Any strategy works as long as only one investor knows about it - page 5
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Despite the topic-starter's excessive maximalism, we must admit that there is a reasonable grain in it. I would only formulate a different ratio:
Any simple profitable strategy will probably (though not necessarily) remain so as long as the amount of money invested in transactions under this strategy is incapable of causing a noticeable (easily computable) market response.
After that her days are numbered. Amen.
And what about exporters - importers?
Isn't the bulk of forex turnover an exchange of money between importers and exporters? Every country wants its currency to be cheaper than the opponent's. This affects exports and trade. Forex is not just a market for speculators, the number of speculators is growing.
Take Soros the speculator who made a billion on the pound, but no one wants to remember that he lost the same amount on the yen the next year after he earned on the pound.
I personally do not understand when someone says that if the technique is disclosed and everyone takes advantage of it, it stops working because of this, exports are not predictable so forex behaves like this, you can only speculate and the market will have a price.
Imho.
How interesting, your indicators show inputs.... And even unknown ones.
Well, let's look at how such a situation occurs in the current market. What situation? The situation is that every trading client has a MACD indicator. Well, people are trading on the MACD. And the market seems to react to these operations.
EURUSD 5 min MACD indicator with standard values of 12, 26, 9:
Green bar is drawn after crossing of histogram and signal line. That is, on the next bar preceded by 2 conditions:
1. On the first bar the histogram is higher than the signal one.
2. On the second bar the histogram is lower than the signal one.
Yellow - reverse crossover.
Thus, at approximately the time when the first bar was being formed, the histogram and the signal line were crossed.
It is very clear only on 5-minute and hourly charts. On other timeframes it is not very clear.
Every trading terminal has a Moving Average indicator, so what? I make money on it.
"Hanging piss - start again..."
No! I'm not even going to start again - it's fucking sick. TA doesn't work because everyone knows about it. Yes, yes. Newton's laws are also known and - alas - have run out! ))) And the young man can't put the right marks in the USE, because all the solutions are not even commonplace, but so - the background.
The multiplication table is also known. But how good it is to gab - it is a passed phase and chisel in a pub on the occasion.
In short, an excuse for retards. // something I'm being politically correct today.
Something works or "doesn't" only because it applies in specific circumstances. // clearly I mean the fucking context.
The same Newton's laws would not be correct under certain circumstances, but nevertheless, in other circumstances, they are.
NOTHING has changed since the creation of the market. The new generations of traders, IMMEDIATELY enriched with derivative knowledge of the market and their, due to their age, stupidity, will make the same mistakes and utter the same nonsense.
The MASD works just as well now as it did THEN. It's just that the TEs were as stupid then as the current THISs. I clearly mean the majority. // what, you can't run a MACD tester on the old quotes? - Same result.
It is the lot of the few to make money. The rest are whining.
===
Right. And 99.(9)% don't understand that TA is an analysis, not a predictor. But I don't have the strength to fight it.
In other words.
Do you think that your methods against Kostya Saprykin 's self-organising (okay, I didn't say synergetic!)) system can change the system?
Being sane, they can. But, given the fract. nature of the phenomenon, on its "-1" minuscule fractal. It - the System - will always be higher.
Even if you are market makers. Even if you're the world's pr-inventor. Even - gosh, shall I say it? - if you're the world's Judeo-Masonic financial cabal!
Relax. Everything will be as nature intended - not you. Your lot is to follow those prescriptions more or less successfully (here it is TA).
Demiurgeons, my ass...
By this logic, investor1 and investor2 are the smart ones and the rest are the "crowd". Somehow, it doesn't make much sense...
I think so. If most sell, prices go down; if most buy, prices go up. The conclusion is that the more investors sell at the same time, the more likely it is that prices will actually go down.
That's what the vast majority of people think.
In fact, it is quite the opposite.
Let me explain: as long as a trader is out of position , he is a nobody for the market, i.e., neither a "bull" nor a "bear". As soon as the trader bought, he immediately becomes a BULL for the market. But not a "bull", as most homegrown traders have believed for years. Why a bear? Because he is now obliged, sooner or later, to sell the purchased volume. The same refers to sellers who are bulls to the market as soon as they mark their existence by selling something and, correspondingly, take an obligation to someday, independently or forcefully, buy this "something".
Thus, if there are more bears (basically those who bought) then the price goes down, but if there are more bulls (basically those who sold) then the price goes up. Hence the statistic - roughly 90% of traders are almost always screwed. Otherwise there would not be enough money for all, despite the consistency of conversion banking and other non-speculative operations. And the task of the trader is precisely to be able to determine when there are fewer buyers in the market to buy and make a profit, or fewer sellers to sell for the same purpose.
Conclusion: the author is right that the effectiveness of a trading strategy is inversely proportional to its popularity.
Question to the moderators - on what grounds have I been banned from the forum? What clauses of the rules have I violated? I wrote to the support, but there was no answer. I do not insult anyone, I do not offer products, raised a specific many interesting question - what is the problem!
Your post is very much a reference to your personal external resources. You have fallen into the spam category.