The regularities of price movements: Part 1. Price orientation - page 4
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to FAQ:
Yes, I got it, it is the situation from which I try to look at the market. One thing is rumour and conjecture and another thing is mathematical confirmation of them, it's a higher level.
Let's see, maybe someone who knows mathematics will refute my conjectures, but so far I have not found any.
to poruchik:
Yes, I messed up a bit with the common terminology, but the main thing is to make sense.
to Avals:
Your post got me thinking that it is possible to use several bars as a big bar (external) in research, e.g. 2, 3, etc.
I'll give it a try and see what happens.
To TheXpert:
I will try to take into account the need for checking in the future. Thank you for pointing this out. I'm just beginning to learn this language, so it's hard for me to consider everything at once.
In the meantime, I erased the old story, since it was full of holes and uploaded the whole story again.
It's an interesting pattern. But how does it help us in trading? If we were to gather statistics on price movements after fading triangles, a system would be born.
Probably not wrong, just as Clausius and Thomson were not wrong when they formulated the second beginning of thermodynamics. Simply put, if we consider a quote not as an abstract random process, but as a reflection of some physical reality, then we must assume that the arrow of time is intrinsic to it. This means that the characteristics in different directions are bound to differ at least somewhat.
It's an interesting pattern. But how does it help us in trading? If we were to collect statistics of price movements after fading triangles then a system would be born.
At least it substantiates that you cannot use history before the test one for forwards.
DmitriyN:
And, what do you think will come out of this? Will the ratio be close to one?
It won't work. And the volatility should be taken into account somehow.
The normal way is to run it on history the other way. But I've looked - your conditions are symmetrical, so it's interesting.
It's an interesting pattern. But how does it help us in trading? If we were to gather statistics on price movements after fading triangles, a system would be born.
Awareness is also important, a small brick in understanding the market.
There is no system yet. There is an old method, a well-known one - triangle trading. Everyone knows it, but it is not formalised.
Awareness is also important, a small brick in understanding the market.
There is no system yet. There is an old method known to all - triangle trading. Everyone knows it, but it is not formalized.
Awareness is also important, a small brick in understanding the market.
I know two systems. One is based on trading inside the triangle, on reflections from its sides. The other one, more common, is based on breaching its sides and trading in the direction of the breach. Which system are you talking about?
By the way, I read somewhere a long time ago this rationale for fading triangles. When the first swing (high, low) appears, players start to bet on the reflection of the future price from these highs and lows. And they do it with a certain reserve. That is, they place orders on price reflection from 10% and 90% of levels of the new channel, for example. As a result, the price turns at 10% and 90% levels instead of reaching 0% and 100% levels. As a result the channel becomes narrower. New orders are placed for reflection of 10% and 90% levels of the new channel and so on. We obtain a triangle.
On the subject of fading after a disturbance. The freshest example. There was a rumour that the banks had agreed to act in concert against the crisis. There was a shock - you should have seen almost all the more or less interesting shares go up. Then we gradually realised that it was just a rumour. The result is this.
This is how the market faded the other day, which was not prevented by the night (which is understandable).
On the other hand, it does not look so good.
Regarding the fading after the perturbation. The freshest example.
The other day the market was decaying, and the night was not an obstacle for it (which is understandable).
On the other day it does not look so nice.
And note that the triangle was falsely punched to the upside first. The green technicians must have rushed in and started buying. Then the new trend has not materialized and they began to quickly close their losing positions, moving the price down. Then mature technicians with a lot of money started buying, and a new trend started. Although you can create any explanation for this price movement. The important thing is to know the statistics of different possibilities after the triangle ends.
It's an interesting pattern. But how does it help us in trading? If we were to gather statistics on price movements after fading triangles, a system would be born.