Is any prediction doomed? - page 12
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Everything is clear with the definitions. This is not a TA, it is clear to the whole world what "prediction" is and there is no need to invent anything.
What is not clear is the separation and contrast between "predicting" and "finding patterns". What can forecasting be based on but found patterns?
Why do we need the identified patterns if it is impossible to make a price trend forecast based on them?
The division is very legitimate, usually the forecasting is done by the plumers, and few people look for real patterns. It would seem simple, find a good pattern where there are causes and effects of events, and use it. Do not predict - use.
In fact, all this has already been said twice, if understanding is not achieved - there is no point in pounding water in a bucket.
The division is very legitimate, usually predictions are made by plumers and few people look for real patterns. It would seem simple, find a good pattern where there are causes and effects of events, and use it. Do not predict - use.
Actually, all this has already been said twice, if understanding is not achieved - there is no point in pounding water in a bucket.
I already wrote in same "sign" thread - if you open position with any TS (unless signals on entry are given by random number generator), then you already PREVENT THAT PRICE FOR A TIME (or after some time) will move in necessary direction for you.
And the fact that you think that you do not predict, does not mean that you do not.
You have found a pattern with causes and effects, so what? If yes - you build your TS on the basis of this pattern. If not - why bother with it? What for and how do you use it?
How can you use the price trend if it does not allow you to predict the price dynamics? How? What for?
"Do not predict - use" ???????????????? How? Why??????
I will give a pattern with cause and effect - the trading sessions on the FTSE 100 stock indicator start and end at the same time on normal (non holiday) days. This is a firm pattern with clear cause and effect. But it does not allow any predictions to be made about the performance of this indicator.
How and what can this be used for?
I already wrote in the same "iconic" thread - if you open a position with any TS (unless the input signals are sent by a random number generator), then you already PREVIOUSLY predict that the price will move in the right direction for you for some time (or some time later).
And the fact that you think that you do not predict, does not mean that you do not.
You have found a pattern with cause and effect and what? If yes - you build your TS on the basis of this pattern. If not - why bother with it? What for and how do you use it?
How can you use the price trend if it does not allow you to predict the price dynamics? How? What for?
"Do not predict - use" ???????????????? How? Why??????
"Don't predict - use" - maybe it means "buy the Grail for the money" and don't worry about it. Just cut the dough.
The question here is the meaning of the word "prediction". If it is taken synonymously with prediction, then it is clearly doomed. But if we see prediction as a probabilistic assessment, then it is a very serious and forward-looking approach.
Forecasting is always and everywhere a probabilistic assessment.
Here is the "last" word)
I have come to the conclusion that predicting/exposing a pattern on a single instrument is a fiction/self-deception, especially if based on analysis of previous data.
Predicting the behaviour of multiple instruments also lacks sufficient justification. As ALL pairs move with correlation, if at all, comparable to the level of noise.
Conclusion: trade only arbitrage situations...
My advice to you: don't look for "weights", don't count on the influence of pairs on each other, just find a couple or three overbought ones and trade them relative to the oversold ones... in a crowd, even "all against all" and that's it!!!!
There's the question of the meaning of the word "prediction". If you take it as a synonym for prediction, then it's definitely doomed. But if one sees prediction as a probabilistic assessment, then it is a very serious and forward-looking approach.
That's about right, except that probabilistic estimates have nothing to do with it. Under non-stationarity, they are meaningless. Numerosity.
Actually, you don't have to go far; it is enough to carefully read what successful traders tell, for example in Schwager's book. (If you do not know anything about the market, you cannot make any comments or ask any questions. However, where are they and where are the local experts on terrain. Worth thinking about. :)
I will give a pattern with cause and effect - the trading sessions on the FTSE 100 stock indicator start and end at the same time on normal (non holiday) days. This is a firm pattern with clear cause and effect. But it does not allow any predictions to be made about the performance of this indicator.
How and what can this be used for?