The regularities of price movements: Part 1. Price orientation - page 2

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M_Dimens:
We'll do it later. I'm thinking of redoing the triangle formalisation altogether, to make it softer, it's very rigid.
Now I am interested in the problem - where and where am I wrong? If I am wrong, there is no point in going further in this direction.
 
denis_orlov:

This is obvious even without experiments. Take the three poplars on ivyushchikha - small, small, smaller.
Which poplars are more "inside" or "outside"? Of course "inside"!
Because the outer ones are the big ones, and the big, long poplars... ugh, bars - obviously less statistically than the small, short ones. Long candles are less frequent. Short ones more often. _

The point is that the poplars stand in a certain order, or rather order in chaos, and not entirely at random. This order is not obvious to most traders. I'll try to draw it later.
 
AlexFF:

It would also be good to collect statistics on the size in pips of these triangles, and very well on the time (days) of their formation. I would suggest that fading triangles occur on the news.

We will gradually do that.
 
DmitriyN:
We will do that later. I am thinking of redoing the triangle formalisation in general, to make it softer, it is very rigid.
Now I am interested in the problem - where and where am I wrong? If I am wrong, there is no point in going further in this direction.

Why do you think you are wrong triangle pattern has been known for a long time and many traders like this configuration

you can also define a wedge pattern not necessarily with a full convergence

 
AlexFF: It would also be good to collect statistics on the size at points of these triangles
DmitriyN: We will gradually do so.

Not gradually, but first thing). It's not the first time you've compared just probabilities, or just ratios of values. Some triangles will be smaller, but they may have a very large ratio of the candlestick length "at the end of the triangle" to the candlestick length "at the beginning of the triangle". And accordingly it may turn out that the ratio of average sizes of fading and unfading triangles will be inversely proportional to frequencies of occurrence of such triangles.

P.S. And a minor remark - what triangles should the triangle of three identical candlesticks refer to, judging by the code in the second script, to "fading" triangles? Of course, the more bars in the triangle, the lower the probability of such an event. But this is a reason to think about clarifying the definitions.

 
GaryKa:

P.S. And a minor note - what triangles should the triangle of three identical candles refer to, judging by the code in the second script, to "fading". Of course, the more bars in the triangle, the lower the probability of such an event. But this is a reason to think about clarifying the definitions.

Yes, of course you are right. But, note and reverse events should be the same.

to M_Dimens: I am thinking of formalizing triangles. Formalized triangles should cover most of the price, not be rare events.

 

to denis_orlov: I have drawn, I apologise for my modest knowledge of Coreldrew:


 
DmitriyN:

Decided to move the posts to a separate thread...

1. It all started when I was rereading Williams' book and decided to check the share of interior bars on the chart. Then I decided to compare the portion of interior and exterior bars and, as the result, I detected the following pattern: the portion of interior bars is higher than the portion of exterior bars.

Let me remind you what interior and exterior bars are:

In the screenshot above: bar B for bar A is external and bar F for bar R is internal.

A simple script has been written for research in this area:

Example of the script result:

2. Then, following this logic, I decided to investigate the relationship of internal and external triangles. I called the internal triangles fading and the external triangles flaring.
For this purpose I wrote a simple script:

The above script analysed triangles of size six (6) bars. In this script a very simple way of calculating calculation error has been added.

An example of the result of the script:

Let me remind you what are fading and flaring triangles. Example of a fading triangle (1) and a flaring triangle (2):

1.) 2).

 

I think you're on the right track.

I think that you should choose any pattern as an object of study and collect statistics on it, describing its types and categories.

I think you're on the right track.

 
I find the terms "outside" and "inside" bars unnecessary at all: they are simply fluctuations of different amplitudes. And there are fewer so-called "outside" bars than "inside" bars just because there are fewer fluctuations of greater amplitude in the market. Thus, you are simply looking for statistics of fluctuations of different magnitudes. As for candlestick patterns, such as the absorption of 2 candles, they are not permanent patterns (we have repeatedly checked this when developing our automatic analytics systems), so they cannot be trading signals.
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