EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 2) - page 122
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Anything above 1.2765 can be left off for now :)))
strangerr:
Ну, а чего мы будем сейчас воду в ступе толочь? Ждем неделю, смотрим, если евро падает - значит отчеты работают, если нет, то нет.
Sometimes it is useful. I'll make two points and see if you can comment on them.
The first consideration is that you have to use a long history to test it, and it has to include non-standard situations. You can't say that if there is a coincidence today, it will work six months from now. So it seems a bit frivolous to me to make decisions based on these numbers.
The second is more specific. The price is up, a bounce down is very likely, sellers of options have become more profitable, at the cost of lower risk. And irrespective of the amount of further downward movement they place more options. But that does not mean that all options will be bought and exercised, i.e. it does not mean that the currencies themselves will be traded. The dynamic on the short horizon is an increase in shorts (options, not currencies). Although potentially they could be realised and they could be real trades in currencies. And the longs were just bought on the upside, new options will not be placed until the price bounces back down. Could this be the explanation for the current chart?
Sometimes it is useful. I'll make two points and see if you can comment on them.
The first consideration is that you have to use a long history to test it, and it has to include non-standard situations. You can't say that if there is a coincidence today, it will work six months from now. So it seems a bit frivolous to me to make decisions based on these numbers.
The second is more specific. The price is up, a bounce down is very likely, sellers of options have become more profitable, at the cost of lower risk. And irrespective of the amount of further downward movement, they place more options. But that does not mean all options are bought and exercised. The dynamic on the short horizon is an increase in shorts. And the longs were simply bought and exercised on the upside, new options will not be placed until the price bounces back down. Could this be the explanation for the current chart?
We do not need to explain the table, we can see that the number of longs was significantly reduced and the number of shorts increased, it is a fait accompli and its reasons are not important.
But it is not the real currency buy/sell, is it? And it's also a month.
even if there is a 5% chance, it has to be taken into account.
But these are not real currency buys and sells, are they?
There are options, which are not deals, but an offer to buy a contract to make a trade. So they are not even computer money. They are potential deals. They may not be bought, and even if they are bought they may not be exercised.
Of all the options, only a fraction will be triggered and in which direction - it is not known. Even if there are several times as many shorts as longs, more real computer currency may end up being bought than sold.
Of all the options, only a fraction will work and in which direction is unknown. Even if there are several times more shorts than longs, in the end there may be morereal computer currency bought than sold.
super! i build my strategy on your theory of unknowns, but i will definitely trade on unknowns - maths is power!
And the computer shenanigans, please, go to the computer log.
IgorM:
You should be in Bali by now, you're getting richer and richer there, you've already made thirty quid :)))