EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 2) - page 102
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The train has started... Bon voyage!
As in the cartoon Let's be afraid together...
The train is running... Bon voyage!
it's still early....
waiting for the 3rd call,
it's not much to pay attention to... this kind of news is not news every day... there is a signal ahead... not on the fence...
pss.the indicator line may be downloaded to the csv ? for several years on n1... i'll pick 1 in 1 for sport...
i just didn't make it in time. a little later i got home, at 16:00 it was already another risk. About the discount, what's the point? You pick it up, then what's the point of believing in this indicator? My indicator is incomplete, sometimes I was falling down in tears, I was foolish, I saw and understood it all and I was able to program it all in Matcadet in 30-40 minutes, but I was not able to shift it to MQL, not because I was a bad programmer, I understood I would never be able to debug it in my life. I have been working on it for several months. You may laugh, but I was unable to check it in the tester, it's not correct, there is no input parameters, the only digit is history depth and that's all. It may just not start and I can only visually detect it, or I call it "explosion" - this effect is known to those who worked with Kalman, at some point, it explodes and may show for example euro/dollar rate 9.87. Visually it is easy to determine (just restart it), but to trace this time in the PBX I can not ...
I tried to do it here today, it's true it's a lot of notes... Things are simple, and almost everyone writes about them, but in different words, but with time, as you get more and more bumpy. you know, you read, it's written in all the books, everybody knows it, but you didn't believe it, you just didn't believe it could work, which is exactly what does work, and it makes no difference whether you work with charts or fibos, with ELIOT waves, with anything.... just if you start with faith, then you will always be in doubt, is it really so and will look for something more perfect (you can markup, you can a new indicator), until gradually, step by step, you go back to the beginning and you'll understand, every cell will understand that there is no other way, only this one. And then you BELIEVE, now you become a "true believer", but this way you have to go by yourself and you will believe not in the guru, not in the indicator but only in yourself, in your experience, skills, knowledge that you can't buy, you can't find.
I just didn't make it in time. I got home a little later, at 4:00 it was a different risk. What's the point of dropping it? You pick it up, then what's the point of believing in this indicator? My indicator is incomplete, sometimes I was falling down in tears, I was foolish, I saw and understood it all and I was able to program it all in Matcadet in 30-40 minutes, but I was not able to shift it to MQL, not because I was bad at programming, I understood I would never be able to debug it in my life. I have been working on it for several months. You may laugh, but I was unable to check it in the tester, it's not correct, there is no input parameters, the only digit is history depth and that's all. It may just not start and I can only visually detect it, or I call it "explosion" - this effect is known to those who worked with Kalman, at some point, it explodes and may show for example euro/dollar rate 9.87. Visually it is easy to determine (just restart it), but to trace this time in the PBX I can not ...
I tried to do it here today, it's true it's a lot of notes... Things are simple, and almost everyone writes about them, but in different words, but with time, as you get more and more bumpy. You realize you knew it all, you read, it's written in all the books, everyone knows it, but you didn't believe it, you just didn't believe it could work, which is exactly what does work, and it makes no difference whether you work with charts or fibos, with ELiOTA waves, with anything.... just if you start with faith, then you will always be in doubt, is it really so and will look for something more perfect (you can markup, you can a new indicator), until gradually, step by step, you get back to the beginning and you'll understand, every cell will understand that there is no other way, only this one. And after that, you BELIEVE, now you'll become a "true believer", but you have to go this way on your own and you will believe not in a guru, not in an indicator but only in yourself, in your experience, skills, knowledge that you can not buy, you can not find it
the main thing is sporting interest ... no one will know how you made it and what you're using ... but if you don't want it, you don't need it ... I don't see anything like that in it ....+ I don't use any indices ... I have a couple of low-yielding tools but I don't use them either ... just messing with tools and indices sometimes just for fun ... i got a good view of the market ... i'm not a beginner ... i'm just a beginner ... i'm sure i'll find it.
(I can't code and can't do maths) ... But in general - to do a little research, to look for grails is sometimes interesting )) although in vain ... like a lot of people here...
I don't get the faith part...
it's not faith but balls of steel that count in trading... sell on the rise buy on the fall ... that's all ... (roughly of course ... do not take it literally ... analysis should of course be as complete as possible) ...
This is a quote from Frankus.
http://www.procapital.ru/showthread.php?p=303478&highlight=%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%BA#post303478
"You see Vlad, the trick (I'm just familiar with waveformers)-if they don't use an FA filter, they just WRITE SCENarios (more likely, less likely - but LITERALLY SCENarios).
And then monitor their EXECUTION (there are criteria for cancelling a scenario).
Thus, the 1.23 scenario is only VERIOUS (the dollar may not be there against the euro). The question is: What are the probabilities?
That is, NOT ANY wave trader will combine the markup and other FA thinking - it's kind of a no-go in wave trading methodology.
Simply, being at a fork, one chooses a SCENario and begins to follow it, HAVING a SCENario CANCELLATION CRITERIUM. At the moment the scenario ceases to work (either having worked out completely or having been cancelled by the cancellation criterion), the person takes a profit or a loss and moves on to a different scenario (which is folded at the moment the previous one ends by drawing a new markup or by taking an alternative old one)."
....
