Is any prediction doomed? - page 30
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I don't understand. Why can't it be kept secret for long? Making money doesn't have to be accompanied by market disruption. And not all people are greedy, I, for example, do not need much, I have enough.
Why can't you keep a secret for long?
1. If you think of something, others will think of it too. It is a question of completeness, quantity and the way the information is processed.
2. You cannot discreetly buy or sell. By analysing their losses, people will improve their strategies.
1. If you think of something, others will think of it too. It is a question of completeness, quantity and the way the information is processed.
2. You cannot discreetly buy or sell. By analyzing their losses, people will improve their strategies.
1. The question is exactly that. This is very surprising to me, and while I am sure that my solution is far from the only one, most are unable to resolve the issue, it is a fact.
2. How much do I have to buy or sell in forex for it to become noticeable? I don't have that much, and I don't need to.
There is just no limit to "enough". Don't try to convince yourself that you will stop at this point.
yosuf, you sometimes surprise me with your statements. Believe me, I respect people with degrees. And though I myself have only a modest bachelor's degree in technical sciences and it's not like me to argue with a candidate, but I'll still take the nerve. I myself would gladly do science instead of forex bullshit, if science is not in deep shit in Russia. I couldn't agree more that there is no such thing as "enough" for a normal person. It doesn't exist for the modern "consumer" economy, but I don't belong to it. And it doesn't have long to live, I suspect a year or so. Think about it.
yosuf, you sometimes surprise me with your statements. Believe me, I respect people with academic degrees. And while I myself have only a modest Bachelor's degree in Technical Sciences and it's not my place to argue with a PhD, but I'll still take the nerve. I myself would gladly do science instead of forex bullshit, if science is not in deep shit in Russia. I couldn't agree more that there is no such thing as "enough" for a normal person. It doesn't exist for the modern "consumer" economy, but I don't belong to it. And it doesn't have long to live, I suspect a year or so. Think about it.
If you haven't found one yourself, it doesn't mean that no one else has.
What you have posted on the forum in the last six months is still too primitive to call it serious research: You demonstrate an overly mechanistic approach to the market.
... Sometimes I ask myself: is it possible to predict the trajectory of a chased car? Isn't this situation similar to the market when chasing a price?
... Sometimes I ask myself: is it possible to predict the trajectory of a chased car? Isn't this situation similar to the market, where we chase the price?
That's how you get to the point where you have to build a tracking system... - as I've said many times, if you remember...
But that's where the difficulties come in, of a different nature... And that's where predictors work. But it's a very broad topic, both in depth and breadth...
That's how you get to the point where you have to build a tracking system... - as I've said many times, if you remember...
But that's where the difficulties arise, of a different nature... And that's where predictors work. But it's a very broad topic, both in depth and breadth...
I think that since for centuries they could not find, even outline, a circle of regularities in the financial markets, it means that globally it does not exist. The market is too perfect to allow anyone to unravel its patterns. Rather, we are only allowed to look for possible market errors and call them "patterns" as we understand them. The concepts of market and regularity are incompatible, otherwise there would be no market. Apparently, we can only talk about trends, probably in a short-term context. I sometimes ask myself: is it possible to predict the trajectory of a chased car? Isn't this situation similar to the market when chasing a price?
The mistake of "academic" market research is to look for patterns (stable cause-effect relationships) in some absolute sense. Well, like knowing the acceleration of free fall. It is known from school that a body will fall down with a certain acceleration, everywhere and always. People think that this should be the market's regularity, always and everywhere(grail in traders' terminology), but it doesn't and can't be so in the market. At the market the regularities are "temporary", but they are also regularities, because they are cause-and-effect ones. This is the first point. Second, there is an error in the choice of market indicators which are investigated. The situation is about the same as if in a zoo they tried to determine the health of an elephant by the diameter of its trunk. In the case of our rams, for example. The price movement "up" is a consequence, there may be different reasons, sometimes directly opposite. Right now the price is moving "up" because people are buying to sell later at a higher price. And at the other moment the price moves "up", because people buy short to sell cheaper. Of course, this example is very rough, and only an illustration of how in the market it is not easy to determine the real intentions of the crowd (price movement). Just in case, the price doesn't move on its own, it is moved by people. People who are so different individually become boringly similar in the crowd. All causes in the market are the actions of the crowd, and the price is only a consequence.
Here is another example, close to mathematics. Suppose the result of adding two numbers is 10. We had a cause, in the form of addition of two numbers, and an effect of 10. The question is, determine which numbers added up. The problem is, in general, unsolvable. But that's exactly what numerologists try to do in the tester.
Or here's another one. We know from mathematics that 2-1=1. And we think it is always true. In the market, two small traders willing to buy and one big trader willing to sell can result in 0, or even an unimaginable negative number. :)