EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 3) - page 874
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The US administration has filed a lawsuit in Manhattan federal court seeking to recover $1bn from Germany's largest bank, Deutsche Bank AG, and its US mortgage unit MortgageIT Inc. (DFB) and its U.S. mortgage unit MortgageIT Inc. They are accused of mortgage fraud.
Deutsche Bank denied the charges. "We are reviewing a copy of the statement of claim we have just received. We believe the allegations against MortgageIT and Deutsche Bank are without merit and are determined to defend our position vigorously," a spokesman for the lender said.The US administration has filed a lawsuit in Manhattan federal court seeking to recover $1bn from Germany's largest bank, Deutsche Bank AG, and its US mortgage unit MortgageIT Inc. (DFB) and its U.S. mortgage unit MortgageIT Inc. They are accused of mortgage fraud.
Deutsche Bank denied the charges. "We are reviewing a copy of the statement of claim we have just received. We believe the allegations against MortgageIT and Deutsche Bank are without merit and are determined to defend our position vigorously," said a spokesman for the lender.The Americans have as always found a guilty party. Deutsche Bank AG with their mortgage fraud is to blame for the global financial crisis :))
I think we should sit on the fence until next week.... this week is not going to be any big deal...... we'll just keep wandering back and forth (on the eurik, I mean)...
So it's okay! The eureka's fine, too!
2011.05.04 10:05:17 *Lagarde: Strong euro makes raw materials cheaper - Bloomberg
2011.05.04 10:05:44 *Lagarde speaks out in favour of strong dollar - Bloomberg
HZ (who knows).
More seriously, I'm in the sell myself, I think it's real.
Perhaps that will be the case:
People, what are the chances of seeing 1.4800 again today without renewing the high at 1.4901?
The risk appetite situation has deteriorated considerably at the beginning of this week, but we have never seen any aggressive selling in EUR/USD, which certainly points to the strength of the Euro in the moment. In this regard, we can realistically see two further paths ahead. The first one means that it makes sense to monitor the limits of the EUR/USD price range 1.4770/1.4870, believing that a break out of this corridor will indicate the direction of further moves. The second one suppose that we wait for the ECB meeting on Thursday and Trichet's comments on monetary policy and economic situation, or for the release of the Non-farm payrolls report for April in the USA at 16.30 Moscow time on Friday, and then we will draw some conclusions of a fundamental nature. Basically both can coincide.
For now it should be admitted that EUR/USD trend is still ascending, and we haven't got any technical signal of its break-down yet. Therefore it is not excluded that the current consolidation in the Euro might eventually turn into a continuation pattern of the TA "flag".
At the same time the discussions regarding the next ECB chief continue to represent a turning point. One idea here is that the appointment of Mario Draghi may ultimately lead to greater volatility in the EUR/USD and thus may also represent a turning point in the medium-term development of the Euro. The crucial point here is the current negotiations between Germany and France on this matter, especially in the context of rumors that the agreement of the Germans to Draghi's candidacy would imply agreement with a weaker euro.
Regarding the risk appetite which has worsened over the last two days due to the record drop of oil prices and stock indices over the last two weeks, there are several key factors:
The Chinese central bank's interest rate decision on May 10 might be a turning point for some participants in the financial markets. The subject of monetary tightening in the Celestial Empire may unwittingly be interpreted as an excuse for profit taking in commodities assets or emerging markets again until then. In this case, the unexpected decision of the central bank of India on 3 May to increase the rate not by 0.25% but immediately by 0.5% adds more fuel to the fire. Whether markets and risk assets will be able to continue rising after 10th May is telling.
The employment statistics from the USA this Friday are perceived by some analysts (Non-farm payrolls - forecast 200k, previous value 230k; unemployment - forecast 8.8%, previous value 8.8%) as further evidence that the American economy is slowing down. Accordingly, the reaction of S&P500 and WTI to the possible release of somewhat lower than expected data will be indicative.
Let's try this....