Why is it that when TC becomes obvious to most market participants it stops working? - page 5

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Yurixx:

You'd think... the whole trader crowd is just a bunch of small change.

Sorry to barge in - isn't it?
 
tara:
Sorry to barge in - isn't it?
That's it!!!))
 
dimeon:

Someone said that only large TFs show the whole market, but that's bullshit! The whole market is visible only on tick charts ... But you need a monitor with a VERY wide width.

Remember the Bettera Expert Advisor, for example. With targets of 40-100 points all the calculations were made only on one-minute planes.

Although for such purposes trend watchers use periods from M30 to H4.

Why remember it, it's easier to run it in the tester... and you won't want to remember...
 
tara:
Sorry to barge in - isn't it?
The story about the crowd is made up by the crowd itself. If you made something up, does that mean the fantasy has to be real?
 
vasya_vasya:
The mob story, is invented by the mob itself. If you made something up, does that mean the fantasy has to be reality?

You are absolutely right. Ultimately, I think we are talking about the same thing...))

===
Absolutely - that's a bit of an exaggeration. Subjectively - how do I know about other people's cockroaches...

 
tara:
Sorry to barge in - isn't it?

Svinozavr:
That's it!!!))

A double question: what is a market then, if it opposes the crowd of traders? If we take the crowd out of the market, what will be left?
 
vasya_vasya:
The tale of the crowd, is invented by the crowd itself. If you make something up, does that mean the fantasy has to be reality?

The crowd rumour is not really a rumour, but a very specific collective delusion which has arisen as a consequence of the mathematical model of an efficient market. In this model, all market agents (i.e. the crowd of traders) have equal and instantaneous access to information, which is completely untrue. Another fundamental assumption of the model - price movement is the result of a huge number of small and independent influences of market agents. The result of this assumption is that price movement is a stochastic process to which the normal distribution applies. Everyone has already heard about this "applicability". Similarly, it is not difficult to understand that market agents are unequal. Crowd of traders is in fact a big pyramid at the bottom of which is really a crowd of "small potatoes", and at the top there is big capital. In between, of course, are bigger or smaller players. And which of all these agents invariably wins? I think you can guess at one time.

However, for things to be scripted, the crowd of small and even medium players really has to be completely stochastic, or even more accurately, chaotic. And for it to be so, it is very useful to have this collective delusion that there is nothing in the market apart from this crowd, and that this crowd is so big that it will eat up any organised movement. Which is actually nonsense. This crowd never runs ahead of the market, only behind it. Therefore, it is very easy and quick to get organised - after all, we are running after the money. If suddenly, an undoubtedly profitable TS is found and, moreover, it becomes public, the crowd of small and medium market players will turn from a crowd into a monolith. As a result, 1) the signals on the market, to which the TS was oriented, will disappear - because its character will cease to be random, 2) the total capital of the crowd will be comparable to the capitals of the top, that they (the top) does not need - it is easy to play against the crowd, and they already know how to do it, but it is risky to play against an equal or something like that. So, at least the top will change their strategy. Either of these aspects leads to the TS losing its profitability.

That's why there is no crowd and no market opposing each other. The crowd of all traders is the market. Confrontation exists only between parts of this aggregate crowd. And the market lives only until this confrontation represents a dynamic equilibrium. Therefore, if one of the parts gets organized (for example, as a result of mass usage of one TS) and becomes dominant, the market simply ends. But since its existence is necessary for the modern financial and economic system, it cannot end, and therefore it will simply change its character so as to restore the dynamic equilibrium. I.e. it will make this TS at least unprofitable.

 
Yura, I'll give you a substantive answer. Later, OK? Or skype you already did - there, but not now either.
 
At the interbank market frequently appear bids of huge volume, but it is bids for price, not for action, for example there is a buy at 1000000 lots, for example at 100.01, and everyone who wants can buy at this price, i.e. it is like a barrier that the chart would not jump up - but usually the market (a lot of traders) eat that bid without noticing. I.e., I think that all traders are mostly throwing the chart back and forth, otherwise it wouldn't be so fast.
 
The market is all about information and patterns. Where there are priorities for information or patterns, the TS does not stop working. We work in an environment where there is no monopoly. Even if someone has primary information or knowledge of patterns, they cannot keep it secret. Where you've been, what you've seen, you can tell them yourself. And then it gets to the operators, who start exploiting it, each in his own way. The resource is one, common, and it is not possible to develop it indefinitely. By their actions, they just create such noise that they cannot see the primary impact, though it is preserved. On each primary impact hangs a hundred strategies, each with a different capital, and in different directions. And behind this mishmash you can't make out anything.
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