FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Episode 5: July 2011) - page 94
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1.3840 pivot point (80% probability)
Margaret, when is the vote on the size of US external debt?
The exact date is not yet known.
As for the rating agencies:
Germany and the UN have put forward a proposal to ban the rating agencies.
In Brussels, the downgrading of Portuguese securities by Moody's is considered nothing more than financial vandalism and a manifestation of national chauvinism. Southern Europe is being subjected to a deliberate financial understatement by the "Anglo-Saxon" agencies.
"With all due respect to these rating agencies, we do know the situation in Portugal a little better. And our results are more truthful," said EC president José Manuel Barroso.
He suggests that the agency's actions are being directed from abroad, deliberately understating the figures in Europe and bringing them to 'rubbish' levels.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble is of the same opinion. "The oligopoly of the rating agencies must be broken," he says.
Radical measures are proposed by Heiner Flassbeck, head of the UN Conference on Trade and Development. He demands that the agencies be disbanded before they do more damage or at least bar them from making forecasts on some nations.
Moody's prognosis was called "a blow to the solar plexus" by the Portuguese prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho, while the Greek foreign minister considers rating forecasts in the debt crisis hour to be madness.
It should be noted that the EU is set to make radical changes to the system for determining credit ratings.
As for the rating agencies:
Germany and the UN have put forward a proposal to ban rating agencies.
That's right, a bunch of loafers pass off their fears as ratings, while the rest of the crowd listen to them like puppets. Crazy...
Tomorrow I might get a shot at Bolivia saying "I don't think this country will be able to pay its bonds". And that's it, tomorrow Bolivia is off the map)
Gold seems to want to go South(1430), if it breaks intermediate support (1512), it should drop, and so should the Euro, who thinks?
US regulators have closed three more small US banks, bringing the total number of closed banks in 2011 to 51, Reuters reports.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Commission said it closed First Chicago Bank & Trust of Chicago in Illinois with $960 million in assets, Colorado Capital Bank of Castle Rock in Colorado with $717.5 million in assets and Signature Bank of Windsor, also in Colorado. The latter had $67 million in assets.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Commission expects the total number of banks closed in 2011 to be less than in previous years.
Recall that in 2010 the US regulators closed 157 US banks because of troubled loans and the effects of the global economic crisis.
In February this year, the Fed, fearing a second wave of recession, said that major U.S. banks must again stress tests of capital adequacy.
According to a study by the Federal Bank of Cleveland, a 3% difference between yields on 3-month and 10-year Tregers means that the US economy will only grow by 1.1% in the year to June 2012, less than half of the official Fed forecast.
Given the extremely weak US employment data for June, there is an increased likelihood that the United States central bank will keep interest rates at record lows of 0-0.25%. The cost of financing the country has been in this range since December 2008 and will probably remain there for the longest period of time since World War II.
In February futures for the Fed's key rate indicated a 51% probability of an increase. This percentage fell to 39% in April and is now only 10%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell from 3.77% in February to 3.03% in early July. Barclays strategists note that 10-year bond yields around 3% reflect expectations that US parliamentarians will reach an agreement before August 2 to increase the public debt ceiling, but in exchange commit the government to significant spending cuts, which will negatively impact US economic growth in the short term.
Gold seems to want to go South(1430), if it breaks intermediate support (1512), it should drop, and so should the Euro, who thinks?
Here, you show it ready...
My compliments to you. Yesterday, your prediction kept me from buying
1.3840 pivot point (80% probability)
How, deep I don't know, but that we will still go down, that's for sure....))) Then up, just like you wanted...)))