Forget random quotes - page 49
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that's shamanism...and the economic interpretation should also be in numbers and without any interpretation.... that's why it's mat statistics...get the numbers - stick them in the TS and look...not good - screw it...the model is not working...
why are you telling him? Don't! If he says there has to be a business case, let him do it.
Let's see how he gives the economic justification of e.g. Student's test....
this is shamanism...and economic interpretation should also be in numbers and without any interpretations.... that's why it's mat statistics...get the numbers - stick them in the TS and look...not good - screw it...the model is not working...
I suggest to the topicstarter to get the discussion back on track. It has been stated that trends are made by insiders. Is there any evidence to support this claim? I would like to see formulas, calculations and examples connected to the general logic of reasoning.
So it's in the article I linked to. After all, criminal cases have gone, they have their own system of evidence.
If we're talking about my bell tower, I'm interested in insights in this way: there's an insight = deterministic trend. No insight = deterministic trend + stochastic. Maybe, of course, with insight the deterministic trend simply prevails and the stochastic trend can be neglected.
It is not only calculable, but very obligatory to calculate, I am so convinced. I, on the other hand, do the simple thing: I detrend the quote without getting into the type of trend. And if the market is driven by insight, then my approach is very correct, but if the market tends to be efficient, then my approach is questionable.
that's shamanism...and economic interpretation should also be in numbers and without any interpretation.... that's what mat statistics is for...get the numbers - stick them in the TS and look at them...not good - screw it...the model doesn't work...
Read books, but not overnight, or they will quickly put you to sleep.
Checking the numbers in statistics is the basics of statistics, in the first pages. The classic example with numbers called correlation.
So it's in the article I linked to. After all, criminal cases have gone, they have their own system of evidence.
If we're talking about my bell tower, I'm interested in insights in this way: there's an insight = deterministic trend. No insight = deterministic trend + stochastic. Maybe, of course, with insight the deterministic trend simply prevails and the stochastic trend can be neglected.
It is not only calculable, but very obligatory to calculate, I am so convinced. I, on the other hand, do the simple thing: I detrend the quote without getting into the type of trend. And if the market is driven by insight, then my approach is very correct, but if the market tends to be efficient, then my approach is questionable.
Detrending is throwing the baby out with the water))
So it's in the article I linked to. After all, criminal cases have gone, they have their own system of evidence.
I'm not talking about legal evidence, I'm talking about evidence of the presence of insider results on price data. Start with the definition of a detrended trend for a start. I would like to see how it differs from a stochastic trend. What would its statistical properties be different? Call upon the full power of econometrics. Is there a method to separate one trend from another?
Otherwise, you understand that the statement "I work with what I have, in the hope that it really is what I need" is, to say the least, also guessing by coffee grounds. If you don't know at least the basic unique properties of deterministic series, then how will you make money from them?
Detrending is throwing the baby out with the water))
No, this is the first stage of the analysis. If there is a deterministic component in the series, the statistics reacts only to it and everything else can be ignored.
After determining, we do the analysis further. The result in the form of TS, of course, includes the selected trend.
Read books, but not overnight, or they will quickly put you to sleep.
Checking the numbers in statistics is the basics of statistics, in the first pages. A classic example with numbers called correlation.
correlations are not the same as correlations...and to put it mildly, correlations are not a panacea...when reading books you need to understand what the methods are for and where they will work and where they will not.... and most importantly where they will work SO WELL as others... regardless of their complexity...
I'm not talking about legal evidence, I'm talking about evidence of the presence of insider results on price data. Start with the definition of a deterministic trend. I would like to see how it differs from a stochastic trend. What would its statistical properties be different? Call upon the full power of econometrics. Does it have methods that allow to separate one trend from another?
Why I do not know. Deterministic and stochastic trends are widely known facts having their own mathematical form...properties.... tests.... proofs etc.
And so, you understand, the statement "I work with what I have, in the hope that it still is what I need" is, to say the least, also reading the coffee grounds.
I cannot agree with it in principle. In all spheres of activity the mankind works only with a part of reduction, with the relative truth, i.e. all the mankind (and not only economists) in your terminology "guessing by coffee grounds".
I build a model which, like any model, picks out only some properties of the quotient. If it manages to capture some fundamental properties, the TS is stable, and if it is some specifics ......
If you don't know at least the basic unique properties of deterministic series, how will you capitalise on them?
Why don't I know? That's not what this is about.
Why I don't know. Deterministic and stochastic trends are widely known facts having their own mathematical form...properties.... tests.... proofs etc.