Recognise changes in the "behaviour" of a financial time series (Trading on the news) - page 7

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faa1947:
Thank you. That's better :)
 
faa1947:

The TS should be able to follow the news. Testing the TS (which is possible on artificial data) should include two behaviours: the news - change of the quote and return to the line of the previous movement. The news - change of the quote and movement on the new line.

Exactly the same way the TS should handle gaps. Strange coincidence :)
 
My explanation for the reaction to news is simple. The market reacts to news when there is an injection of volume disguised as news, which changes the volatility but has no effect on the target that price should reach.
 

in short the point is above .... i assume that there are accounts (TP) with volumes higher than you could imagine, to these accounts they connect accounts (ordinary traders) as to a PAMM account. the moment news arrives, the person (TP) reads the news.... he does not like it...... or likes it (not the point)

1. this person (TR) opens a deal with an incredible number of lots - against the news, and the mass effect (ordinary traders) shows a sharp jump in volumes on all terminals attached to the account...... resulting in 2 figures down or figure up....

2. or "no news let me see what the indicators are whispering overbought aha sal wait for the right moment and enter...... the result see p.1......


not an advert. just an option to consider. that's how you kill trades

 
Things are actually both simpler and more complicated, so to speak. Negative news (let's put it this way) really provokes the bears and positive news provokes the bulls (or vice versa, whatever). And everything would be chick-chick if it weren't for the market phase. But not the phase everyone is talking about on every corner. Everybody used to think that the phase is bulls and the phase is bearish. But it's not like that. There really are two phases. I would call them "direct" and "reverse". During the direct phase, the volumes flowing upwards move the market upwards, the volumes flowing downwards move the price downwards. But in the reverse phase... it's clear now, isn't it? Paradoxically, everything reverses. That's why I think the news (identical) acts differently too. Gee... Only that proverbial phase remains to be counted :)
 

Chewing the chew.

There is a notion of oversold/oversold which fits well with notions of fractal market structure. The concepts of overbought/oversold are qualitative concepts and the main characteristic is the market volatility in this zone in the sense that the movement often starts from the arrival of small, insignificant news (the flap of a butterfly's wing). Bounce/breakout strategies are based on these zones. I have not heard of them being successful.

 
There are several nicknames on the Russian-speaking internet who have been very successful (in my opinion) in using breakout strategies. Plus, there are a few characters who have made a fortune trading on the news. By the way, none of them use complicated maths. And yes, this is the stock market.
 
HideYourRichess:
On the russophone Internet there are a few nicknames that have been very successful (in my opinion) in using breakthrough strategies. Plus, there are several characters who have made a fortune trading on the news. By the way, none of them use complicated maths. And yes, this is the stock market.

About half a year before RAO EU's demise I was trading its shares quite successfully overbought/oversold by indicators without any mathematics. About two months before its demise, I noticed that the last straw, which overwhelms the unstable equilibrium, was another Chubais speech, as if he had seen my super-secret charts.

Since then I don't trade the news, because Chubais is everywhere and it's very risky to deal with them. Although, thanks to Chubais I jumped off this tram just in time.

 
You have a completely different concept of trading the news, judging by your description.
 
HideYourRichess:
That's not the concept of news trading at all, judging by your description.

It's an old case, just remembered about Chubais, should be sent to "Humour".

But seriously, a waste of time as with all TA.

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