FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Episode 5: July 2011) - page 148
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Analysts at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. expect the US dollar to weaken. In their view, the U.S. currency will be negatively affected by ongoing disputes between the Congress and the country's government over raising the public debt ceiling and reducing the budget deficit, given that these issues are to be resolved by August 2.
Experts note that over the past few years major central banks, especially Asian ones, have sought to diversify their foreign exchange reserves with a reduced share of dollar assets. According to the bank, the US dollar is gradually losing its status as the world's main reserve currency. This pressure is now being compounded by negative factors due to the enormous level of public debt in the United States. Another reason for the dollar's weakening is the possibility of additional monetary stimulus measures in the country, which was announced yesterday by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who was concerned about the prospects of slowing growth of the national economy.
As a result, Sumitomo economists are advising traders not to buy the US dollar. Analysts believe that they may have to change their forecast for the pair USD/JPY at the beginning of 2012 from 88 to 85 yen.
IMF data shows that the dollar share of global foreign exchange reserves fell to its lowest level since 1997 at 60.7% in the first quarter. In addition, Moody's Investors Service changed its outlook on the US credit rating to negative for the first time since 1995.
So the Americans have accepted the loss of their share of the reserves? I don't believe it!
It's going after the fund now, and after Beni's speech the fund first fell sharply and is now recovering little by little....
It's going after the fund now, and after Beni's speech the fund first fell sharply and is now recovering little by little....
Whose fund (American or European)? And who is "it" (dollar, aussie or euro)?
A refusal to raise the debt ceiling cannot be considered as a possible option. The head of the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, expressed this view in his speech to the US House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services.
At the same time the Fed Chairman cited the following arguments in defense of this point of view: refusal to raise the national debt ceiling would have a negative impact on the unemployment rate in the USA (which is already off the charts) due to its negative effect on the financial system and would have a direct impact on consumers. In general, Bernanke called refusing to raise the debt ceiling "suicidal" act, doomed to failure, reports Reuters.
According to Bernanke, a technical default would be detrimental to the United States and plunge the country into shock, the effect of which would spread not only to the national but also to the global economy. Confidence in U.S. treasury bonds is critical to the U.S. financial system, and a default on such securities would plunge it into chaos.
"The main consequence of such a move would be a loss of investor confidence in US government bonds as the most reliable and most liquid asset in the world," Bernanke concluded.
At the epicentre of the problems facing the US is the housing market. "Weakness in the housing market is one of the sources of the slow economic recovery. When the economy grows, the housing market strengthens, jobs increase and opportunities arise. We are not seeing any of that," the Fed chairman said.
He added, however, that the situation had fallen into a state of "vicious circle". "People don't want to buy homes because property prices are falling, and property prices are falling because people don't want to buy homes," Bernanke summed up.
B.Bernanke reiterated what was said the day before, namely, that the U.S. Central Bank is ready to take steps to further ease monetary policy if the U.S. economy continues to grow at a slower pace and inflation risks subside. At the same time, the Federal Reserve hinted that one of the possible options is to resume buying securities such as US Treasuries, effectively a third round of "quantitative easing" (QE3).
On the other hand, the eu could be in a flat position waiting for the publication of the stress tests and whether Greece will pay the 2.4 billion euro debt tomorrow
A nefarious idea: now the Americans will promise to lend money to Greece and they won't)))
A nefarious idea: now the Americans will promise to lend money to Greece and they won't)))
I wrote my first program (to draw on the monitor using cursor arrows) in 1988, and I started studying Computer Science in 1990, and by profession I am an ACS technician
A refusal to raise the debt ceiling cannot be considered as a possible option. The head of the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, expressed this view in his speech to the US House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services.
At the same time the Fed Chairman cited the following arguments in defense of this point of view: refusal to raise the national debt ceiling would have a negative impact on the unemployment rate in the USA (which is already off the charts) due to its negative effect on the financial system and would have a direct impact on consumers. In general, Bernanke called refusing to raise the debt ceiling "suicidal" act, doomed to failure, reports Reuters.
According to Bernanke, a technical default would be detrimental to the United States and plunge the country into shock, the effect of which would spread not only to the national but also to the global economy. Confidence in U.S. treasury bonds is critical to the U.S. financial system, and a default on such securities would plunge it into chaos.
"The main consequence of such a move would be a loss of investor confidence in US government bonds as the most reliable and most liquid asset in the world," Bernanke concluded.
At the epicentre of the problems facing the US is the housing market. "Weakness in the housing market is one of the sources of the slow economic recovery. When the economy grows, the housing market strengthens, jobs increase and opportunities arise. We are not seeing any of that," the Fed chairman said.
He added, however, that the situation had fallen into a state of "vicious circle". "People don't want to buy houses because property prices are falling and property prices are falling because people don't want to buy houses," Bernanke summed up.
B.Bernanke reiterated what was said the day before, namely, that the U.S. Central Bank is ready to take steps to further ease monetary policy if the U.S. economy continues to grow at a slower pace and inflation risks subside. At the same time, the Federal Reserve hinted that one of the possible options is to resume buying securities such as US Treasuries, effectively a third round of "quantitative easing" (QE3).
I get it, they had such a good bite from the stimulus program that they want to continue it ))))