The interaction of markets. - page 14

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timbo >>:

... наличие корреляции не означает наличие каузальных связей.

Есть масса примеров, когда корреляция близка к единице, а связи никакой нет.

This is absolutely true.
 
Demi писал(а) >>


>> I'll put it this way, the vast majority of countries in the world do not benefit from currency appreciation.

However, they also avoid the opposite - galloping devaluation


>> why is that?

When the topic was created, the interaction is meant to be backed up by something, not just a random correlation.

 
Alex5757000 >>:
Это абсолютная правда.


if the correlation is close to one, there is a connection!

when you say absolute truth, think! Only a MASTER can say that! A person can only say "I think" or "I believe".

you behave more modestly! MASTER is a curse on us for being proud! He'll show up and fuck us all in the ass!

And in general, the correlation in the financial markets is always understandable

always

 
Roman_trader >>:


А почему?

Когда тема создавалась имелось ввиду именно взаимодействие подкрепленное чем то а не просто случайная кореляция.


you need to read any textbook on Fundamentals of Economic Theory.

Exporting for the country means capital flowing into the country, importing means capital flowing out of the country. We need to maintain a positive balance. You need more exports. The cheaper the national currency, the more profitable the export.

Understand?

It's in three lines of 92 page textbook, fuck!

 
NiKkel >>:


если корреляция близка к единице, то связь есть!

вы когда говорите - абсолютная правда, то думайте! Так говорить может только МАСТЕР! человек может говорит только "я думаю" или "я считаю".

вы скромнее себя ведите! МАСТЕР - проклятие, насланное на нас за гордыню! Щас появится и в ж..у нас всех пошлет!

а вообще корреляция на фин рынках всегда носит объяснимый характер

всегда

Modern science, especially sociology, economics and political science, has moved on from an approach where statistical relationships between phenomena were almost identical to causal relationships. This no longer works - there are often situations where a correlation is identified, its statistical significance is shown at a high level of confidence but causality is not, and this can usually only be proved empirically. For example, take any two correlated pairs and try to make money on them. If you succeed in showing a steadily growing equity curve - there is a connection, if not - it means that the entire correlation is nothing more than a statistical chimera.
 
NiKkel >>:


это вам нужно почитать любой учебник по Основам экономической теории.

Экспорт для страны - в страну притекает капитал, импорт - из страны утекает капитал. Нужно поддерживать положительный баланс. Экспорта нужно больше. Чем дешевле нац валюта - тем выгоднее экспорт.

Понимай?

Это в трех строках 92 стр. учебника, нах!

Have you read one textbook and already started teaching others?

Look at the ratio of foreign trade balance to GDP of developed countries - you will understand how insignificant it is on the scale of the economy. Both exports and imports are vital for any nation, as no one can produce everything in the world and live as a subsistence economy. A living example is North Korea, actually put in such conditions. Therefore, if a country suddenly starts to worry about exporters, trying to prevent the revaluation of the currency, or brakes the devaluation, trying to protect imports - this is nothing more than a current affairs, the government's reaction to the situation. And the phrase "exports are good and imports are bad" is worthy only of a trash-talking student.

 
NiKkel писал(а) >>


if the correlation is close to one, there is a link!


>> Of course there is!

For example: http: //correlation.livejournal.com/4251.html

 
That's what I'm saying...
 
Demi >>:

Тебе привели пример, как могут иметь место связи между явлениями, которые на первый взгляд не связаны. ПРИМЕР, понимаешь?

They are unconnected on the second and third and all subsequent views. Your example is a search for trends in random rambling. It is very difficult to find the black cat in a dark room, especially if it is not there. But you can search for a long time, encouraging yourself with the thought that you are about to catch it.

And what does your personal car that you've been digging out of the snow have to do with road accident statistics?

 
alsu >>:

Прочитал один учебник и уже начал учить других?

Посмотри на соотношение внешнеторгового сальдо к ВВП развитых стран - поймешь, насколько оно ничтожно в масштабах экономики. Для любого государства жизненно важен как экспорт, так и импорт, так как никто не может производить всего на свете и жить натуральным хозяйством. Живой пример - Северная Корея, фактически поставленная в такие условия. Поэтому если страна вдруг начинает беспокоиться за экспортеров, стремясь недопустить ревальвации валюты, или наоборот, тормозит девальвацию, пытаясь защитить импорт, - это не более, чем текущие дела, реакция государства на конъюнктуру. А фраза"экспорт это хорошо, а импорт плохо" достойна только студента-троешника.


i did not know i had a chronicler keeping count of the textbooks i have read! nice

Thank you for the triplets.

1. Most countries in the world have a dominant economic policy that supports export-oriented industries and protects domestic producers. This is achieved through an exchange rate policy aimed at a reasonable depreciation of the national currency. Get it? The reasoning "both exports and imports are vital, as no one can produce everything in the world and live a subsistence lifestyle" is, frankly, childish.

2. Once again - most countries! Have you thought long and hard about the example - North Korea? There is a concept in matstatistics - extreme values. Do you understand?

3. To make it clearer, I will try to explain with an example: The U.S. and EU governments have repeatedly made strong demands to China to set a floating Yuan exchange rate. Why, you ask us. Because, the US and EU governments will tell you, the yuan is artificially undervalued against the USD and EUR in order to support export-oriented industries. Understand?

Throw away all your textbooks - read one, but a good one)

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