The interaction of markets. - page 13
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Very interesting, has the master not mentioned currencies reacting to the growth of the world economy? As well as gold and oil?
What about Japan? Doesn't it benefit when their currency goes up? How do they keep it down? Is the yen following the nickel?
Очень интересно, а мастер не обмолвился о валютах реагирующих на рост мировой экономики? А также золоте и нефте?
Ask the Master questions more specifically!
What exactly are you interested in?
Only the MASTER knows how currencies will behave during the economic growth phase! It is not clear what will happen to the euro and so on.
Gold will be guided by inflation.
There are a lot of theories and conspiracy theories about oil.
Watch the correlation and you will be happy.
А что там с японией? Ей вроде не выгодно когда их валюта ростет? Как они сдерживают рост? Ростетли ена вслед на никеем?
The MASTER is silent about the yen. This means that from the MASTER's point of view, the yen is one of the most difficult currencies to predict. The correlation of the yen with other assets is weak, dangling as the Central Bank sees fit:
JPY
GBP
0.75
EUR
0.46
AUD
0.21
CAD
-0.28
CHF
0.01
NZD
0.32
GOLD
-0.55
QM
0.70
А что там с японией? Ей вроде не выгодно когда их валюта ростет? Как они сдерживают рост? Ростетли ена вслед на никеем?
I'll put it this way - the vast majority of countries in the world do not want their currency to grow.
But they also avoid the opposite - a galloping devaluation
1. Корреляция – это следствие, а не причина. Если она близка к -1 или 1, значит есть какая-то причина почему два ряда взаимосвязаны.
... so maybe there is a correlation, and maybe there is no correlation at all. The main mantra of statistics: the presence of a correlation does not mean there is a causal relationship.
There are plenty of examples where the correlation is close to one and there is no link. Imports of fresh lemons and deaths on US roads:
... значит возможно есть взаимосвязь, а возможно и нет никакой связи. Главная мантра статистики: наличие корреляции не означает наличие каузальных связей.
Есть масса примеров, когда корреляция близка к единице, а связи никакой нет. Импорт свежих лимонов и смертность на дорогах США:
there are no mantras in the statistics
correlation is neither an effect nor a cause. Is the thermometer a consequence or a cause? correlation is also a tool that captures correlations
There are false correlations.
Although there are people who believe that there are no false correlations. If there is a correlation, there is always a correlation. Whether we understand it or not is another question.
In your example - in a year when there was a harsh winter there were more road deaths due to ice, snow, etc. The harsh winter had a negative impact on citrus crops. Fewer citrus fruits - less of them imported into the US. Could it be?
в статистике мантр нету
In your example, in a year when there was a harsh winter, there were more road deaths due to ice, snow,
etc.The harsh winter had a negative impact on citrus crops. Fewer citrus fruits - less of them imported into the US. Could it be?
And so for five years in a row? What does a cold winter have to do with it? Have you seen the American roads, how much ice is there? Ask about the statistics on road fatalities, what causes them and what time of year they happen. Find out where Mexico is. You can also google the correlation between the number of pirates and the greenhouse effect, which is also close to one.
Да что ты говоришь? Попробуй поиск в гугле на Correlation does not imply causation и ты увидишь как статистики всего мира повторяют эту мантру, но пипл и всё равно не верит и продолжает искать связи там где их нет.
И так пять лет подряд? При чём тут холодная зима? Ты американские дороги видел, какой там лёд? Поинтересуйся статистикой смертей на дорогах, от чего они случаются и в какое время года. Заодно выясни где находится Мексика. Можешь ещё погуглить на тему связи между количеством пиратов и парниковым эффектом, там тоже корреляция близка к единице.
why mantra? Mantra is an incantation.
I've seen American roads and I spent four hours digging a car out of the snow this winter outside Washington, D.C., when it went off an icy road. So? What the fuck does it matter what the road is like if there's a layer of ice on it?
You've been given an example of how there can be connections between phenomena that don't seem to be connected. EXAMPLE, you know?
Do you think Mexico always has the same temperature and rainfall all year round? Paradise land?
An example, get it?
Try to understand the thought, ok?
Why so aggressive?
You better drop it.
or you'll be like Risk. And then you'll be a master. There's nowhere else to go