[Archive!] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 6: August 2011) - page 152
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So it's a good turkey. You should take it.
4450 is still on the market.
How far are you going?
Really? I want 3,950. I wrote about it this morning.
at 4,450 sold more
Really? I want 3950. I wrote about it this morning.
Thanks, I'll buy ;)
well, as they say, come spring, you'll see who's where .........
Margaret, when will the Swiss stop intervening? It is already asking for a reversal.
According to the newspaper SonntagsZeitung, the government and the Swiss central bank are intensively discussing the possibility of targeting the exchange rate in order to curb excessive currency appreciation. The newspaper said that the Swiss National Bank could set a target value for the franc very soon - an action plan could be adopted on the 17th of August. The monetary authorities of the country declined to comment on such rumours.
Analysts at BNP Paribas are rather sceptical about the possibility of pegging the franc to the euro. In their opinion, if there are no official signals on Wednesday, franc will continue to strengthen. Specialists emphasize that recent inflows into the franc are not speculative; they are "real money". As a result, it will be very difficult to reverse the upward trend till there is no fundamental solution to the Eurozone debt problems, which investors are running away from in Switzerland.
Goldman Sachs strategists see no need to peg the franc to the euro. In their view, a managed float of the franc to send the EUR/CHF exchange rate higher would be much more effective. By intervening in the currency and announcing that the purchased European currency will be invested in Spanish and Italian bonds, the Swiss government will achieve two goals at once - it will stop the rise of the franc and help reduce the risk premium on European debt.
Swissquote economists believe that what is happening now is a form of verbal intervention and that the market is overestimating the likelihood of hard target exchange rate levels. From their point of view, a complete pegging of the franc to the euro looks unlikely, whereas the likelihood of Switzerland making a vague promise to regulate the exchange rate is quite high. It must also be taken into account that the franc is still overvalued, so in order to peg it to the euro, the SNB would first have to bring it down significantly to lower levels, which would be costly for the central bank. Furthermore, for a peg to work, the SNB would have to show an unwavering commitment to containing the franc. At the same time, there are numerous examples of central banks that have given up under the pressure of the market.
Analysts at Schneider Foreign Exchange believe the SNB is "going up against a hurricane", Bloomberg news agency reported. UBS notes that Swiss authorities should be prepared to spend several hundred billion francs on interventions.
Analysts at BNP Paribas are rather sceptical about the possibility of pegging the franc to the euro. From their point of view, if there are no official signals on Wednesday, the franc will continue to strengthen. Experts emphasize that recent inflows into the franc are not speculative; they are "real money" and as a result, it will be very difficult to reverse the uptrend unless there is a fundamental solution to the Eurozone debt problems, which investors are running away from in Switzerland.
And why exactly Wednesday, should there be a leak before August 17? Can they just draw down money for interventions or do they like the states need to raise the public debt bar?
Why should there be a leak before August 17? Can they just draw down money for interventions, or do they like the states need to raise the debt ceiling?
Don't read all this as it is all bullshit.
You shouldn't read all this because it's all bullshit.
I have made good money on this rubbish, just when rumours about interventions started circulating - I reopened upwards, although everybody thought that the dollar-franc had to stand firmly downwards ;-)
The same goes for gold...
That would be nice, I have two sells at 1.4060.
I'm now waiting for a wolf down (pending) -- so far so good ;-)