Econometrics: let's discuss the CU balance sheet. - page 22
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It would be very much appreciated if you didn't propagate your own spin, at least on this thread. Your unwillingness to notice other, referenced points of view is particularly unpleasant.
Stationarity is mo + dispersion .
Without considering variance you have produced nonsense in your reasoning about equity.
Stationarity is the constancy of MO.
Ergodicity is the constancy of MO, variance, autocorrelation function.
Engage in intellectual masturbation with the concepts of "broad" and "narrow" meaning and make up your own terms - without me.
"Your unwillingness to notice other, referenced points of view is particularly unpleasant." - I didn't see any references. Where were they?
Stationarity - permanence of MO
Ergodicity - constancy of MO, variance, autocorrelation function
Engaging in intellectual masturbation with the concepts of "broad" and "narrow" meaning and making up your own terms - without me.
"Your unwillingness to notice other, referenced points of view is particularly unpleasant." - didn't see any references. Where were they?
a random walk with mo=0 and variance=const is a stationary process?
a random walk with mo=0 and dispersion=const is a stationary process?
and the MO and variance of SB remain constant regardless of time?
are these SB characteristics time-dependent?
(If you write the stationarity checking procedure 500 times in one thread, it is of no use).
and the MO and dispersion of SB remain constant regardless of time?
are these SB characteristics time dependent?
Let's say class SB, let's say flip a coin - heads=+1, tails=-1 and sum up the results of the flip sequence. The coin is fair - probability of heads=probability of tails=0.5.
s.s. It doesn't matter. SB is still SB))
let's say a classy SB, let's say a coin flip - heads=+1, tails=-1 and add up the results of the flip sequence. The coin is fair - probability of heads=probability of tails=0.5
a clear and precise question has been asked!
Answer it (only honestly) and you don't need my answer.
a clear and straightforward question was asked!
You answer it (only honestly) and you don't need my answer anymore.
I gave you a specific model known to all. You don't know what random walk is? Is classical random walk a stationary process?
I use the following definition of stationarity:
A series is weakly or covariantly stationary if the mean and autocovariance of the series are independent of time.
This definition is generally accepted, used by EViews and accordingly supported by a large set of ready-to-use code.
I do not intend to discuss this definition with passengers who calculate mo for a deterministic set of points.
For qualified forum members: here is the definition. Its advantage is obvious - it is a ready-made code and one can disassociate oneself from the discussion about the existing differences in the interpretation of this term.
I gave you a specific model known to all. You don't know what random walk is? Classical random walk is a stationary process?
Dig in the direction of dispersion!
By the way, read your posts in another thread on this forum - clever! There's this example there too.... Have you forgotten?
So back to the topic.
Smoothing my balance with a straight line. Here we go:
Blue is the balance. His stats:
As they say, "well, wow."
We may not test for stationarity, but still in the struggle for the purity of the experiment.
The null hypothesis: The residue is not stationary (has a unit root).
Length in lags: 0 (automatic selection by SIC, maxlag=20)
.................................................t-Statistic.....Prob.*
Dickey-Fuller extended test statistics -1.763946 0.3986
Roughly speaking, probability that the residual is not stationary = 39%
Precisely speaking: at acceptable levels, it is impossible to reject the hypothesis that the residual is non-stationary.
The root mean square deviation is 126 pips!
Conclusion: The TS which produced this balance cannot be used. Its future is uncertain. The probability of slippage of 126 pips is 67%
Conclusion: The CU that produced this balance cannot be used. Its future is uncertain.