Recognise changes in the "behaviour" of a financial time series (Trading on the news) - page 8

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faa1947:

Chewing the chew.

There is a notion of oversold/oversold which fits well with notions of fractal market structure. The concepts of overbought/oversold are qualitative concepts and the main characteristic is the market volatility in this zone in the sense that the movement often starts from the arrival of small, insignificant news (the flap of a butterfly's wing). Bounce/breakout strategies are based on these zones. I haven't heard of them being successful.

- Do you see a gopher? And I don't see one, but I do!

In faa1947's opinion this breakout strategy is a waste of time, because it does not follow econometric principles and does not contain complex numerical formulas. And I'm the fool who trades it! The multi-year period of non-optimization sampling, hundreds of trades and mathematical expectation as big as a fat cow, is just a delusion! There are no breakout strategies and there cannot be one - the immutable law faa1947!

 
C-4:

- Do you see a gopher? And I don't see one, but I do!

In faa1947's opinion this breakout strategy is a waste of time, because it does not follow econometric principles and does not contain complex numerical formulas. And I'm the fool who trades it! The multi-year period of non-optimization sampling, hundreds of trades and mathematical expectation as big as a fat cow, is just a delusion! There are no breakout strategies, and there cannot be one - the immutable law faa1947!

That's kind of mean.

Attributed what I didn't write that I didn't: just didn't hear, now I'll write what I did hear. Calm down. Read econometrics, it will be the best soporific for you.

 
faa1947:

That's kind of mean.

You wrote down what you didn't write that you didn't: I just didn't hear it, now I'll write down what I did hear. Calm down. Read econometrics, it's the best sleeping pill.

Already read... thought a lot... cried in the night:) No really, why would you want to be so cavalier about trashing TA if you don't understand it? Take two mashups as an example. Run some company stock on the diaries - there's more than a 50% chance of success. There are stocks (and there are many) on which a simple dash has worked for decades (from the 70's to the present day). Until the late 80s, a portfolio of mash-ups on 30 stocks in the Dow was tearing up in general. Now the market has become more complex, but there are still not a few instruments, on which the moving average shows stable results year after year. So the question is, if TA is a tambourine dance and econometrics is an exact scientific approach, then why does TA show positive results and econometrics does not?
 
C-4:

- Do you see a gopher? And I don't see one, but I do!

In faa1947's opinion this breakout strategy is a waste of time, because it does not follow econometric principles and does not contain complex numerical formulas. And I'm the fool who trades it! The multi-year period of non-optimization sampling, hundreds of trades and mathematical expectation as big as a fat cow, is just a delusion! There are no breakout strategies and there cannot be one - the immutable law faa1947!


Results from WealthLab?
 
gpwr:

Results from WealthLab?

Yes.
 
C-4:

Yes.

Does it work for you without malfunctioning? It's always breaking down for me. Unable to trade automatically.
 
C-4:

then why does TA show positive results but econometrics does not?

Where do you get your information from?

Why do you allow yourself to discuss what you do not know by your own admission?

Why are you unapologetically trashing TA if you don't understand it?

What makes you think I don't understand TA? For me, giving up TA is a deliberate move and very costly in terms of time (almost 2 years) and money in the form of lost profits.

 
faa1947:

Why do you allow yourself to discuss what you don't know by your own admission?

What makes you think I don't understand TA? For me, giving up TA is a very conscious step and very expensive in terms of time (almost 2 years) and money in the form of lost profits.


You yourself have written about your own failures, that any system you have developed is starting to "go stale". You are the only econometrician that I know, and judging by the range of problems that econometric methods encounter (you yourself have described it perfectly) one can conclude that this science is of little practical use. I don't want to start holy wars, it's just strange that in two years you haven't found a single elementary TA strategy, which would more or less steadily make money. Needless to say, even the moving average manages to make money. Even "buy and hold" with a volatility index hedge shows excellent returns for medium and long term investors. Maybe you've been looking in the wrong place?
 
gpwr:

Does it work for you without failure? It's always breaking down for me. It is impossible to trade automatically.

WealthLab cannot be used for real trading - it's too glitchy. I use it only for testing systems and research. For real trading it's better to use Stock#.
 
C-4:

WealthLab cannot be used for real trading - it is too glitchy. I use it only for system testing and research. For real trading it's better to use Stock#.

Are there any practical results in Stock#? Can I have a look at them?
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