along the side of it, there are 50 grandmothers sitting. Each woman sells sacks of potatoes for her own price, the prices are fixed, you cannot bargain, the sacks are all the same. Each woman has more than 5 sacks.

The thing is, we can only go to one side of the counter. If we see a new price, we cannot buy at the previous price, that is the condition of the problem. We have gone through 20 baskets and received the following price range (rub/bag): 650, 680, 750, 510, 480, 710, 620, 580, 490, 720, 670, 620, 890, 760, 790, 840, 680, 540, 610, 580.

So we have a range of prices. What will be your next steps? We don't know the further 30 prices yet. What further price will be your buying criterion? We still have 30 more dough ahead of us. We can either buy at some price (or prices - from different broads) or refuse to buy at all and go to another market.

What would you do? Below what price would you decide to "Buy"?
Or would you perhaps use some kind of system when buying potatoes and buy from several broads at once?


I am interested in all opinions. Besides, there are mathematically savvy people among the forum participants, their opinions are especially interesting. How do you go about the markets and shops, gentlemen mathematicians?
Please, your opinions .....
I will express mine later.

A completely theoretical statement that has nothing to do with the marketplace. It does not matter whether you buy high or low. It is important to buy on the market or against the market. The latter depends on the investment horizon. You bought potatoes to sell in an hour or bought them in the fall and sold them in the spring. These horizons have different trends and are not related to each other.

Once again, I don't understand what is being discussed.

 
The following situation is more correct for forex. On Tuesday, the average price of potatoes is 500 rubles, on Wednesday 510, Thursday - 520. The price rises on the eve of the weekend, in anticipation of an influx of buyers on the weekend. Every day the price falls below the average before market closing. On Thursday they bought 510 on Friday, kept the price and sold a small price of 530p. On Saturday the price was 600p, but took very little. On Sunday came the lorries from the neighboring region.Selling at 500 p.. The buyer was thirsty. On Monday the price -500, etc.. You have 2/3 of potatoes not sold, bought at 510 r. at the minimum of the day. What do you do?
 
Sta2066:
For forex the following situation is more correct. On Tuesday, the average price of potatoes -500 rubles, on Wednesday 510, on Thursday - 520. The price rises on the eve of the weekend, in anticipation of an influx of buyers on the weekend. Every day the price falls below the average before market closing. On Thursday they bought 510 on Friday, kept the price and sold a small price of 530p. On Saturday the price was 600p, but took very little. On Sunday came the lorries from the neighboring region.Selling at 500 p.. The buyer was thirsty. On Monday the price -500, etc.. You have 2/3 of potatoes not sold, bought at 510 r. at the minimum of the day. What do you do?

Exactly right.

Expensive-cheap relative to the trend. We can specify: expensive-cheap relative to the trend in the overbought-oversold zones (if we know how to identify the latter).

 
Sta2066:
The following situation is more correct for forex. On Tuesday, the average price of potatoes is 500 rubles, on Wednesday 510, on Thursday 520. The price goes up in anticipation of the weekend, in anticipation of an influx of buyers on the weekend. Every day the price falls below the average before market closing. On Thursday they bought 510 on Friday, kept the price and sold a small price of 530p. On Saturday the price was 600p, but took very little. On Sunday came the lorries from the neighboring region.Selling at 500 p.. The buyer was thirsty. On Monday the price -500, etc.. You have 2/3 of potatoes not sold, bought at 510 r. at the minimum of the day. What do you do?

to spread a rumour that potatoes from the neighbouring region are spoiled by the Colorado potato beetle

 
Digamma:

spread the rumour that potatoes from the neighbouring region are spoiled by the Colorado potato beetle

Start building a "portfolio". Carrots, onions, cabbage, etc... All markets are pretty much the same.
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