TIME YOU WILL UNDERSTAND (and some will never understand) that it DOES NOT MATTER WHERE THE INFORMATION CAME FROM (from an indicator, from a price chart by constructing from analysis of banks logic of action, etc.) - only its VARIABILITY AND RELIABILITY OF VARIABILITY IS IMPORTANT.
From here on it is my reasoning. The Elliott Theory is based on the axiom that the market has a clear structure, five waves in the direction of the main trend, three waves in the opposite direction.
Now about the prediction, if I'm not mistaken Gauss said "prediction as well as measurement of value without accompanying accuracy is meaningless". After all, 99% of predictions look like this: "The next station is "1.2395" (sorry, of course, but it's just above the branch)", I immediately have questions, what if 1.2394 is not there ? When will it come true, tomorrow ? In an hour ? Or at the end of the year ?
There is a simple truth, the longer is the forecast horizon, the less accurate it is (the error elipsis increases), and if a trader cannot say what the price will be in 5 min, then what can we say about forecasts for a week in advance, when 1000 and 1 events will happen that will destroy the forecast.
The way I see it, one way or another, the trader is looking for decision points, it may be fibo, waves, wagons and etc. and coming to this point he must act according to the plan. The forecast can ruin any event, but my plan, only myself. And it is better to have 2 plans, a main plan and a backup. That's exactly what Gerczyk does, every day he selects 2 sheets, shares. One is sell and the other is buy, he picks those shares that in his opinion have the highest probability of movement in the chosen direction and works quite successfully...
Vizard:
...about faith I don't really understand...
Now for faith, written a lot, but my conclusion is this, we can make predictions, but the probability of one is never achieved, hence we cannot tell whether our next trade will be profitable or unprofitable. So we should have a TS with positive P&L but only in points, no increasing of lot from one trade to another will save us if the P&L in pips is less than one. Hence, there is only one way out, search for entry points on the chart that allow us to enter with a minuscule stop, in the direction of greater probability of movement. It's written about it in all the books...
Larry Williams. "The Long-Term Secrets of Short-Term Trading."
My most important rule. "I believe my trade will be unprofitable... very unprofitable."
Always use stops. That's how he ends his book.
Bill Williams"trading chaos"
With all his theory he brings us to the conclusion "I can - these two words represent the confidence you have because you know ... you are in a 'no risk' position because you have so constructed your tradingstrategy to achieve it." That's him about the fifth highest level, traders who enjoy their work.
Jesse Livermore
"My experience has been that the real money made from speculation has been made in trades that made a profit from the start."
"I lost money when I broke my own rules, but when I followed the rules, I made money"
"Just remember, without discipline, a clear strategy and a concise plan a speculator is bound to fall into an emotional trap..."
"The one thing I regret the most in my entire financial career is that I didn't pay enough attention to this rule"
Z.U. Alexey, I'm sorry, it's not really about waves, but I hope I didn't write it in vain. I hope I didn't write it in vain at all but I may come in handy for somebody. It's amazing, it all seems so simple and understandable. And at the same time it is so complicated. You go all the time as if on a spiral, returning to its own circles, and with each time, look at it somehow different, as if the third eye opens. And you start to see things in these phrases that you didn't see before...
You are strange =) There will be no tops, we just need to finish the fifth wave with growth and then collapse downwards.
I haven't followed this thread for a long time, but it seems that it was you who suggested that the franc would rise from the level you made up, which by the way did not happen.
So why should the EUR crash down? Of course it will go down, but at what level and when and how long to wait.
Why wait for the fall, if it is still going up? It's called working with the trend. And what makes you think it is the 5th wave?
I haven't followed this thread for a long time, but it seems that it was you who suggested that the franc would rise from the level you made up, which by the way did not happen.
So why should the EUR crash down? Of course it will go down, but at what level and when and how long to wait.
Why wait for the fall, if it is still going up? It's called working with the trend. And what makes you think it is the 5th wave?
If you were paying more attention, you would have seen that I have NEVER made forecasts on the USDCHF, in fact, I do not draw its wave structure, only the pound and the Eurobucks. And I have posted a forecast on the chiff from a wave maker.
Further, the fifth wave is in correction, well, this is the wave theory, I should not tell it to you =) Read my posts and previous forecasts, everything seems to be clear there.
This is a quote from Frankus.
http://www.procapital.ru/showthread.php?p=303478&highlight=%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%BA#post303478
"You see Vlad, the trick (I'm just familiar with waveformers)-if they don't use an FA filter, they just WRITE SCENarios (more likely, less likely - but LITERALLY SCENarios).
And then monitor their EXECUTION (there are criteria for cancelling a scenario).
Thus, the 1.23 scenario is only VERIOUS (the dollar may not be there against the euro). The question is: What are the probabilities?
That is, NOT ANY wave trader will combine the markup and other FA thinking - it's kind of a no-go in wave trading methodology.
Simply, being at a fork, one chooses a SCENARIO and begins to follow it, HAVING the SCENARIO CANCELLATION CRITERIA. At the moment the scenario ceases to work (either having fully worked out or having been cancelled by the cancellation criterion), the person fixes a profit or a loss and moves on to another scenario (which is formed at the moment the previous one ends by drawing a new layout or by taking an alternative old one)."